stock market was up today...

#12,926
#12,926
norrislakevol said:
Taking another dump today. This downward slide will continue with shortages, inflation, fuel prices, ect for the next few months. No getting out of it, the first dominoes have begun to fall.
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Months? Oh, you are one of those people...

We are likely looking at a severe correction that won't just be "months"...
 
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#12,927
#12,927
Rasputin_Vol said:
Months? Oh, you are one of those people...

We are likely looking at a severe correction that won't just "months"...
Click to expand...

That certainly could be true. The two things that could make it shorter are the fact that if fuel prices get too high the economy crashes and that would send prices back down to earth. The labor market should be a little better even with a crash than we have seen before. Now if things get chaotic on a global scale then all bets are off.
 
#12,928
#12,928
norrislakevol said:
That certainly could be true. The two things that could make it shorter are the fact that if fuel prices get too high the economy crashes and that would send prices back down to earth. The labor market should be a little better even with a crash than we have seen before. Now if things get chaotic on a global scale then all bets are off.
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The likelihood of global chaos is far greater than a soft landing. We should have had a hard landing in 2008.
 
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#12,929
#12,929
Rasputin_Vol said:
The likelihood of global chaos is far greater than a soft landing. We should have had a hard landing in 2008.
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That's right, we should have. The feds should have never rewarded failure by bailing out failing companies. That only rewards failure. Now with COVID and other run away spending there are no more bullets left for the feds to shoot if there is an economic meltdown.
 
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#12,933
#12,933
Black Monday coming


FVIVmq6WUAAKXfa
 
#12,935
#12,935
Thunder Good-Oil said:
So….

Companies that have lots of unsold inventory built up AND use LIFO for their tax P&Ls are going to be more profitable (after tax P/L) on their other set of books with the higher COGS. Will Biden be taking credit for knocking it out of the park?
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In theory, Tax LIFO is timing only and not P/L (it would reverse out if a company sells all its inventory).

Just seeing once you get into the detail of each inventory category, results that can only occur when actual inflation far exceeds reported inflation.

Much like with job numbers and GDP numbers, they will likely "revise" them in the future
 
#12,940
#12,940
BigOrangeMojo said:
In theory, Tax LIFO is timing only and not P/L (it would reverse out if a company sells all its inventory).

Just seeing once you get into the detail of each inventory category, results that can only occur when actual inflation far exceeds reported inflation.

Much like with job numbers and GDP numbers, they will likely "revise" them in the future
Click to expand...

I guess it depends on what kind of inventory the companies hold and what type of company. Growing companies that replenish homogeneous items can defer for a long time or never draw counts to zero. But companies with unique, limited life inventories will cycle through. Finished goods for car companies for example, but perhaps not rolled steel in the raw materials inventories.

Inventory is one reason why I love Amazon. They sell it, but don’t take the risk of owning it. Of course AWS is the biggest reason to own AMZN right now.
 
#12,945
#12,945
I moved my 401k into fixed income two weeks ago. I will be getting my pension lump sum into my professionally managed IRA probably in the July/August crossover timeframe, it’s a 7 digit check to the left of the decimal. Later this year I will roll most of my 401k into the professionally managed IRA where we have agreed it’s going to all sit until later this year.

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#12,947
#12,947
BigOrangeMojo said:
In theory, Tax LIFO is timing only and not P/L (it would reverse out if a company sells all its inventory).

Just seeing once you get into the detail of each inventory category, results that can only occur when actual inflation far exceeds reported inflation.

Much like with job numbers and GDP numbers, they will likely "revise" them in the future
Click to expand...
You're correct that Tax LIFO would only be a timing issue if a company sold all its inventory. However, any company using Tax LIFO manages its inventory specifically to avoid that situation and to preserve the LIFO layers.
 
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#12,950
#12,950
lawgator1 said:
Which is having the larger inflationary impact:

A) oil prices
B) stimulus spending
C) war in Ukraine
D) supply chain disruptions

I think it's A, D, and B and C tied for third.
Click to expand...
The Covid Shutdowns.

This isn’t complicated. You can’t just turn off the economy and shut down supply chains.

Well, you can… Obviously
But not without a horrible cost. Hope it was worth it.
 
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