stock market was up today...

[Majors]

I retired this year of all times. I’m not currently worried but that could change. My living money was already set aside from my long term growth money. I’m only down less than 10% on the year right now.

Congratulations on your retirement

 

[Majors]

I got time as well. It's problematic for anyone who was looking to retire in the next 12 - 24 months.

No doubt about that.

 

[TheDirector]

Dow under last 3 Presidents
Obama's last day - 19,700
Trump's last day - 30,930
Biden Today - 29,591

 

[Majors]

Dow under last 3 Presidents
Obama's last day - 19,700
Trump's last day - 30,930
Biden Today - 29,591

 

[Majors]

Dow under last 3 Presidents
Obama's last day - 19,700
Trump's last day - 30,930
Biden Today - 29,591

Took a manufactured virus to stop Trumps market and elect basement Joe.

 

[Zues1]

I got time as well. It's problematic for anyone who was looking to retire in the next 12 - 24 months.

Or anyone that has retired and is still in the market.

 

[BreatheUT]

Managing mediocrity

 

[norrislakevol]

History says once the rebound starts it’s 20% a year, you’re up like 50% at year four, and double your money at a decade.

NOTE the starting point for this is the rebound value not the value before decline started.

Generally yes, and with high interest rates the Nasdaq is getting crushed. Most of those companies will survive and you can get huge bargains near the bottom. As the Fed gradually eases intrest rates these stocks will sky rocket in the coming years. Can easily quadruple your money in some cases with individual stocks.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Generally yes, and with high interest rates the Nasdaq is getting crushed. Most of those companies will survive and you can get huge bargains near the bottom. As the Fed gradually eases intrest rates these stocks will sky rocket in the coming years. Can easily quadruple your money in some cases with individual stocks.

The NASDAQ as a whole looks really cheap right now based on 52 wk high. I think I heard META was trading at 12 PnE? But yeah how long will it be down.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Managing mediocrity

Mediocre would be awesome by comparison to this disaster.

81 million... thank you.

 

[508mikey]

I hope Ford goes bankrupt

 

[0nelilreb]

Pound falls to 37-year low against dollar as mini-budget puts markets in spin

 

[BreatheUT]

Mediocre would be awesome by comparison to this disaster.

81 million... thank you.

Good point

 

[Vol423]

Update this in another 12 months and this graph is going to look beautiful by comparison.

 

[Vol423]

The NASDAQ as a whole looks really cheap right now based on 52 wk high. I think I heard META was trading at 12 PnE? But yeah how long will it be down.

Based on trailing PE or forward PE? I would be VERY careful about judging any stock right now based on forward PE’s because those projected earnings are a joke. They’re going to get crushed.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Based on trailing PE or forward PE? I would be VERY careful about judging any stock right now based on forward PE’s because those projected earnings are a joke. They’re going to get crushed.

That I did not validate and you bring up a very valid specific point. And no I’m not interested in META was just pointing to that example as offered up

 

[StarRaider]

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Based on trailing PE or forward PE? I would be VERY careful about judging any stock right now based on forward PE’s because those projected earnings are a joke. They’re going to get crushed.

11.83x TTM P/E (trailing 12 months).
It had been in the 20s and 30s for years. Hasn’t seen 20+ since the end of January.

$3.61 Q2 2021 EPS

$3.22 Q3 2021 EPS
$3.67 Q4 2021 EPS
$2.72 Q1 2022 EPS
$2.46 Q2 2022 EPS
$12.07 EPS

$2.00 Q3 2022 EPS (est)

 

[NorthDallas40]

11.83x TTM P/E (trailing 12 months).
It had been in the 20s and 30s for years. Hasn’t seen 20+ since the end of January.

$3.61 Q2 2021 EPS

$3.22 Q3 2021 EPS
$3.67 Q4 2021 EPS
$2.72 Q1 2022 EPS
$2.46 Q2 2022 EPS
$12.07 EPS

$2.00 Q3 2022 EPS (est)

Thank you for providing that detail that I didn’t have. He was right it’s needed for a correct picture of the comment I referred to

 

[marcusluvsvols]

Do you think people can achieve a 20% recovery of lost returns in the next two years especially if the bottom isn't here? The Republicans winning congress will potentially only stop the bleeding.

I dont see it. Home values and realestate hasnt corrected yet...and inflation is allegedly curbing but groceries, gas, power etc are all stupid expensive. The things people CAN'T do without...not new clothes or cars. Thats why i sucked it up and got out down 10% and change. Am back up to 9% ytd since April. The market has taken about a 20% haircut this year...if i can finish the year down 8% or so, feel like i dodged a bullet with my measley 100k. The question i am always thinking about is when is the bottom (jump in) and what to invest in.

History says once the rebound starts it’s 20% a year, you’re up like 50% at year four, and double your money at a decade.

NOTE the starting point for this is the rebound value not the value before decline started.

This sounds wonderful...but the target date 401k i have always been invested in whether with Principal or Fidelity never has gains like that ytd...i am thinking seriously about picking stocks myself this time around....with yalls help being paramount.

Johnson and Johnson looks historically good from what i can tell and yall speak highly of it....they make good products vs their competition, and mostly sell things people need rather than want. Seems smart.

I have read here before about stocks that perform decently but pay a good dividend...not anything real estate related either...IIRC the REITs commercial stocks paid a huge dividend like 10%...but with all the remote work etc those scare me. But i have read here before about some good stocks that pay maybe 5% annually in dividends, at least thats a hedge against inflation, right? I lean heavily on what a couple posters here recommend like @Thunder Good-Oil etc.... then try to research stocks on my own. I dont always know what i am looking at though, and it scares me.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Thank you for providing that detail that I didn’t have. He was right it’s needed for a correct picture of the comment I referred to

It is historically a reasonable price. They are able to charge a huge premium since their advertising can be targeted directly at a business’s most likely customers. But Zuckerberg displayed how dangerous he is by pretty much stealing the election for Biden. They controlled the distribution of information. They promoted clearly fake disinformation and suppressed actual news. Then the Zuckerbucks were obscenely pumped into strategic areas. One person, one business should never have that much influence and control over our democratic system.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I dont see it. Home values and realestate hasnt corrected yet...and inflation is allegedly curbing but groceries, gas, power etc are all stupid expensive. The things people CAN'T do without...not new clothes or cars. Thats why i sucked it up and got out down 10% and change. Am back up to 9% ytd since April. The market has taken about a 20% haircut this year...if i can finish the year down 8% or so, feel like i dodged a bullet with my measley 100k. The question i am always thinking about is when is the bottom (jump in) and what to invest in.


This sounds wonderful...but the target date 401k i have always been invested in whether with Principal or Fidelity never has gains like that ytd...i am thinking seriously about picking stocks myself this time around....with yalls help being paramount.

Johnson and Johnson looks historically good from what i can tell and yall speak highly of it....they make good products vs their competition, and mostly sell things people need rather than want. Seems smart.

I have read here before about stocks that perform decently but pay a good dividend...not anything real estate related either...IIRC the REITs commercial stocks paid a huge dividend like 10%...but with all the remote work etc those scare me. But i have read here before about some good stocks that pay maybe 5% annually in dividends, at least thats a hedge against inflation, right? I lean heavily on what a couple posters here recommend like @Thunder Good-Oil etc.... then try to research stocks on my own. I dont always know what i am looking at though, and it scares me.

Johnson and Johnson has diversification like a healthcare mutual fund or ETF. But they have the advantage of being able to jettison poorly performing product lines. Open funds have to find somewhere to keep investing cash inflows from investors. If JNJ accumulates too much cash they can raise their dividend, buy back stock, make acquisitions, or just sit on the money until a better time to use it comes along. Funds usually have to own loser companies as well as their winners.

JNJ has an excellent, aging customer demo. But with any medical company they can be disrupted with healthcare/Medicare reform. They probably benefited from Trump not having another term to go after healthcare cost reductions for government programs. CVS is another healthcare company that pulls in revenue from many areas.

 

[Majors]

I don't care if the Dow jumps up to 33,000 Monday, you ain't getting your losses back that quick.

It would be a nice Monday though.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

Johnson and Johnson has diversification like a healthcare mutual fund or ETF. But they have the advantage of being able to jettison poorly performing product lines. Open funds have to find somewhere to keep investing cash inflows from investors. If JNJ accumulates too much cash they can raise their dividend, buy back stock, make acquisitions, or just sit on the money until a better time to use it comes along. Funds usually have to own loser companies as well as their winners.

JNJ has an excellent, aging customer demo. But with any medical company they can be disrupted with healthcare/Medicare reform. They probably benefited from Trump not having another term to go after healthcare cost reductions for government programs. CVS is another healthcare company that pulls in revenue from many areas.

Thanks brother. They are on my very short list of stocks to buy when i jump back in. Earlier this year, i thought about putting a big chunk of what i have in Google before they split...i got scared and didnt do it in April and instead pulled everything out and took a 10% haircut. My thinking was this: my kids are 14 and 21 and ANY. Question they have...they google it. Their entire generation does this, and we do it also. They dont have any meaningful competition as a search engine...but i read an article about all the different BS they were putting billions into besides the search engine and it scared me out of buying it. With my luck, i am sure i will end up regretting that decision down the road. Maybe when i jump back in the market i could put some $ there. I dont know..

Whenever you have some free time man, please help me find some more traditionally safe stocks that pay a good dividend? Nothing involving real estate though please. I really appreciate your wisdom and willingness to share it. I am not educated about the market and honestly do not know how much there is that I don't yet know....i see yall talk about profit/ earning ratios but i dont know good from bad or what's an acceptable range...i dont know what to make of info and therefor cannot make informed decisions which scares the sheit outta me tbh...i read blueprints. Can build most anything. I do not know how to read financial reports from companies or even stock info about previous performance other than very basic stuff like ytd/5yr history of earnings. Sorry that i am so ignorant about this stuff. Never had an opportunity to learn it though.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Thanks brother. They are on my very short list of stocks to buy when i jump back in. Earlier this year, i thought about putting a big chunk of what i have in Google before they split...i got scared and didnt do it in April and instead pulled everything out and took a 10% haircut. My thinking was this: my kids are 14 and 21 and ANY. Question they have...they google it. Their entire generation does this, and we do it also. They dont have any meaningful competition as a search engine...but i read an article about all the different BS they were putting billions into besides the search engine and it scared me out of buying it. With my luck, i am sure i will end up regretting that decision down the road. Maybe when i jump back in the market i could put some $ there. I dont know..

Whenever you have some free time man, please help me find some more traditionally safe stocks that pay a good dividend? Nothing involving real estate though please. I really appreciate your wisdom and willingness to share it. I am not educated about the market and honestly do not know how much there is that I don't yet know....i see yall talk about profit/ earning ratios but i dont know good from bad or what's an acceptable range...i dont know what to make of info and therefor cannot make informed decisions which scares the sheit outta me tbh...i read blueprints. Can build most anything. I do not know how to read financial reports from companies or even stock info about previous performance other than very basic stuff like ytd/5yr history of earnings. Sorry that i am so ignorant about this stuff. Never had an opportunity to learn it though.

It wouldn’t hurt to go pick up an intro to accounting textbook. Even if it is decades old, the basic concepts don’t change. Assets, liabilities (debts owed), equity (or “capital”), expenses, and revenue (which includes sales sales) are the basic elements and it is a good idea to become very familiar with those 5 accounts that are on EVERY organization’s financial statements. The first 3 on balance sheets and the other 2 on income statements.

Dividends (paid) are an interesting account. Financial beginners tend to think of the dividend payments to shareholders as an expense to a company - when it’s really a decrease in the equity (or a return of equity to shareholders). The bad thing about dividends is that the company is not allowed to deduct those payments on their income tax returns, but a shareholder receiving the dividend must report them as income on their personal tax returns. Equity grows when a company has earnings (or profits) and equity is reduced when a company has losses or pays out cash dividends to shareholders. So the lesson with dividends is that there is the simple math of a yield (dividends paid divided by a company’s share price) that is expressed as a percent. But you also must consider the dividend payout ratio in order to assess if the dividends being paid to shareholders is sustainable. It is comparing the dividends paid per share and dividing that dollar amount into a company’s earnings per share. A company with a higher dividend yield isn’t necessarily better if their earnings are low relative to the dividends that it pays. They can continue paying the dividend for a short while, even without the profits to cover the dividend payment - but eventually they will have to cut the dividend. Wall Street hates it when companies cut their dividends. The share price will crash.

The P/E ratio is a very important measure. It is simply a company’s share price divided by its earnings (or loss - yikes!) per share. A price/earnings (P/E) ratio above zero is always preferred (which translates to positive earnings instead of a loss). P/Es that get extremely high can indicate several things. A company’s share price has been bid up more than it is worth in equity markets. A company has excellent future prospects and the growth is worth paying a premium for. Also just the math - a company that just turned profitable might only have a few cents of earnings per share but is expected to easily grow to several dollars of earnings in the near term. A $100/share company that is widely expected (by stock analysts) to earn $5/share NEXT year has a reasonable FORWARD P/E of 20x earnings. But if it is only earning a penny per share in the current year then the P/E ration (or “earnings multiple” or simply “multiple”) would be $100 divided by $0.01 or 10,000x - which is an insane P/E if not considering the other facts. Sometimes you will see a P/E ratio published as NM (not meaningful) with an extreme like that.

P/E ratios can be compared to other companies in the same business (Ford, GM, and Tesla for example) or to the P/E calculated on a broad index average (S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial average (the Dow or the DJIA), and the NASDAQ 100 (the QQQs being a widely traded ETF that reflects the NASDAQ 100 “index”)), or PEs can be compared to historical PEs for the same company. .

Good places to scan for companies paying reliable, sustainable, hopefully growing dividends are the components of the S&P 500 and the 30 companies in the DJIA. Also, one of the large ETFs with the theme of including good dividend paying stocks. I’m not as familiar with the best of those funds but I’d start with the largest that are in the Vanguard, Fidelity, iShares (BlackRock), SPDRs (State Street), and Schwab fund families. Here is a good list:

https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/slideshows/best-dividend-etfs-to-buy-now

The cool thing about ETFs is that they publish the list of companies that they own in their funds. Those lists are in their annual reports that can be found on the fund websites.

I’ll look for a few names later, but I’m not as interested in dividends/income as some of the other posters. I’m more interested in long term growth in investment values and short term trading profits. There could easily be an entire VN thread focused only on dividends and income producing investments.

Another concept that most brokers offer for their account holders is automatic dividend reinvestment programs. They will take your dividends and automatically buy more shares of stock in the issuing company’s shares for you. It is an auto pilot for investors that believe strongly in a company (or a fund) and just want to grow their investment without pulling out the cash or be hassled with managing their own investments as closely.

Good dividend paying companies are often those with a long established track record (DJIA component companies for example). Low dividend payers shouldn’t be considered bad investments. Warren Buffet doesn’t like paying dividends - but Berkshire-Hathaway is an outstanding, well established, huge company that does not pay a dividend. Its P/E ratio is also very high at 50x plus, but BRK stock is a great LT investment.

Large petro and drug companies are good dividend payers. XOM, CVX, JNJ, MRK, and PFE to name a few. Large defense contractors can be good as well - LMT, General Dynamics, NOC, RTX, LHX.