stock market was up today...

#13,926
#13,926
Go aeiou said:
I don't see all the mortgage loan problems. Did the borrowers get adjustable rate mortagages at a time when rates were very low? That just does not make sense. I guess some old loans could suddenly be much higher, but I'd think the borrower of those loans have significant equity.
Also people that run up balances on their credit cards, and suddenly are overextended.

Did he say what the problem is for these people?
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Yes some did from what he told me. You have to remember when it comes to money people are largely ignorant. Also there has been moratoriums from what I understand that are expiring so it’s also pent up demand.

ETA: or the moratoriums expired prior and they were just working thru the system and now about to take possession. It was a family get together we didn’t obsess much.
 
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#13,928
#13,928
Futures tonight are up a little, shrugging off today's event. Damage was already done. Sure hope we don't experience our own Japan-like lost decade.
 
#13,930
#13,930
Vol737 said:
Hmmm....we will see about that. Hope JP is correct.
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I Consider an outlier to be 1- 20banks with differing issues. People don’t understand how badly manage most banks are.

Also, most people don’t understand that any bank in the US is insolvent if enough of their depositors take funds out. People just don’t understand that it is the system that protects everything, not the government (not knowing is part of the system).
 
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#13,938
#13,938
Hey guys.

Have read a couple articles about this stock...Verizon..that to a layman like me seem quite convincing despite the looming market correction. I have to this point never picked an individual stock before for my 401k...but a 7.5% dividend and cheap price per share right now have me thinking about taking a flyer on this one.

Please shoot holes in this idea...or endorse it if yall agree with the article? Thanks for your help , i still have my entire 401k in a guaranteed return money market thing getting like 2.9% interest...which is getting murdered by inflation eroding my purchasing power. I did manage to avoid a year of losses in the market...but i missed out of course on apple, tesla etc that have made some amazing gains. I hate not knowing things...anything in which i have interest or a stake in especially. All responses greatly appreciated.

Verizon's 7.5% Yield Is A Once-In-A-Lifetime Opportunity (NYSE:VZ) | Seeking Alpha

Edit : fwiw...anecdotally Verizon has always had the best cell service in our (charlotte) area. No dropped calls or dead spots even when coming over the mountain to Neyland etc. They are expensive and everyone seems to know this, but have always been regarded by folks i know as the best/fastest service and network. My work pays for my phone but my wife/kids have always been with verizon. In this area anyway they are kinda the "premium" phone company. Not sure if that should matter though...
 
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#13,939
#13,939
marcusluvsvols said:
Hey guys.

Have read a couple articles about this stock...Verizon..that to a layman like me seem quite convincing despite the looming market correction. I have to this point never picked an individual stock before for my 401k...but a 7.5% dividend and cheap price per share right now have me thinking about taking a flyer on this one.

Please shoot holes in this idea...or endorse it if yall agree with the article? Thanks for your help , i still have my entire 401k in a guaranteed return money market thing getting like 2.9% interest...which is getting murdered by inflation eroding my purchasing power. I did manage to avoid a year of losses in the market...but i missed out of course on apple, tesla etc that have made some amazing gains. I hate not knowing things...anything in which i have interest or a stake in especially. All responses greatly appreciated.

Verizon's 7.5% Yield Is A Once-In-A-Lifetime Opportunity (NYSE:VZ) | Seeking Alpha
Click to expand...

Lots of institutional ownership but they’ve had a difficult time growing subscribers. That can ebb and flow, though, among all the telecoms. VZ, like AT&T, has been heavily investing in 5G ($$) which is very capital intensive. I’ve taken a bite down at these levels and watching. VZ isn’t going anywhere and may recover long term. Problem is if companies can’t increase their revenue, then the dividend could be in jeopardy of being cut.

From what I’ve read a while back, they don’t seem to be at that point, but definitely worth keeping your eyes and ears open to any news suggesting the divvy might get cut. T cut theirs a couple of years ago and their share price continued to sink, which in turn actually made the dividend yield higher. Now it’s stabilized a bit, but they’ve had to shed a lot of dead weight assets as they got away from their core business. I’ve seen more publications making recommendations that it may be time to get back into telecoms as they are taking measures to right the ship.

Look around at other “high yield” investments. Other options with nice yields right now are some stable income/bond funds with rates having increased. I’ve jumped into regional banks that have been beaten down by the SVB debacle, but have solid balance sheets and lots of insider buying. Many of those have presented some good yields as well at a lower price than VZ, although the road back may take some time, which I’m fine with. Fifth Third and Truist are two of the ones I’m in. There are a lot of good CFPs out there that have reasonable and various fee structures that can guide you too. Depending on how much you’re wanting to invest, I might diversify across a couple of different spaces that have some decent yields. If it’s an ultra high yield, caveat emptor.
 
#13,940
#13,940
marcusluvsvols said:
Hey guys.

Have read a couple articles about this stock...Verizon..that to a layman like me seem quite convincing despite the looming market correction. I have to this point never picked an individual stock before for my 401k...but a 7.5% dividend and cheap price per share right now have me thinking about taking a flyer on this one.

Please shoot holes in this idea...or endorse it if yall agree with the article? Thanks for your help , i still have my entire 401k in a guaranteed return money market thing getting like 2.9% interest...which is getting murdered by inflation eroding my purchasing power. I did manage to avoid a year of losses in the market...but i missed out of course on apple, tesla etc that have made some amazing gains. I hate not knowing things...anything in which i have interest or a stake in especially. All responses greatly appreciated.

Verizon's 7.5% Yield Is A Once-In-A-Lifetime Opportunity (NYSE:VZ) | Seeking Alpha

Edit : fwiw...anecdotally Verizon has always had the best cell service in our (charlotte) area. No dropped calls or dead spots even when coming over the mountain to Neyland etc. They are expensive and everyone seems to know this, but have always been regarded by folks i know as the best/fastest service and network. My work pays for my phone but my wife/kids have always been with verizon. In this area anyway they are kinda the "premium" phone company. Not sure if that should matter though...
Click to expand...

The valuations are good. High dividend with a 50% payout ratio. The p/e multiple is under 7x (and therefore VZ is obviously profitable). The debt isn’t unreasonable.

It’s a DJIA component. Going into the second half of 2023 the Dogs of the Dow buyers and publicity might prevent shares from falling from the current low levels.

The government’s Inflation Reduction Act (name doesn’t really reflect what it actually does) sets aside a lot of money for building out communication infrastructure for many years. BUT does that enhance Verizon’s position in the communications universe or create a more difficult environment? The IRA might could stimulate competition. Frontier Communications (FYBR) will probably be a bigger beneficiary of the IRA, but they do not pay a dividend. T-Mobile (TMUS) seems to always be the favorite of analysts in the industry.

Concerning to me is that with COVID and the work from home trend, VZ hasn’t done better as an investment. And while equities of so many other sectors/industries are doing very well right now, Verizon is at its 52-week low. Puzzling.

Institutional ownership isn’t excessive, so all those trillions on the sidelines could quickly roll into a name like VZ.

As with any investment, it is risky to allocate more than 10% of your investment capital to any single stock. 5% makes more sense - but there’s always that risk/reward consideration. Concentrating a higher allocation of wealth into riskier assets can bring big rewards. And often pain.
 
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#13,942
#13,942
I know that the store is run by a different company, but the kids working there were horrible the two or three times I’ve visited. They seemed to gravitate to the customers that pull up in the $60k pickup trucks (with the $60k loan) and the slick clothes and shiny bling. But if they have an element of commissions or incentive pay in their compensation then that’s how it works. It’s on management to assume the guy in the 20 year old car and worn out jeans isn’t a potential, stable long term customer.
 
#13,943
#13,943
T, VZ, and FYBR have a potentially huge problem to overcome with this week’s report of lead toxicity in their abandoned buried cables. Of course it’s nothing that wasn’t already known about, but now that it’s in the news it will likely be a drag on stock prices. Especially with large money managers being pressured to address ESG concerns. Also politicians will pile on to appease the anti-capitalist voters. It’s kind of early on to assess the extent of the problem.
 
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#13,944
#13,944
marcusluvsvols said:
Hey guys.

Have read a couple articles about this stock...Verizon..that to a layman like me seem quite convincing despite the looming market correction. I have to this point never picked an individual stock before for my 401k...but a 7.5% dividend and cheap price per share right now have me thinking about taking a flyer on this one.

Please shoot holes in this idea...or endorse it if yall agree with the article? Thanks for your help , i still have my entire 401k in a guaranteed return money market thing getting like 2.9% interest...which is getting murdered by inflation eroding my purchasing power. I did manage to avoid a year of losses in the market...but i missed out of course on apple, tesla etc that have made some amazing gains. I hate not knowing things...anything in which i have interest or a stake in especially. All responses greatly appreciated.

Verizon's 7.5% Yield Is A Once-In-A-Lifetime Opportunity (NYSE:VZ) | Seeking Alpha

Edit : fwiw...anecdotally Verizon has always had the best cell service in our (charlotte) area. No dropped calls or dead spots even when coming over the mountain to Neyland etc. They are expensive and everyone seems to know this, but have always been regarded by folks i know as the best/fastest service and network. My work pays for my phone but my wife/kids have always been with verizon. In this area anyway they are kinda the "premium" phone company. Not sure if that should matter though...
Click to expand...

Before jumping into an individual stock, I suggest trying a more aggressive mutual fund. That provides more of the ups and downs to see what your stomach can tolerate.

If you wish to say, which brokage firm do you use?
 
#13,945
#13,945
Jax_Vol said:
Before jumping into an individual stock, I suggest trying a more aggressive mutual fund. That provides more of the ups and downs to see what your stomach can tolerate.

If you wish to say, which brokage firm do you use?
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Principal. I was in a targeted date fund? Or something like that...based on what year i would theoretically be able to retire. I think Thunder actually looked up my exact fund after i posted a screenshot in this thread a long time ago. Anyway...last year by about April 1 it had lost 10% of its entire value ytd...lost about $10k in 4 months. I couldn't stomach losing $2500 a month or -2.5% and jumped out of the market altogether into this moneymarket thing...locking in a $10k loss, but IIRC i ducked another 8-10k in losses the rest of the year and instead earned a very modest return while continuing to contribute 3% of my check every week plus what my boss gives me annually. I have terrible luck in general and never gamble etc because of it.

May have been a dumb move by me to get out of the market but honestly i would never get lucky by picking a stock that took off....and the targeted fund i was in took a beating. Our company's 401k program used to be with someone else before Principal...maybe Fidelity? I did the same targeted date fund thing for roughly 2040 and it performed poorly as well. I am in a bad place mentally about this situation...i cannot afford to take bad losses because i am 46yo and likely wont live another 2o years with my family medical history etc....yet this monster inflation due to these dipsheit politicians and crooked policies is reducing the buying power of my meager lifes savings to the point that if something doesnt change my 2 kids splitting $100 or maybe $150k will barely be able to make a good down payment on a house etc rather than actually giving them enough $ to make a real impact in their lives and stability. I have lost all my grandparents and only have my Mom left and will never inherit any $ which is fine. I have worked my azz off my entire life though and have put it all into my kids and their education. I want to be able to leave them a good chunk of $ that I never received in hopes of building some generational wealth and security for them. I have no experience investing though , and it really stresses me out.
 
#13,946
#13,946
marcusluvsvols said:
Principal. I was in a targeted date fund? Or something like that...based on what year i would theoretically be able to retire. I think Thunder actually looked up my exact fund after i posted a screenshot in this thread a long time ago. Anyway...last year by about April 1 it had lost 10% of its entire value ytd...lost about $10k in 4 months. I couldn't stomach losing $2500 a month or -2.5% and jumped out of the market altogether into this moneymarket thing...locking in a $10k loss, but IIRC i ducked another 8-10k in losses the rest of the year and instead earned a very modest return while continuing to contribute 3% of my check every week plus what my boss gives me annually. I have terrible luck in general and never gamble etc because of it.

May have been a dumb move by me to get out of the market but honestly i would never get lucky by picking a stock that took off....and the targeted fund i was in took a beating. Our company's 401k program used to be with someone else before Principal...maybe Fidelity? I did the same targeted date fund thing for roughly 2040 and it performed poorly as well. I am in a bad place mentally about this situation...i cannot afford to take bad losses because i am 46yo and likely wont live another 2o years with my family medical history etc....yet this monster inflation due to these dipsheit politicians and crooked policies is reducing the buying power of my meager lifes savings to the point that if something doesnt change my 2 kids splitting $100 or maybe $150k will barely be able to make a good down payment on a house etc rather than actually giving them enough $ to make a real impact in their lives and stability. I have lost all my grandparents and only have my Mom left and will never inherit any $ which is fine. I have worked my azz off my entire life though and have put it all into my kids and their education. I want to be able to leave them a good chunk of $ that I never received in hopes of building some generational wealth and security for them. I have no experience investing though , and it really stresses me out.
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I wouldn’t suggest buying any individual stock if it is really stressful for you when they lose value. That’s the nature of owning equities. Always has been. Always will be. The 2040 target fund is going to ebb and flow as well. Just probably not as rapidly or extreme as individual stocks.

If you can adjust and tolerate some risk (as you well know there is also risk when staying in cash as your buying power erodes), then ETFs and/or mutual funds are better suited for your risk tolerance. And I’d go with the big funds. QQQ. SPY. DIA. VTI. All have billions invested and are very efficient with their fees.

20 years is still a good amount of time. It isn’t at all unreasonable to get 3, 4, or even 5 doubles in that time frame. But you won’t if you panic sell at every big pull back in markets. $100k -> $200k (1 double) -> $400k (2 doubles) -> $800k (3 doubles) -> $1.6 million (4 doubles).

No telling what tax laws will be like in 20 years, but the current IRS code, with stepped up cost basis, is an excellent tax treatment with what your goals are. Basically the increase in value of assets will never be taxed as capital gains when they pass to your beneficiaries. Variable annuities are an exception. Insurance sales agents push them as tax advantaged investment contracts, but all they do is defer the taxes. Heirs have to pay taxes on the gains when they withdraw those funds.
 
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#13,947
#13,947
marcusluvsvols said:
Principal. I was in a targeted date fund? Or something like that...based on what year i would theoretically be able to retire. I think Thunder actually looked up my exact fund after i posted a screenshot in this thread a long time ago. Anyway...last year by about April 1 it had lost 10% of its entire value ytd...lost about $10k in 4 months. I couldn't stomach losing $2500 a month or -2.5% and jumped out of the market altogether into this moneymarket thing...locking in a $10k loss, but IIRC i ducked another 8-10k in losses the rest of the year and instead earned a very modest return while continuing to contribute 3% of my check every week plus what my boss gives me annually. I have terrible luck in general and never gamble etc because of it.

May have been a dumb move by me to get out of the market but honestly i would never get lucky by picking a stock that took off....and the targeted fund i was in took a beating. Our company's 401k program used to be with someone else before Principal...maybe Fidelity? I did the same targeted date fund thing for roughly 2040 and it performed poorly as well. I am in a bad place mentally about this situation...i cannot afford to take bad losses because i am 46yo and likely wont live another 2o years with my family medical history etc....yet this monster inflation due to these dipsheit politicians and crooked policies is reducing the buying power of my meager lifes savings to the point that if something doesnt change my 2 kids splitting $100 or maybe $150k will barely be able to make a good down payment on a house etc rather than actually giving them enough $ to make a real impact in their lives and stability. I have lost all my grandparents and only have my Mom left and will never inherit any $ which is fine. I have worked my azz off my entire life though and have put it all into my kids and their education. I want to be able to leave them a good chunk of $ that I never received in hopes of building some generational wealth and security for them. I have no experience investing though , and it really stresses me out.
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Suggest putting at least 50% in PLSAX. If you're life expectancy is still 20+ year, the market is going to go up.

The remainder you mix depending on your risk tolerance.

Large Cap Growth probably for 20-25%

Midcap for 10-15%

Principal Cap App probably 10%

All you really need are 4-5 funds. Then, just forget about them as best possible. Check them 3 times a year, Easter, Labor Day, Christmas.
 
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#13,948
#13,948
Still sounds like everything is getting ready to tank bigly. The banks are starting to panic and are paying repo guys extra money in rush to get vehicles before the bottom falls out. Lots of repo guys are saying it’s about to get crazy. They can’t keep up with the requests anymore.
 
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#13,949
#13,949
davethevol said:
Still sounds like everything is getting ready to tank bigly. The banks are starting to panic and are paying repo guys extra money in rush to get vehicles before the bottom falls out. Lots of repo guys are saying it’s about to get crazy. They can’t keep up with the requests anymore.
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When they talk like that, time to buy.

When they say everything is great, time to sell.
 
#13,950
#13,950
davethevol said:
Still sounds like everything is getting ready to tank bigly. The banks are starting to panic and are paying repo guys extra money in rush to get vehicles before the bottom falls out. Lots of repo guys are saying it’s about to get crazy. They can’t keep up with the requests anymore.
Click to expand...

Banks are certainly unique. The huge banks get the too big to fail treatment. Apparently all deposits are now being guaranteed by the federal government. The regional and small banks are essential to support the smaller end of commerce - they are needed for family businesses to be going concerns. Politicians are not about to let American small businesses disappear. The inverted and near inverted yield curves make bank business models tricky. They need higher interest rates on long term loans. The government needs to keep interest rates from going up too much as they’re a $30+ trillion net debtor. Rates can’t approach zero again to keep inflation reasonable.

Banks will be fine as investment and GDP grow. That should happen as the trend to source manufacturing shifts to on shoring and near shoring. Mexico is already starting to benefit as the shift away from China progresses.

Demographics are less of a problem in the US than it is all over the world. AI will help even more as long as the US is a leader in that industry.

There should be a lot of opportunities for workers willing to get dirty and turn a wrench. Fix plumbing and HVAC. Climb up on a roof to fix leaks and adjust gutters. Sorry but the gender studies and diversity workers need to be at minimum wage or even go extinct if the government wouldn’t create those jobs.
 
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