stock market was up today...

#12,627
#12,627
Velo Vol said:
2022? No, the inflation rate will go down this year. It's almost a certainty. You think gas prices are going up another 40%?
Click to expand...

Gas obviously isn’t the only thing measured. For example Biden just doubled the tariff on lumber. Surely we both agree that will cause more inflation in a product that already has extreme inflation.

Given he has no interest in increasing drilling, and wants to move to more expensive forms of energy, I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see energy go up more than 40%.

Do you believe inflation next year will be below 3-4%?
 
#12,631
#12,631
Vol8188 said:
Gas obviously isn’t the only thing measured. For example Biden just doubled the tariff on lumber. Surely we both agree that will cause more inflation in a product that already has extreme inflation.

Given he has no interest in increasing drilling, and wants to move to more expensive forms of energy, I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see energy go up more than 40%.

Do you believe inflation next year will be below 3-4%?
Click to expand...
To be technical, the reason the tariff went up is because that's the way the law is written, but obviously it will increase prices.

https://www.cato.org/blog/us-trade-remedies-duties-are-more-just-rate

3-4% is a pretty good guestimate for 2022 inflation. That's lower than it is now.

Remember, the Fed is going to raise interest rates if it stays high for too long.
 
#12,632
#12,632
Velo Vol said:
To be technical, the reason the tariff went up is because that's the way the law is written, but obviously it will increase prices.

https://www.cato.org/blog/us-trade-remedies-duties-are-more-just-rate

3-4% is a pretty good guestimate for 2022 inflation. That's lower than it is now.

Remember, the Fed is going to raise interest rates if it stays high for too long.
Click to expand...

If the fed raises interest rates you’ll have an insane budget crisis. Not gonna happen.

Also not sure if you linked the right article. It’s from May when the rate was lower and I don’t see where it states what you were looking for

If anything it seems to agree that the rates are determined by a department under the control of the president
 
#12,633
#12,633
Vol8188 said:
If the fed raises interest rates you’ll have an insane budget crisis. Not gonna happen.

Also not sure if you linked the right article. It’s from May when the rate was lower and I don’t see where it states what you were looking for

If anything it seems to agree that the rates are determined by a department under the control of the president
Click to expand...
The Fed raises short-term rates.

The Commerce Department is the entity that raised the tariff, but I think they do it pursuant to a law that dates back to the '80s. (if X happens, then our response will be to raise the tariff)
 
#12,634
#12,634
Velo Vol said:
To be technical, the reason the tariff went up is because that's the way the law is written, but obviously it will increase prices.

https://www.cato.org/blog/us-trade-remedies-duties-are-more-just-rate

3-4% is a pretty good guestimate for 2022 inflation. That's lower than it is now.

Remember, the Fed is going to raise interest rates if it stays high for too long.
Click to expand...
I doubt they raise, but if they do, it won't be anything significant... 10-20 basis points, maybe.

And had we be using calculations from 1980 and before, we probably hadn't had a real inflation rate of 3-4% in over a decade.
Alternate Inflation Charts

1641075150809.png
 
#12,635
#12,635
Rasputin_Vol said:
Why the need for adjusting?
Click to expand...
Which year should they have stopped adding things to the formula?

FIDUqlRXEAE2upL
 
Last edited:
#12,637
#12,637
Rasputin_Vol said:
That has nothing to do with their calculations. In the early 1990's they adjusted the inflation numbers by either doing tricks like substituting products or removing items.
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It's exactly what they're doing.

People can debate about the specific inputs they're using, and how well that reflects inflation for an "average" person (inflation affects everyone differently), but the fact that they periodically re-weight the formula is the correct thing to do.
 
#12,638
#12,638
Velo Vol said:
The Fed raises short-term rates.

The Commerce Department is the entity that raised the tariff, but I think they do it pursuant to a law that dates back to the '80s. (if X happens, then our response will be to raise the tariff)
Click to expand...

I think we should clarify a few things here:

1. 4% inflation on top of this past year would be a lot. If it is above 4% will you finally admit concern?

2. The Commerce Department is under the executive branch. Even if your claim that they’re obligated by law to do so is true, Biden nor any other democrat is speaking out about it nor are they trying to end it despite having control of congress. So you have to accept his role in the doubling of tariffs that is going to continue the increase in housing prices for Americans.

3. Inflation makes the wealth gap far worse. Yet no one on the left seems concerned with it. Do you deny that fact or just not care
 
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#12,639
#12,639
Vol8188 said:
I think we should clarify a few things here:

1. 4% inflation on top of this past year would be a lot. If it is above 4% will you finally admit concern?

2. The Commerce Department is under the executive branch. Even if your claim that they’re obligated by law to do so is true, Biden nor any other democrat is speaking out about it nor are they trying to end it despite having control of congress. So you have to accept his role in the doubling of tariffs that is going to continue the increase in housing prices for Americans.

3. Inflation makes the wealth gap far worse. Yet no one on the left seems concerned with it. Do you deny that fact or just not care
Click to expand...
Inflation obviously is a concern. It's going to go down, the question is how much.

Not sure about timber, but any of this "buy American" stuff, which Biden has been embracing, is going to raise prices.

Low-wage people feel gas/food prices more. One thing on this, though, is that wages have increased the fastest at the bottom of the scale, so it's been partially offset.
 
#12,640
#12,640
Velo Vol said:
Inflation obviously is a concern. It's going to go down, the question is how much.

Not sure about timber, but any of this "buy American" stuff, which Biden has been embracing, is going to raise prices.

Low-wage people feel gas/food prices more. One thing on this, though, is that wages have increased the fastest at the bottom of the scale, so it's been partially offset.
Click to expand...

Yet inflation has outpaced those gains in wages even at the bottom of the scale. I also feel like you’re trying to deflect and pretend only gas and food prices harm the poor.

Inflation harms the poor and helps the rich. If you’re living in public housing, you have no mortgage. So the man with a million dollar mortgage will benefit from inflation and you will not.

If you don’t own a car or a house, you likely have very little debt. Corporations and the wealthy have plenty of debt
 
#12,642
#12,642
Vol8188 said:
I think we should clarify a few things here:

1. 4% inflation on top of this past year would be a lot. If it is above 4% will you finally admit concern?

2. The Commerce Department is under the executive branch. Even if your claim that they’re obligated by law to do so is true, Biden nor any other democrat is speaking out about it nor are they trying to end it despite having control of congress. So you have to accept his role in the doubling of tariffs that is going to continue the increase in housing prices for Americans.

3. Inflation makes the wealth gap far worse. Yet no one on the left seems concerned with it. Do you deny that fact or just not care
Click to expand...
LOL Exactly. WRT #3, one has to naively believe that the left GAF about the wealth gap to begin with.
 
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#12,645
#12,645
Vol8188 said:
lol I like by that he doesn’t mean the current prices you see will go down, just that they’ll rise at a lesser rate
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Exactly. In other words, the prices we are paying right now are as good as they will be. That entire nonsense about "transitory inflation" is bulls^^t if the prices don't fall back down to 2019 levels.
 
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