stock market was up today...

[Majors]

I am pulling the plug guys.

Lost 5.7% ytd on my 401k...bare shelves at all stores including groceries for petes sake...and the Fed planning to raise interests rates at least a couple times this year in the midst of runaway double digit inflation(actual% not claimed) already lost 4 grand this year. Sitting at 79k. I will get back in next year or when a conservative administration of adults is in charge.

Badly need your help though. My 401k is with Principal....what is a recession proof place to put my money? Dont care if it doesnt earn honestly....just care that it CAN NOT lose. I would cash the whole thing out but I cant without quitting my job...

Please help with good suggestions, you guys know this stuff 1000x better than me. Biden admin bout to put us in a 2008 style recession or worse.

If you're young, 20's/30's I'd stay put and if you can pump more if you can. Had the same fears in 2008 like you mentioned and rebounded nicely. Hurting today but will ride out my yearly increase and take advantage of the price.

 

[Majors]

How long till you retire?

I'm sensing you about to say buy, buy, buy based on his age response.

 

[Vol737]

DJI .... down negative -942 right now. It keeps jumping around. Bloody Monday.
I hear it's the Ukraine situation that has everyone the jitters.

Last night market futures were waaay up. I just laughed and was like, you guys are on crack. Woke up this am and futures were down. My question was, how in the world were the future not dialed in to the events shaping up over the weekend in Ukraine? They at least came back down to earth before the markets opened this am.

 

[05_never_again]

Last night market futures were waaay up. I just laughed and was like, you guys are on crack. Woke up this am and futures were down. My question was, how in the world were the future not dialed in to the events shaping up over the weekend in Ukraine? They at least came back down to earth before the markets opened this am.

I don't think this decline (or any part of the decline from the most recent highs) has anything to do with Ukraine.

 

[FLVOL_79]

I don't think this decline (or any part of the decline from the most recent highs) has anything to do with Ukraine.

No. It has everything to do with Biden being a bumbling and clueless moron on a rudderless ship of stupid with his voters blowing hard to get the sails to move while simultaneously chanting "at least he isn't Trump MAH FEELS!@!!"

 

[05_never_again]

No. It has everything to do with Biden being a bumbling and clueless moron on a rudderless ship of stupid with his voters blowing hard to get the sails to move while simultaneously chanting "at least he isn't Trump MAH FEELS!@!!"

Doesn't have anything to do with that either.

 

[FLVOL_79]

Doesn't have anything to do with that either.

His policies, or lack there of, or a combination of each, are to blame.

 

[85SugarVol]

I'm sensing you about to say buy, buy, buy based on his age response.

No, but I was going to caution him not to sell, sell, sell based on his horizon.

 

[Vol737]

I don't think this decline (or any part of the decline from the most recent highs) has anything to do with Ukraine.

Oh, I think geopolitical events of this nature definitely spook markets to an extent. I do think most of it is our forward looking markets pricing in possible disappointing earnings reports, Fed rate increases forthcoming and an overall weaker economic outlook.

 

[Majors]

No, but I was going to caution him not to sell, sell, sell based on his horizon.

agree

 

[Ernest T. Vol]

One of those days when adding to a position is hard but if you're a long term investor is best. My pick today is MSFT currently $281...down 20% from an all time high of $349.67 on 11/22/21, earnings come out tomorrow after the bell and they hardly ever disappoint. Target price was $400 by several just a few weeks ago.

 

[volinbham]

I am pulling the plug guys.

Lost 5.7% ytd on my 401k...bare shelves at all stores including groceries for petes sake...and the Fed planning to raise interests rates at least a couple times this year in the midst of runaway double digit inflation(actual% not claimed) already lost 4 grand this year. Sitting at 79k. I will get back in next year or when a conservative administration of adults is in charge.

Badly need your help though. My 401k is with Principal....what is a recession proof place to put my money? Dont care if it doesnt earn honestly....just care that it CAN NOT lose. I would cash the whole thing out but I cant without quitting my job...

Please help with good suggestions, you guys know this stuff 1000x better than me. Biden admin bout to put us in a 2008 style recession or worse.

Since it's your 401K when do you need it? If you have a long time horizon (7 years +) you may want to ride it out. Selling now and getting back in next year is a recipe for ensuring your losses to date.

If you are totally risk averse I recommend not getting back in. Money Markets, High Yield Savings (like Marcus) can get you 1/2 a percent now and will go up as the Fed raises rates.

The key ingredients are 1) how much time do you have before you need the money and 2) do you have any risk tolerance at all or do days like this cause you undo stress.

Put a different way:

The reasons to sell today are: 1) I need this money in the next couple years OR 2) I can't tolerate the risk I currently have.

If you sell for either of these reasons it doesn't make sense to get back in next year because the risk is still there and you need the money. If these reasons aren't in play then consider riding it out.

 

[05_never_again]

Oh, I think geopolitical events of this nature definitely spook markets to an extent. I do think most of it is our forward looking markets pricing in possible disappointing earnings reports, Fed rate increases forthcoming and an overall weaker economic outlook.

It's been straight down since the December meeting Fed minutes release back on January 5, perhaps made worse by some lackluster earnings reports (NFLX in particular).

These are Fed and liquidity-driven markets, and have been since the 2009 bottom. The correlation between market movements and Fed liquidity add/tapering (or talk of tapering) is incredible. It's really just that simple.

 

[FLVOL_79]

I am pulling the plug guys.

Lost 5.7% ytd on my 401k...bare shelves at all stores including groceries for petes sake...and the Fed planning to raise interests rates at least a couple times this year in the midst of runaway double digit inflation(actual% not claimed) already lost 4 grand this year. Sitting at 79k. I will get back in next year or when a conservative administration of adults is in charge.

Badly need your help though. My 401k is with Principal....what is a recession proof place to put my money? Dont care if it doesnt earn honestly....just care that it CAN NOT lose. I would cash the whole thing out but I cant without quitting my job...

Please help with good suggestions, you guys know this stuff 1000x better than me. Biden admin bout to put us in a 2008 style recession or worse.

Don't sweat the losses as long as you aren't like retiring in a year. I lost about $90,000 when Covid really kicked into gear, but recouped and doubled my earnings less than a year later. For me personally I plan to taper off my aggressive strategy with about 5 years left until my retirement ( 16 years away).

 

[85SugarVol]

Since it's your 401K when do you need it? If you have a long time horizon (7 years +) you may want to ride it out. Selling now and getting back in next year is a recipe for ensuring your losses to date.

If you are totally risk averse I recommend not getting back in. Money Markets, High Yield Savings (like Marcus) can get you 1/2 a percent now and will go up as the Fed raises rates.

The key ingredients are 1) how much time do you have before you need the money and 2) do you have any risk tolerance at all or do days like this cause you undo stress.

Put a different way:

The reasons to sell today are: 1) I need this money in the next couple years OR 2) I can't tolerate the risk I currently have.

If you sell for either of these reasons it doesn't make sense to get back in next year because the risk is still there and you need the money. If these reasons aren't in play then consider riding it out.

I’d leave it at just 3+ years to retirement.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

If you're young, 20's/30's I'd stay put and if you can pump more if you can. Had the same fears in 2008 like you mentioned and rebounded nicely. Hurting today but will ride out my yearly increase and take advantage of the price.

Agree with this. If young, it's basically just a paper loss you ride back up. If you truly want to move it your 401k provider should have a plethora of low risk options.

 

[rjd970]

Agree with this. If young, it's basically just a paper loss you ride back up. If you truly want to move it your 401k provider should have a plethora of low risk options.

Yep - selling now only realizes the losses. I started my 401K about 20 years ago and I'm about 20-ish years out from retirement, I'm pumping more in. Once I'm about 10 years out I'll move to a more low risk profile while still contributing up to matching from my employer and ride it out until I'm sitting at home doing nothing for the rest of my life.

 

[lawgator1]

Dow was down 1100 two hours ago.

Now it is down less than 400.

Anybody play the VIX on a day trade basis?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I am pulling the plug guys.

Lost 5.7% ytd on my 401k...bare shelves at all stores including groceries for petes sake...and the Fed planning to raise interests rates at least a couple times this year in the midst of runaway double digit inflation(actual% not claimed) already lost 4 grand this year. Sitting at 79k. I will get back in next year or when a conservative administration of adults is in charge.

Badly need your help though. My 401k is with Principal....what is a recession proof place to put my money? Dont care if it doesnt earn honestly....just care that it CAN NOT lose. I would cash the whole thing out but I cant without quitting my job...

Please help with good suggestions, you guys know this stuff 1000x better than me. Biden admin bout to put us in a 2008 style recession or worse.

Don’t sell if possible. 10-20% pullbacks are perfectly normal every year or two. With new money put it in nearer term targeted retirement date funds in order to reduce risk. For example, instead of a 2035 target date fund put new money in the 2025 target date fund.

Pullbacks mean that when investors are putting the same amount of dollars in every month, they get more shares purchased in their funds.

 

[Vol423]

Well, that was a fun damn roller coaster ride today!

 

[VolStrom]

That was funny, go negative and fake a crash and then end up green. Days like this are why I never look at the market other than every few months unless I read about it crapping the bed like today. Today is a good day to test resolve.

 

[Velo Vol]

Well, that was a fun damn roller coaster ride today!

Probably a few more to come.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

How long till you retire?

I will never be able to retire, but have known that for decades. I am 45yo and a superintendent for a construction company. Better question is how much longer will i have a 401k? Maybe 10 years? Who knows honestly. Not in a white collar field where 401ks are the norm. Got 1 in college and a 14yo that will be there not long after the Son finishes...

I watched the 08 recession break my Dads retirement $....lost over $100k about 5 years before retirement. Luckily he had USAF Colonel retirement and SS....but died about 6 years after retiring from cancer...i have nothing but my 401k and will probably never see a dime of SS due to cancer and our inept govt. I am not cool with losing even more $ because of the Liberal mass hysteria event known as CV19 nor the dementia addled administration fudging up everything they can get their hands on.

Even with runaway inflation ...bare shelves...ignorant(or intentional?) Market interference with pipelines...lumber...tarriffs...a laundry list of poor decisions and inept leadership...even with ALL of that, i would probably leave my $ in the market if it looked like there was ANY reason to be optimistic about the future . ANY logical reason to think a MEGA recession wasnt imminent. I dont think there is any. Period. Supply chain issues may cripple this economy for a couple years even if we had good leadership. We simply do not. National shortage of truck drivers of 15k to 20k drivers already....so Numbnuts makes an EO clamping down on ANY driver entering the US must have a Vax ID card. Lumber prices are still thru the roof and Biden makes another brilliant EO adding a double digit tarriff to lumber products entering the US. Guess where the majority of our studs, plate, headers etc at my job building apartments comes from? Effing Canada!!! We buy them by the BOXCAR. I cant even get all the lumber i need to finish my project right now...everything takes 1 to 2 WEEKS to get an 18 wheeler of 2x10s or 2x6s etc...normal is 2 to 3 days...and this stupid mofo adds tarriffs to THAT quagmire??? A person cannot be that damn stupid.

This is intentional. Should have been clear when Numbnuts filed more than 50 preconceived EOs in his 1st 48hours in office...cancelling pipelines. Moratorium on any new drilling offshore etc etc. It isnt an accident when you wreck an economy by executive orders because they KNEW their "grenade toss" ideas would never make it thru the Senate (you know, the actual legislative body of our gov that is supposed to make the laws).

I want my money where the Bidens and Pelosi $ is. Where the fools who are destroying this country in every conceivable manner have THEIR money and stand to make a profit. If I cannot do that....please just direct me to somewhere i can put my little chump change life savings that these effing clowns cannot lose it all for me...just reduce its purchasing power by devaluing our currency. Dont think theres any way around that?

Thanks for your help guys. I am gonna try and sit this recession out. Hope to see yall on the other side.

 

[Ernest T. Vol]

Well, that was a fun damn roller coaster ride today!

Futures are not looking good tonight...Dow down over 300, Nas down nearly 2%.

 

[Vol737]

Futures are not looking good tonight...Dow down over 300, Nas down nearly 2%.

Volatility, baby! A traders dream. Some people made some money yesterday on that big swing back up.