stock market was up today...

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I dont think that is mine. It shows YTD 9% plus gain and what i read last night showed minus 1.something% for mine YTD...as long as YTD means since jan.1 2021 and not different fiscal quarters or something? I will go log into my account and post what fund it is...

You might be seeing the average yield rather than the total returns for the fund. Fixed income funds calculate the yield based on the stated interest rates and dividends of the investments within the fund.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

I was wrong . It is down since 2 months ago but up for the year . Here is what it shows ...if there is something stupid or dangerous in the screenshot that i dont see please tell me so i can delete...

Edit: thanks again TGO...i dont know what i am doing and it scares me. I build things...apartments for the last 12 years and before that houses for 16 years. Am a shadetree mechanic. I like working with my hands or a set of blueprints because there are no surprises. Its my comfort zone. Investing is so foreign to me that i dont know what I don't know...which scares me as a Dad. Appreciate your time...its quite valuable. Thanks

 

[VolStrom]

Thank you very much for your thoughtful post my Vol brother. I know in the past you have similarly helped me in the same manner when i got my yearly statement and was confused and worried. I grew up poor because my parents were divorced and am middle class now...if there is such a thing. ..a rung or 2 above the working poor i guess but no where near golf course living or a McMansion. Have 1 kid in college and my 13yo daughter still in Christian school with college to surely follow as well. My wife is just now driving her 1st ever brand new vehicle at 39...a hyundai SUV...i have never had a brand new car or truck and we prob have $60k sweat equity in a modest $135k home...we both work since my kids are both in school. I am 44yo....

My 401k is all we have for retirement. Thats why i am so worried about it losing a third or half its value when this housing bubble bursts with the recession. Losing 40k would be devastating to me. I would probably shed a tear in private honestly....even though money and material things have never really been very important to me. Losing the ability to help my kids or wife if disaster strikes would just kill me. I fear that. Not being able to protect and provide for them...

Anyway thanks a bunch for your advice and God bless you and yours. Really appreciate your insight on these matters .

Go Vols

You've got a long way to go before you'll need your retirement money. I agree with TGO, it's best to not move money around in your 401k in anticipation of the market tanking. I was in my early 50's in 2008 when the market tanked and didn't touch a dime of my 401k money and while it was painful watching hundreds of thousands evaporate I stuck with it and also kept my contributions maxed out. Within 5 years or so I had nearly doubled my pre market crash dollar value. Look at it as a sale when the market goes down because you get more for the same money and when it does go back up you'll recover that much more quickly. Good luck with whatever you decide.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

You might be in PHTJX rather than LTIUX. The fund symbol should be somewhere on your statement.

Principal LifeTime Hybrid 2035 Instl (PHTJX) Quote | Morningstar

 

[85SugarVol]

@marcusluvsvols

Leave your money in the target date
Auto-Contribute regularly

You’ll be fine

 

[marcusluvsvols]

Thanks guys. Appreciate the help. We all know this train is going in the ditch eventually....i can go all year and not worry too much but when i get my statements it worries the crap out of me honestly...with my family's medical history, i should have about 20 years left on this big chuck of rock and metal...barring an accident , cancer arriving early or Christ returning...thats really best case scenario . I want to leave at least a small chunk to help my wife and kids attain a measure of financial security. They deserve my best.

 

[RikidyBones]

Thanks guys. Appreciate the help. We all know this train is going in the ditch eventually....i can go all year and not worry too much but when i get my statements it worries the crap out of me honestly...with my family's medical history, i should have about 20 years left on this big chuck of rock and metal...barring an accident , cancer arriving early or Christ returning...thats really best case scenario . I want to leave at least a small chunk to help my wife and kids attain a measure of financial security. They deserve my best.

We need the rapture asap though.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

I respect several posters here. You guys have been wise over the years and know much more than I know about investing.

I am gonna ask this 1 more time though because my understanding of logic does not side with the advice I keep getting here. Go take a look at the commodities thread. Every poster in there says the bubble is about to burst. Retail will get wrecked very very soon bc they will have no supplies to sell. The housing market is already running out of supplies....and properties are WAY over valued. My wife is a realtor. I know this to be fact. We are on the cusp of a major market correction right??? How much 30%? 25% 20% ?? I don't know.

Please tell me why i shouldn't pull my meager $77k 401k out of the market now....sell HIGH....then buy back in LOW when everything is on sale in 2022? Logic says that is a great ideA right???

Whats the risk there? Missing out on maybe .8% growth for a few months if the bubble does NOT bust? 1500 bucks or maybe 3k over 6 months? Versus losing $20k easily if i stay in the market and do nothing?

I get the statements here that over time, even with recessions every 8 years on average, the market outpaces inflation and makes money generally if you stay in. I get that...also that trying to time the market can be difficult....

But we were overdue for a recession when Trump was elected 5 years ago. We are nearly at double the "every 8 year" average (2024) and every single indicator i can see says we are about to take a beating....

When it seems as close to a 100% lock as we are ever gonna get about predicting a big market correction....why should i leave our money in there to lose a big chunk when I don't have to???

If you were 44 with likely 20 years to live and this was the only money for you to leave your family would yall leave it there to lose 20 or 30%??? Why can i not figure this out....am i missing something? Please help me understand guys.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I respect several posters here. You guys have been wise over the years and know much more than I know about investing.

I am gonna ask this 1 more time though because my understanding of logic does not side with the advice I keep getting here. Go take a look at the commodities thread. Every poster in there says the bubble is about to burst. Retail will get wrecked very very soon bc they will have no supplies to sell. The housing market is already running out of supplies....and properties are WAY over valued. My wife is a realtor. I know this to be fact. We are on the cusp of a major market correction right??? How much 30%? 25% 20% ?? I don't know.

Please tell me why i shouldn't pull my meager $77k 401k out of the market now....sell HIGH....then buy back in LOW when everything is on sale in 2022? Logic says that is a great ideA right???

Whats the risk there? Missing out on maybe .8% growth for a few months if the bubble does NOT bust? 1500 bucks or maybe 3k over 6 months? Versus losing $20k easily if i stay in the market and do nothing?

I get the statements here that over time, even with recessions every 8 years on average, the market outpaces inflation and makes money generally if you stay in. I get that...also that trying to time the market can be difficult....

But we were overdue for a recession when Trump was elected 5 years ago. We are nearly at double the "every 8 year" average (2024) and every single indicator i can see says we are about to take a beating....

When it seems as close to a 100% lock as we are ever gonna get about predicting a big market correction....why should i leave our money in there to lose a big chunk when I don't have to???

If you were 44 with likely 20 years to live and this was the only money for you to leave your family would yall leave it there to lose 20 or 30%??? Why can i not figure this out....am i missing something? Please help me understand guys.

One thing to keep in mind is that stock markets are typically forward looking and won’t necessarily move in exact (positive) correlation with the current or near term economic conditions. So when store inventories appear to indicate a pending financial disaster, the information is probably already priced in. Future (unknown) interest rates and employment numbers are maybe more important than current retail activity. And housing turnover could be facing a seasonal headwind right now. However 2022 can certainly be impacted with pieces needed for new construction, like plumbing and HVAC components, stuck on container ships and offline in the supply chain.

Generally, trying to time markets results in missing the big upward moves. And again, with your new money invested, pullbacks in equity markets result in more shares being purchased (at the depressed share prices) within your account.

If you are worrying about lower equity markets and it is adversely affecting your life then it would be a good idea to reallocate some of your funds to nearer retirement dates (like 2025 or 2030). The nearer term funds are more focused on preserving your investment rather than growing it. The returns will be more modest but the risks are lowered.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

$62,500 is 4x doubles away from a million dollars. A 10% average return is very possible to achieve in US equity markets over time. $62,500 growing 10% per year becomes a million dollars in about 28-30 years. Growing at 7-7.5% it would take about 40 years to grow to a million.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Looks like he is also FOS.


Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman says he voted for Joe Biden based on his values, not his pocketbook

Interesting... I wonder how he feels about that Biden vote right now?


"All But Dead": Manchin Opposition Kills Billionaire Tax | ZeroHedge

"It's a stupid idea," said hedge fund manager and billionaire, Leon Cooperman, who warned of "unnatural" economic reactions.

"The progressives are out to lunch," he added. "We should not be attacking wealthy people."

"Are we a capitalist nation or are we a socialist nation?"

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, meanwhile, said that Cooperman is in her sights - saying on Tuesday "Leon Cooperman, I'm looking at you, baby."

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Interesting... I wonder how he feels about that Biden vote right now?


"All But Dead": Manchin Opposition Kills Billionaire Tax | ZeroHedge

"It's a stupid idea," said hedge fund manager and billionaire, Leon Cooperman, who warned of "unnatural" economic reactions.

"The progressives are out to lunch," he added. "We should not be attacking wealthy people."

"Are we a capitalist nation or are we a socialist nation?"

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, meanwhile, said that Cooperman is in her sights - saying on Tuesday "Leon Cooperman, I'm looking at you, baby."

PocahOntaS

 

[RikidyBones]

Interesting... I wonder how he feels about that Biden vote right now?


"All But Dead": Manchin Opposition Kills Billionaire Tax | ZeroHedge

"It's a stupid idea," said hedge fund manager and billionaire, Leon Cooperman, who warned of "unnatural" economic reactions.

"The progressives are out to lunch," he added. "We should not be attacking wealthy people."

"Are we a capitalist nation or are we a socialist nation?"

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, meanwhile, said that Cooperman is in her sights - saying on Tuesday "Leon Cooperman, I'm looking at you, baby."

They deserve what they get.

 

[NorthDallas40]

So I’m guessing the market is cheering the lousy GDP growth data and current inflation as that would mean no interest rates coming for a while longer? But that doesn’t really make a lot of since due to rates being a goto method to curb inflation.

 

[Vol423]

So I’m guessing the market is cheering the lousy GDP growth data and current inflation as that would mean no interest rates coming for a while longer? But that doesn’t really make a lot of since due to rates being a goto method to curb inflation.

I had the same thought this morning. We're headed for total economic calamity.

 

[NorthDallas40]

I had the same thought this morning. We're headed for total economic calamity.

The Fed has no ammo since they would bankrupt the Treasury by raising the cost of their deficit spending. We’re screwed.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I had the same thought this morning. We're headed for total economic calamity.

Man, I've been thinking that for close to a decade. It is amazing how many tricks these guys have pulled.

 

[headhunter15]

This administration may get us in such a mess that no future administration can get out of…

 

[Orangeburst]

Socially, economically, and spiritually, everything is upside down.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Socially, economically, and spiritually, everything is upside down.

Clown Town

 

[Orangeburst]

Clown Town

Waiting on the CCP and others like OPEC to drop the dollar as reserve currency. America will be down for the count. Unbelievable hubris.."I sittith as a Queen"

 

[Caculator]

Stack

 

[Velo Vol]

Seems relevant here.

Bill Miller 3Q 2021 Market Letter

When I am asked what I worry about in the market, the answer usually is “nothing”, because everyone else in the market seems to spend an inordinate amount of time worrying, and so all of the relevant worries seem to be covered. My worries won’t have any impact except to detract from something much more useful, which is trying to make good long-term investment decisions.

 

[Orangeburst]

Seems relevant here.

Bill Miller 3Q 2021 Market Letter

Bill Miller thinks things are cozy? I will sleep better now

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Waiting on the CCP and others like OPEC to drop the dollar as reserve currency. America will be down for the count. Unbelievable hubris.."I sittith as a Queen"

China would be hurting themselves by ramping up an economic war with the US. They don’t have the internal natural resources to support themselves. They’d starve their population without the agriculture from the Western countries. They benefit from the US military enabling free shipping channels that they depend on being safe. China also gets to exploit US consumers to turbo charge their economy. The US needs strong leadership to stand up against the criminal CCP. Instead we have Hunter’s Dad and hypocrites owned by Big Tech. Strong leadership could also make the US energy independent and OPEC irrelevant.