stock market was up today...

#13,307
#13,307
The current tea leaves and Crystal ball reading of the Fed funds rate. We get another CPI reading around Oct 13 which should see if the Fed holds to 75 bps or goes higher. The markets have dropped on each funds rate announcement. Oct/Nov really looks like a great time to get in as it’s starting to shallow out and get ready for hopefully a markets rebound starting next year. Gonna be the sads on Wall Street Christmas bonuses I’d guess this year though.

 
#13,308
#13,308
NorthDallas40 said:
The current tea leaves and Crystal ball reading of the Fed funds rate. We get another CPI reading around Oct 13 which should see if the Fed holds to 75 bps or goes higher. The markets have dropped on each funds rate announcement. Oct/Nov really looks like a great time to get in as it’s starting to shallow out and get ready for hopefully a markets rebound starting next year. Gonna be the sads on Wall Street Christmas bonuses I’d guess this year though.

Click to expand...

I think his graph is nothing short of Wall Street fantasy land. There won't be any rate cuts in 2023, and possibly not in 2024 either.
 
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#13,311
#13,311
NorthDallas40 said:
Many agree with you and even Powell indicated it’s heavily dependent on real estate and employment
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My wife is a realtor...real estate is about to tank due to the interest rates. First time over 6% since 2007...and likely to raise to 7.5 probably before feds stop raising? Maybe 8? Allegedly Charlotte, like Austin TX is one of maybe 10 cities in the US where home values are NOT expected to decline...houses are waaaay overpriced right now. A recent article i read from the Charlotte Observer (biggest newspaper here) said that according to industry experts homes here are now overpriced by an average of $100,000 EACH. Granted, BoA and Wells Fargo both have towers here, so theres a sizable rich population amongst the rest that skews the average...but that is still a chunk when the same article said median home price was a little under $450k. Demand here is still relatively high. Other markets are gonna take a serious haircut, which means a lot of folks upside down with negative home equity.

Anyway...real estate doesnt look to be what leads us out of recession. It is still due a massive correction IMO. I am trying to figure out when to jump back in the market, but it looks like the bottom hasnt come yet. Probably next year?
 
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#13,312
#13,312
marcusluvsvols said:
My wife is a realtor...real estate is about to tank due to the interest rates. First time over 6% since 2007...and likely to raise to 7.5 probably before feds stop raising? Maybe 8? Allegedly Charlotte, like Austin TX is one of maybe 10 cities in the US where home values are NOT expected to decline...houses are waaaay overpriced right now. A recent article i read from the Charlotte Observer (biggest newspaper here) said that according to industry experts homes here are now overpriced by an average of $100,000 EACH. Granted, BoA and Wells Fargo both have towers here, so theres a sizable rich population amongst the rest that skews the average...but that is still a chunk when the same article said median home price was a little under $450k. Demand here is still relatively high. Other markets are gonna take a serious haircut, which means a lot of folks upside down with negative home equity.

Anyway...real estate doesnt look to be what leads us out of recession. It is still due a massive correction IMO. I am trying to figure out when to jump back in the market, but it looks like the bottom hasnt come yet. Probably next year?
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Yeah Powell’s indication was real estate or employment could either or both tank and have a negative impact going forward. Right now both are pointed to as buoying the economy not hurting it.
 
#13,313
#13,313
marcusluvsvols said:
My wife is a realtor...real estate is about to tank due to the interest rates. First time over 6% since 2007...and likely to raise to 7.5 probably before feds stop raising? Maybe 8? Allegedly Charlotte, like Austin TX is one of maybe 10 cities in the US where home values are NOT expected to decline...houses are waaaay overpriced right now. A recent article i read from the Charlotte Observer (biggest newspaper here) said that according to industry experts homes here are now overpriced by an average of $100,000 EACH. Granted, BoA and Wells Fargo both have towers here, so theres a sizable rich population amongst the rest that skews the average...but that is still a chunk when the same article said median home price was a little under $450k. Demand here is still relatively high. Other markets are gonna take a serious haircut, which means a lot of folks upside down with negative home equity.

Anyway...real estate doesnt look to be what leads us out of recession. It is still due a massive correction IMO. I am trying to figure out when to jump back in the market, but it looks like the bottom hasnt come yet. Probably next year?
Click to expand...
I'd say one good bit of news is that there is not an oversupply in most markets. People can't afford what's out there but at least we don't have the massive supply we had last bust cycle. There's still actually a shortage of housing in my area, but like I said earlier, it's beyond affordable for most people .
 
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#13,314
#13,314
NorthDallas40 said:
The current tea leaves and Crystal ball reading of the Fed funds rate. We get another CPI reading around Oct 13 which should see if the Fed holds to 75 bps or goes higher. The markets have dropped on each funds rate announcement. Oct/Nov really looks like a great time to get in as it’s starting to shallow out and get ready for hopefully a markets rebound starting next year. Gonna be the sads on Wall Street Christmas bonuses I’d guess this year though.

Click to expand...



If the theory is that the Fed waited too long and entered the picture AFTER the momentum already started, then why isn't it the case that they are now moving too quickly and not waiting to see whether the tide is turning ? (Either because of the rate hikes or improving supply chain dynamics?)
 
#13,315
#13,315
marcusluvsvols said:
My wife is a realtor...real estate is about to tank due to the interest rates. First time over 6% since 2007...and likely to raise to 7.5 probably before feds stop raising? Maybe 8? Allegedly Charlotte, like Austin TX is one of maybe 10 cities in the US where home values are NOT expected to decline...houses are waaaay overpriced right now. A recent article i read from the Charlotte Observer (biggest newspaper here) said that according to industry experts homes here are now overpriced by an average of $100,000 EACH. Granted, BoA and Wells Fargo both have towers here, so theres a sizable rich population amongst the rest that skews the average...but that is still a chunk when the same article said median home price was a little under $450k. Demand here is still relatively high. Other markets are gonna take a serious haircut, which means a lot of folks upside down with negative home equity.

Anyway...real estate doesnt look to be what leads us out of recession. It is still due a massive correction IMO. I am trying to figure out when to jump back in the market, but it looks like the bottom hasnt come yet. Probably next year?
Click to expand...

I have an informal indicator that I go by and that is houses for sale in my neighborhood and how fast they sell and for how much. Until the last couple of months, they would sell within 10 days and for as much as $50k over asking. Now I only see one house for sale, and it's been on the market for 6 weeks, and they've already lowered the price by $10k. They were asking the same price most of them sold for in the previous 6 months, talk about bad timing on their part.
My view doesn't mean crap, but just based on what I've seen in the last couple of years, the housing market is dead.
 
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#13,316
#13,316
VolStrom said:
I have an informal indicator that I go by and that is houses for sale in my neighborhood and how fast they sell and for how much. Until the last couple of months, they would sell within 10 days and for as much as $50k over asking. Now I only see one house for sale, and it's been on the market for 6 weeks, and they've already lowered the price by $10k. They were asking the same price most of them sold for in the previous 6 months, talk about bad timing on their part.
My view doesn't mean crap, but just based on what I've seen in the last couple of years, the housing market is dead.
Click to expand...

Anecdotal is better than anything we see from media.
 
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#13,317
#13,317
lawgator1 said:
If the theory is that the Fed waited too long and entered the picture AFTER the momentum already started, then why isn't it the case that they are now moving too quickly and not waiting to see whether the tide is turning ? (Either because of the rate hikes or improving supply chain dynamics?)
Click to expand...
My own opinion and that’s all it is is they waited too long and as a result they now have to overcompensate as it basically has momentum.
 
#13,318
#13,318
VolStrom said:
I have an informal indicator that I go by and that is houses for sale in my neighborhood and how fast they sell and for how much. Until the last couple of months, they would sell within 10 days and for as much as $50k over asking. Now I only see one house for sale, and it's been on the market for 6 weeks, and they've already lowered the price by $10k. They were asking the same price most of them sold for in the previous 6 months, talk about bad timing on their part.
My view doesn't mean crap, but just based on what I've seen in the last couple of years, the housing market is dead.
Click to expand...


This is here also, and Charlotte has been boomtown ranked in top 20 fastest growing cities for more than 20 years. No more having 30 offers and getting 50k over asking, people are lucky to sell at all despite their being a shortage of houses rather than a glut . It doesnt matter if theres little supply when folks are either scared to death or cannot afford. I think the folks who bought in the last 2 years paid 10% to 20% more than the actual market value for that home...the only way they keep from eating a sizable loss is to sell immediately (be lucky to) or keep it for a decade and let the market catch up to actual value when rates are low again. No guarantee of course that interest rates are ever down around zero from the Fed again...it was the 1st time in my 45 years of life. Real estate IMO is not in as bad of shape as 08 like Murphy said due to the supply of houses not being nearly as much...but its still due a serious correction. Starter homes nearly doubled in value in my area guys. A 1500 sq ft tract house that was $150k in 2010 is $275 to $300k and up now. Thats $200 a square foot and up...to be 15 feet away from your neighbors house to house in a cookie cutter type hood not in a very desirable school zone/commute or crime area. To be in a "cool" and desirable area, its like the townhouses i just built that start at $450k for 1500sf and go into the $600ks for maybe 1800 to 2000sf... for the South, these houses are waaaaay overpriced. With normal interest rates, a very small % of jobs down here pay wages that pay a mortgage on a half million dollar house. Those are more like New England prices...Boston etc. I would hate to see what house prices are up there in any hood that doesnt see gunfire. Gotta be outrageous.

Anyway, didnt mean to write a novel. Unfortunately i think real estate will be very stagnant until interest rates or home prices come down from current by 10 to 20%....maybe both need to come down. Hope not.
 
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#13,319
#13,319
VolStrom said:
I have an informal indicator that I go by and that is houses for sale in my neighborhood and how fast they sell and for how much. Until the last couple of months, they would sell within 10 days and for as much as $50k over asking. Now I only see one house for sale, and it's been on the market for 6 weeks, and they've already lowered the price by $10k. They were asking the same price most of them sold for in the previous 6 months, talk about bad timing on their part.
My view doesn't mean crap, but just based on what I've seen in the last couple of years, the housing market is dead.
Click to expand...

I do the same. I'm seeing houses in areas around me sit on the market for 5-6 weeks and drop the asking price where their comps were selling at or above asking price in under a week just a few months ago. I don't think real estate is dead but really slowing down.
 
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#13,320
#13,320
Housing will go through a market correction, as the feds announced yesterday. I can tell you the market. What's happening rn is people still have money and are willing to deal with moderate rate hikes, but as a seller you don't want to sit on property very long for a lot of reasons. Basically, buyers are still out there, but everyone is on edge and looking for a deal. As a seller you don't have much hand to haggle, so the seller can talk you way down. You basically get talked down from your asking price rn. This is all a result of 0% interest free money for years.
 
#13,321
#13,321


Thought this was interesting...are Google, facebook, tesla, apple on here? I think tesla doesnt belong....is it microsoft that makes up the 4th? I know there are a couple different 4 letter acronyms for the tech big stocks? I am down about 9%ytd...was 10. Something % in april when i got out.
 
#13,323
#13,323
marcusluvsvols said:


Thought this was interesting...are Google, facebook, tesla, apple on here? I think tesla doesnt belong....is it microsoft that makes up the 4th? I know there are a couple different 4 letter acronyms for the tech big stocks? I am down about 9%ytd...was 10. Something % in april when i got out.
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Yes. AAPL is #1 at almost 14%. MSFT is #2 at over 10%. Combining two classes of Alphabet is #3 (6.82%). AMZN is #4 (6.2%).TSLA is #5 (5.27%). AAPL and MSFT make up almost a quarter of the NASDAQ 100/QQQs. Meta is a distant 6th.

https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html
 
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#13,324
#13,324
Dang. All the market indices are in a limbo dance today. I’m wondering where it ends. You think the idiot analysts are finally getting the message that Jay Powell isn’t going to appease them? Read that even Goldman Sachs capitulated and lowered their year end S&P forecast from 4300 to 3600. And they’re still chasing the last CPI and interest rate data.
 
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