stock market was up today...

[Vol737]

Insanely too slow in taking action on rates and now the fed has forced themselves into a corner of using blunt force trauma. This whole thing screamed "take action now!" last year.

 

[Orangeburst]

Insanely too slow in taking action on rates and now the fed has forced themselves into a corner of using blunt force trauma. This whole thing screamed "take action now!" last year.

We just had another price increase on one of our primary pump products. 3rd one this year.
Received notice yesterday at 4:44PM and effective today! Whoa they usually give us at least 1-2 months

 

[Sandman 423]

Except that Trump promised to outspend Democrats if reelected. There was nothing to autopilot

You are really overstating the strength of the economy. It was going up but still on shaky foundations

How can we hold the loser to their campaign promises when the winner rarely follows through with theirs?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Except that Trump promised to outspend Democrats if reelected. There was nothing to autopilot

You are really overstating the strength of the economy. It was going up but still on shaky foundations

I don’t mind spending if it is used for tangible things. Repairing bridges, roads, airports, etc. isn’t necessarily bad if it helps jump starting the economy or creating things to make commerce more efficient. Just giving handouts is dumb when the ND is at $30.5 trillion. Unfortunately that is a practice of both Ds and Rs. Bush started with the stimulus checks nonsense.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Well, today hasn't been too bad compared to what we've seen recently. Looks like we've hit bottom.

 

[Vol423]

Well, today hasn't been too bad compared to what we've seen recently. Looks like we've hit bottom.

No we haven't. The market never goes straight up or straight down.

 

[85SugarVol]

Well, today hasn't been too bad compared to what we've seen recently. Looks like we've hit bottom.

You should buy now then.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

You should buy now then.

I will double up...

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Predictions?

0.75% is mine. 2pm.

1.0% could be like ripping off the band-aid and not necessarily a bad thing. 0.5% would just be stoopid.

 

[05_never_again]

Predictions?

0.75% is mine. 2pm.

1.0% could be like ripping off the band-aid and not necessarily a bad thing. 0.5% would just be stoopid.

I agree. They are so far behind, you can really argue they should do 100 bps.

The 2-year yield is sitting at 3.33% with a Fed Funds target at 0.75-1.00 and the effective rate at 83 bps. lol

 

[NorthDallas40]

Predictions?

0.75% is mine. 2pm.

1.0% could be like ripping off the band-aid and not necessarily a bad thing. 0.5% would just be stoopid.

I think anything other than .75% freaks out the market and it tanks faster. It’s going to tank anyway but that just accelerates it. The market is expecting .75% and based on current trading the FOMC will give them what they want for now. But if they were serious about curbing inflation it would be at least 1%

 

[allvol123]

75

 

[VolStrom]

They should let me run the fed, I'd go all out and put in an 8% increase and get it over with. There won't be a soft landing, it's going to be a hard crash.

 

[NorthDallas40]

They should let me run the fed, I'd go all out and put in an 8% increase and get it over with. There won't be a soft landing, it's going to be a hard crash.

I don’t see how they can manage the unicorn soft landing here. They have very little powder left to use.

 

[allvol123]

Like the parents that put their kids in time out. Don’t work.

 

[VolStrom]

I don’t see how they can manage the unicorn soft landing here. They have very little powder left to use.

Powder? They pissed on their powder a year ago when they decided to do nothing.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

QT and ongoing hikes. Equity markets gonna be bumpy for a while.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Any mention of the dot plot? I think 75 was a foregone conclusion and want to see where they are planning to wind up

 

[NorthDallas40]

QT and ongoing hikes. Equity markets gonna be bumpy for a while.

I think the downward trend continues. Maybe some up/down in the local day to day but the trend line is going to be downward. And that trend line accelerates once a recession is actually confirmed.

 

[lawgator1]

Part of the issue is that it is impossible to tell how much of the monthly inflation numbers is truly temporary and will end with covid effects tailing off and supply chain restoration, or an end to Ukraine War, versus how much is endemic and systematic due to demand pressure that aren't transitory.

I'm not sure there is even a dividing line anymore.

And even if there was, I do not for one second believe that prices on all goods and services will then fall back to some "normal" spot. They will stay elevated because we are desensitized to it. A pound of ground beef only $7.90??? Woo hooo! (Never mind it was $6.50 three years ago).

Rarely do we see deflation of prices all the way back to pre-inflation numbers for the last go-'round.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

There could be a lot of wealth destroyed for those late jumping into real estate. But housing inflation will help to keep them even.

The golden era of low single digit mortgage rates could be done.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Dang. What did he just say to cause that equity market spike?

 

[VolStrom]

Part of the issue is that it is impossible to tell how much of the monthly inflation numbers is truly temporary and will end with covid effects tailing off and supply chain restoration, or an end to Ukraine War, versus how much is endemic and systematic due to demand pressure that aren't transitory.

I'm not sure there is even a dividing line anymore.

And even if there was, I do not for one second believe that prices on all goods and services will then fall back to some "normal" spot. They will stay elevated because we are desensitized to it. A pound of ground beef only $7.90??? Woo hooo! (Never mind it was $6.50 three years ago).

Rarely do we see deflation of prices all the way back to pre-inflation numbers for the last go-'round.

So what you are saying is the economy is permanently hosed, so get used to it?

 

[05_never_again]

Part of the issue is that it is impossible to tell how much of the monthly inflation numbers is truly temporary and will end with covid effects tailing off and supply chain restoration, or an end to Ukraine War, versus how much is endemic and systematic due to demand pressure that aren't transitory.

I'm not sure there is even a dividing line anymore.

And even if there was, I do not for one second believe that prices on all goods and services will then fall back to some "normal" spot. They will stay elevated because we are desensitized to it. A pound of ground beef only $7.90??? Woo hooo! (Never mind it was $6.50 three years ago).

Rarely do we see deflation of prices all the way back to pre-inflation numbers for the last go-'round.

It's due almost entirely due to COVID impacts, IMO. The supply chain issues COVID caused combined with the trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus combined with the economy opening back up in 2021.

I think the chart of the CRB Index kind of says it all. We had a great commodity (mostly energy and agriculture) bull market that ended in 2008 and then entered a protracted decline that did not end until COVID. Despite the huge rally the last several months across the commodity space, we still aren't even close to the all-time high in this index.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Here's an interesting chart on the price of gasoline over the years. Notice the recent spikes and think which party was in control during those times. What is interesting is that the average cost when adjusted for inflation was going down in times of record low inflation.... except for Soetoro's time in office.... and of course the current abortion that's in office. I can't wait to see 2022's numbers. But that's everybody else's fault but his, amiright?