stock market was up today...

#12,683
#12,683
#12,685
#12,685
85SugarVol said:
Should we be buying or selling? @NorthDallas40

Lockheed Martin Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Results Webcast
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Not where I work but honestly I don’t see how you can not hold some of LM, Boeing, L3, and RTX all in your portfolio. The environment has been challenging for us but from what I’ve seen we did OK. At least for now. You have to remember defense systems being built today are built with stuff ordered 18 months ago. It’s gonna get tight later in the year I think personally but I expect defense companies to get preferential treatment we always do.
 
#12,686
#12,686
NorthDallas40 said:
Not where I work but honestly I don’t see how you can not hold some of LM, Boeing, L3, and RTX all in your portfolio. The environment has been challenging for us but from what I’ve seen we did OK. At least for now. You have to remember defense systems being built today are built with stuff ordered 18 months ago. It’s gonna get tight later in the year I think personally but I expect defense companies to get preferential treatment we always do.
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I thought you did. My bad.
 
#12,687
#12,687
85SugarVol said:
I thought you did. My bad.
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I’m at one of the big ones but not that one. And if I were at that one I’d probably not give you a specific answer 😬. But “we” put up enough performance to keep the investors happy I think and I expect the industry as a whole to point that up too. But I think our supply chain hit will start showing up later this year and I expect that to apply to the industry as a whole. This industry is a lethargic slug and lags commercial market dynamics generally.

So TLDR is I think maintain whatever position you have in these companies. For now…
 
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#12,688
#12,688
Velo Vol said:
Complete hypothetical, obviously, but if the Fed announced today that it was immediately ceasing purchases, how much would the market sell off?
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There almost certainly would be a 20-25% drawdown in the major indexes, perhaps even over a matter of days. Who knows what would happen after that. The immediate cessation of it rather than a phase out over a matter of months would cause a huge amount of panic.

See 1994, except that would be worse.
 
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#12,694
NorthDallas40 said:
Ah. I’ve already removed one of the big ones from the possibility list so I won’t comment anymore there. I’ll come clean in a few months when I retire.
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Roger that Dallas. I even commented to give a wink and nod when you retire as I know they are losing some brain power and to divest. Just messin

Edit: Hey if Congress can get an inside track...us peons need a nugget every now and then
 
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#12,695
#12,695
05_never_again said:
There almost certainly would be a 20-25% drawdown in the major indexes, perhaps even over a matter of days. Who knows what would happen after that. The immediate cessation of it rather than a phase out over a matter of months would cause a huge amount of panic.

See 1994, except that would be worse.
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That seems high to me. It's "only" buying $60 billion this month.
 
#12,696
#12,696
Velo Vol said:
That seems high to me. It's "only" buying $60 billion this month.
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But the markets are so dependent on it, and your hypothetical said "immediately ceasing purchases" (not a phased wind-down). The markets would be absolutely blind-sided by an immediate stop to it.

IMO the immediate nature of it, rather than the stop itself, would be the trigger for such a decline.
 
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#12,697
05_never_again said:
But the markets are so dependent on it, and your hypothetical said "immediately ceasing purchases" (not a phased wind-down). The markets would be absolutely blind-sided by an immediate stop to it.

IMO the immediate nature of it, rather than the stop itself, would be the trigger for such a decline.
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Sometimes ripping off the band aid isn't as bad as the anticipation of slowly pulling it off.
 
#12,698
#12,698
Velo Vol said:
Sometimes ripping off the band aid isn't as bad as the anticipation of slowly pulling it off.
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We've already seen what happens when they try to normalize policy, and it isn't pretty. The late 2018 selloff was due to worries about faster than anticipated rate rises and the S&P fell 17% from 12/3 to 12/26 and had a total drawdown of about 21% in 3 months.

Taking a heroin addict immediately off the heroin is a recipe for disaster.
 
#12,699
#12,699
05_never_again said:
We've already seen what happens when they try to normalize policy, and it isn't pretty. The late 2018 selloff was due to worries about faster than anticipated rate rises and the S&P fell 17% from 12/3 to 12/26 and had a total drawdown of about 21% in 3 months.

Taking a heroin addict immediately off the heroin is a recipe for disaster.
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They were raising rates and reducing the balance sheet. This would be more gentle.

bandage-band-aid.gif
 
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#12,700
NorthDallas40 said:
Not where I work but honestly I don’t see how you can not hold some of LM, Boeing, L3, and RTX all in your portfolio. The environment has been challenging for us but from what I’ve seen we did OK. At least for now. You have to remember defense systems being built today are built with stuff ordered 18 months ago. It’s gonna get tight later in the year I think personally but I expect defense companies to get preferential treatment we always do.
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OMG this is so true. We are at the point where we plan as such that anything ordered after July just won’t make it to the dock by year-end. And there is risk with waiting that long.
 
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