stock market was up today...

[Rasputin_Vol]

Stack

They won't until it's too late...

 

[Orangeburst]

China would be hurting themselves by ramping up an economic war with the US. They don’t have the internal natural resources to support themselves. They’d starve their population without the agriculture from the Western countries. They benefit from the US military enabling free shipping channels that they depend on being safe. China also gets to exploit US consumers to turbo charge their economy. The US needs strong leadership to stand up against the criminal CCP. Instead we have Hunter’s Dad and hypocrites owned by Big Tech. Strong leadership could also make the US energy independent and OPEC irrelevant.

You dont think any of what you stated is self evident?
Think about the bolded.

 

[Velo Vol]

Bill Miller thinks things are cozy? I will sleep better now

Nope. Read the whole letter. But big picture this is correct, and more useful than listening to posters here crying that doom is just around the corner, year after year after year.

Over the past decade or so my letters have been focused mostly on saying the same thing: we are in a bull market that began in March of 2009 and continues, accompanied by the typical and inevitable pullbacks and corrections. Its end will come either when stocks get too expensive relative to bonds or when earnings decline, neither of which is the case now. There have been a few other themes: since no one has privileged access to the future, forecasting the market is a waste of time. It is more useful to try and understand what is happening now and give up trying to predict what is going to happen. In the post-war period the US stock market has gone up in around 70% of the years because the US economy grows most of the time. Odds much less favorable than that have made casino owners very rich, yet most investors try to guess the 30% of the time stocks decline, or even worse spend time trying to surf, to no avail, the quarterly up and down waves in the market. Most of the returns in stocks are concentrated in sharp bursts beginning in periods of great pessimism or fear, as we saw most recently in the 2020 pandemic decline. We believe time, not timing, is key to building wealth in the stock market.

 

[BreatheUT]

McDonald's higher U.S. menu prices fuel earnings beat; chain raises sales forecast



https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/mcdonalds-mcd-q3-2021-earnings.html

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

McDonald's higher U.S. menu prices fuel earnings beat; chain raises sales forecast



https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/mcdonalds-mcd-q3-2021-earnings.html

I have a position in MCD. I’d kind of like to ditch it because it’s doesn’t have a healthy menu. But I keep it primarily because of their real estate holdings.

 

[Velo Vol]

I have a position in MCD. I’d kind of like to ditch it because it’s doesn’t have a healthy menu. But I keep it primarily because of their real estate holdings.

Socially conscious investing?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Socially conscious investing?

Partly. I’d like to see more healthy options on their menu, but I can also respect that they are more profitable by not straying from their formula. If people are eating too much bad ****, that’s entirely on them.

I also own Pepsi which peddles garbage food and beverages. But they aren’t forcing their products on anybody. Everybody has choices. I’ve had Hershey on my watch lists for years… they aren’t selling nutrition either. Nothing wrong selling stuff that people can enjoy though. Beyond and Impossible interest me. But Beyond isn’t profitable and Impossible hasn’t hit the public equity markets yet. Both have attractive, under $10B, market caps. I may not need more “food” exposure though. I own KR (Kroger) and Kraft-Heinz and whatever Wendy’s/Tim Horton have evolved into (Restaurant Brands and WEN I guess). I’m kind of interested in the 2 farm issues (LAND and FPI), but they aren’t profitable either… although that could be from accelerated cost recovery/depreciation from acquisitions. I’ve not attempted to dig into their financial filings.

I’ve also wanted to add reefer and alcohol to my holdings. Constellation (STZ) seems like a good company and is exposed to both. Maybe SAM, DEO, BF, TAP. So many attractive companies. Can’t own them all though.

Dexcom (DXCM) is a nice healthcare stock if I ever feel guilty about investing in the corn syrup peddlers.

 

[Velo Vol]

Partly.

I hadn't seen this side of you before. Good to know.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I hadn't seen this side of you before. Good to know.

Well, I’m a vegetarian and I’m disappointed that, other than breakfast, I can’t buy a meal at MCD.

I’d like to own only companies 100% aligned with what I support, but those really don’t exist. Even if a company’s product sync with my social preferences there are always customers, vendors, and employees that don't. So in my world any of the capitalists are better than the morally corrupt CCP. I’ll never include Tyson (TSN) as a LT hold though.

 

[Velo Vol]

Well, I’m a vegetarian and I’m disappointed that, other than breakfast, I can’t buy a meal at MCD.

I’d like to own only companies 100% aligned with what I support, but those really don’t exist. Even if a company’s product sync with my social preferences there are always customers, vendors, and employees that don't. So in my world any of the capitalists are better than the morally corrupt CCP. I’ll never include Tyson (TSN) as a LT hold though.

Another fun fact (so am I).

What about gambling companies? Any qualms with those? I think sports betting could become quite addicting now that it's legal on your phone.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Another fun fact (so am I).

What about gambling companies? Any qualms with those? I think sports betting could become quite addicting now that it's legal on your phone.

I have no problem owning sin stocks. I currently own PENN and recently traded DraftKing (DKNG). I don’t gamble myself, but that is because I understand basic probability. If adults are going to make bad decisions I don’t mind capitalizing. So do therapists that profit by treating addictions.

I’d rather steer clear of companies that test on animals, but healthcare is one of my favorite sectors so that is nearly unavoidable. But I do consider any information that I come across. I’d probably ditch my 3 pharma stocks if I knew exactly what they’ve got going on in their labs.

I have zero issues owning defense stocks because I want our military to be better than the really bad guys. I’m not aligned with the Leftists at all because I believe that the best weaponry is essential to protect freedom and there are a lot of evil players in the world wanting to steal it.

I’ve never owned tobacco directly, but that’s because their customer base is shrinking as they die off. Nice dividends with that industry though. Again, adults are free to smoke or not. Not my concern what decisions they make.

 

[volkyries]

I was surprised at the veggie offerings at Taco Bell. They have become our go to fast food on road trips and stuff. Good if you like beans anyway.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I was surprised at the veggie offerings at Taco Bell. They have become our go to fast food on road trips and stuff. Good if you like beans anyway.

Taco Bell is the best for fast vegetarian. They can easily make vegan as well. Chipotle is great, but I bet their menu is loaded with sodium. Burger King has the Impossible Whopper, but it is targeting people that want something exactly like beef. McDonsld’s and Wendy’s need to up their game.

 

[85SugarVol]

I respect several posters here. You guys have been wise over the years and know much more than I know about investing.

I am gonna ask this 1 more time though because my understanding of logic does not side with the advice I keep getting here. Go take a look at the commodities thread. Every poster in there says the bubble is about to burst. Retail will get wrecked very very soon bc they will have no supplies to sell. The housing market is already running out of supplies....and properties are WAY over valued. My wife is a realtor. I know this to be fact. We are on the cusp of a major market correction right??? How much 30%? 25% 20% ?? I don't know.

Please tell me why i shouldn't pull my meager $77k 401k out of the market now....sell HIGH....then buy back in LOW when everything is on sale in 2022? Logic says that is a great ideA right???

Whats the risk there? Missing out on maybe .8% growth for a few months if the bubble does NOT bust? 1500 bucks or maybe 3k over 6 months? Versus losing $20k easily if i stay in the market and do nothing?

I get the statements here that over time, even with recessions every 8 years on average, the market outpaces inflation and makes money generally if you stay in. I get that...also that trying to time the market can be difficult....

But we were overdue for a recession when Trump was elected 5 years ago. We are nearly at double the "every 8 year" average (2024) and every single indicator i can see says we are about to take a beating....

When it seems as close to a 100% lock as we are ever gonna get about predicting a big market correction....why should i leave our money in there to lose a big chunk when I don't have to???

If you were 44 with likely 20 years to live and this was the only money for you to leave your family would yall leave it there to lose 20 or 30%??? Why can i not figure this out....am i missing something? Please help me understand guys.

What you’re considering could work. Then again, it might not.

We believe time, not timing, is key to building wealth in the stock market.

 

[85SugarVol]

I have a position in MCD. I’d kind of like to ditch it because it’s doesn’t have a healthy menu. But I keep it primarily because of their real estate holdings.

Never would have guessed this

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Never would have guessed this

I’d “KIND OF like to”, not “want to” or “will”. Creating value for the share owners is the goal of being long equity securities, not saving the world.

 

[85SugarVol]

I’d “KIND OF like to”, not “want to” or “will”. Creating value for the share owners is the goal of being long equity securities, not saving the world.

I’ll invest in anything that I believe has the ability to deliver a desired rate of return.

 

[NorthDallas40]

I’ll invest in anything that I believe has the ability to deliver a desired rate of return.

If clubbing baby seals for oil provides a stock with a steady growth rate and dividend I’ll buy it while I protest outside their processing facility

 

[85SugarVol]

Anybody planning any portfolio rotations into new Sectors or Caps for 2021?

Financials & Energy obviously had a great 2020.
Small Caps may be due for a breakout.

Anybody eyeing any specific areas of the Market for next year?

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Well, I’m a vegetarian and I’m disappointed that, other than breakfast, I can’t buy a meal at MCD.

I’d like to own only companies 100% aligned with what I support, but those really don’t exist. Even if a company’s product sync with my social preferences there are always customers, vendors, and employees that don't. So in my world any of the capitalists are better than the morally corrupt CCP. I’ll never include Tyson (TSN) as a LT hold though.

I have taste buds and can't buy a meal at MCD

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Anybody planning any portfolio rotations into new Sectors or Caps for 2021?

Financials & Energy obviously had a great 2020.
Small Caps may be due for a breakout.

Anybody eyeing any specific areas of the Market for next year?

Everything is expensive right now but I’m sitting on too much cash. The only really big move that I expect I’ll make are a couple of non-public real estate partnerships. Maybe add to my two favorite sectors… healthcare and financials. Energy and infrastructure should have a lot of stimulus money being injected but have already run up in anticipation of the coming spending. Still might add there as individual names pull back. Martin Marietta Materials? Caterpillar? Railroads? Defense should pop in 2022 if the Rs look like they’ll take back some power from the Ds as the mid-terms approach and the CCP keeps stirring up ****. Might put 1% or 2% in something blockchain or crypto picks and shovels (COIN, HOOD, Cathie Wood and/or Elon). Probably an established broker/exchange or 3 that is likely to exploit crypto trading.

 

[norrislakevol]

Anybody planning any portfolio rotations into new Sectors or Caps for 2021?

Financials & Energy obviously had a great 2020.
Small Caps may be due for a breakout.

Anybody eyeing any specific areas of the Market for next year?

I hope small caps are due a breakout. Although a small part of my portfolio dollar wise, I've been hanging onto a hand full.

I am nervous with consumer sentiment dropping, inflation concerns, and rising energy prices. That generally leads to a big pull back in the markets eventually. I am currently sitting at 50 percent cash because of this. Not a position I like to be in.

 

[85SugarVol]

Everything is expensive right now but I’m sitting on too much cash. The only really big move that I expect I’ll make are a couple of non-public real estate partnerships. Maybe add to my two favorite sectors… healthcare and financials. Energy and infrastructure should have a lot of stimulus money being injected but have already run up in anticipation of the coming spending. Still might add there as individual names pull back. Martin Marietta Materials? Caterpillar? Railroads? Defense should pop in 2022 if the Rs look like they’ll take back some power from the Ds as the mid-terms approach and the CCP keeps stirring up ****. Might put 1% or 2% in something blockchain or crypto picks and shovels (COIN, HOOD, Cathie Wood and/or Elon). Probably an established broker/exchange or 3 that is likely to exploit crypto trading.

I’ve been looking at a few BDCs (similar to REITs) like Apollo & Ares. They function similar to Private Equity funds. Often have significant RE & Healthcare exposures.

I feel like it would be chasing to jump on Energy now, but I do like Heathcare & Financials going forward.

I moved a lot out of traditional fixed income recently and am looking for best options to re-deploy it that still generates income.

You reference Cathie Wood - have you invested in any of the ARK Funds?

 

[85SugarVol]

I hope small caps are due a breakout. Although a small part of my portfolio dollar wise, I've been hanging onto a hand full.

I am nervous with consumer sentiment dropping, inflation concerns, and rising energy prices. That generally leads to a big pull back in the markets eventually. I am currently sitting at 50 percent cash because of this. Not a position I like to be in.

50% in cash???

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I’ve been looking at a few BDCs (similar to REITs) like Apollo & Ares. They function similar to Private Equity funds. Often have significant RE & Healthcare exposures.

I feel like it would be chasing to jump on Energy now, but I do like Heathcare & Financials going forward.

I moved a lot out of traditional fixed income recently and am looking for best options to re-deploy it that still generates income.

You reference Cathie Wood - have you invested in any of the ARK Funds?

Not yet. I watch the ETFs though. I don’t know 90% of the securities in those funds. She sure influences prices on some stock names.