stock market was up today...

#14,626
#14,626
Septic said:
How did that 2018 China trade war omelet taste?

www.brookings.edu

More pain than gain: How the US-China trade war hurt America

The ultimate results of the phase one trade deal between China and the United States — and the trade war that preceded it — have significantly hurt the American economy without solving the underlying economic concerns that the trade war was meant to resolve, write Ryan Hass and Abraham Denmark.
www.brookings.edu www.brookings.edu

Apologies if I'm not ready to let donny back into the kitchen.
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Bill and Melinda Gates foundation is the largest contributor to Brookings.edu.

Try again.
 
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#14,628
#14,628
Septic said:
How are you defining energy independence? Until we can refine to meet demand, we will never have energy independence.

Already have a crude surplus. Drilling more and piping into container ships just to export more does nothing to convince big oil execs to build billion-dollar refineries.
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Net exportation with all grades combined.

The hostile regulations embraced by the left is what’s preventing new refineries from being built by Big Oil.

We have a surplus of light sweet. Not a surplus of thick, sour sulfur loaded grades that our refineries are set up for. Not playing pussyfoot with the socialists pumping out the nasty **** is creating the imbalance. Refitting the existing refinery capacity is what’s needed. Which POTUS would expedite that process wherever possible and which ones would interfere with the commerce?
 
#14,630
#14,630
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#14,632
#14,632
MurphyVol said:
That was lip service for the hippies. We're the world's largest oil producer, we now double the output of the Saudis. The only thing holding us back from producing even more is the price is too low and we have a pretty big shortage of oil workers.
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Wind and Solar fit into the mix. But transmission isn’t there to put much of a dent outside of the demand in the southwest. Wind is abundant in west Texas. But the people aren’t moving there.

It’s either a major miscalculation or misguided virtue signaling that came from the liberal-left-Dems. Or both. The CCP, as with all things, cheat with the photovoltaic industry.
 
#14,633
#14,633
Septic said:
How did that 2018 China trade war omelet taste?

www.brookings.edu

More pain than gain: How the US-China trade war hurt America

The ultimate results of the phase one trade deal between China and the United States — and the trade war that preceded it — have significantly hurt the American economy without solving the underlying economic concerns that the trade war was meant to resolve, write Ryan Hass and Abraham Denmark.
www.brookings.edu www.brookings.edu

Apologies if I'm not ready to let donny back into the kitchen.
Click to expand...

I didn’t notice much difference even when Biden increased Trumps tariffs.
 
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#14,634
#14,634
volfanhill said:
It's a good excuse. How, as an energy executive, do you feel comfortable investing billions just to risk a change in administrations who will kill it in 4-8 years?
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As an oil executive I wouldn't even need to entertain it, the excuse isn't even necessary. There's plenty of money to be made exporting, they've gone on record stating as much.

The 'drill baby drill' and the promise of "energy independence" are nothing more than buzzwords by politicians to dupe us into believing they g.a.s. about gas prices.
 
#14,635
#14,635
Septic said:
Maybe it was.

But now it's just a convenient excuse not to spend shareholder dividends on decade long projects.
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Big Oil isn’t going to slash dividends for anything if they can avoid it. They aren’t going to inflate them either. That’s not how their capital structure is designed. Good dividend yields attract a consistent flow of investment. Steady, predictable dividend growth is their bread and butter. Keeping them and not depleting retained earnings fuels the capital gains and market appreciation.
 
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#14,636
#14,636
Septic said:
As an oil executive I wouldn't even need to entertain it, the excuse isn't even necessary. There's plenty of money to be made exporting, they've gone on record stating as much.

The 'drill baby drill' and the promise of "energy independence" are nothing more than buzzwords by politicians to dupe us into believing they g.a.s. about gas prices.
Click to expand...

The majors have considerably higher margins in the refining and distillation businesses. Exploration, pumping, and transporting are necessary components and more ancillary and an input for BO.
 
#14,637
#14,637
hog88 said:
I didn’t notice much difference even when Biden increased Trumps tariffs.
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That's because the tariffs were applied to items that were largely already unavailable, like Chinese electric vehicles.

Study after study, including one from the federal government’s bipartisan US International Trade Commission, have found that Americans have borne almost the entire cost of Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products.

Once an importer pays for the tariff, it usually passes along some or all of the cost to the consumer.

But when it comes to the new tariff hike – from 27.5% to 100% – on electric vehicles, American consumers may not see a sudden jump in prices. That’s because the US already imports a relatively small amount of electric vehicles from China.

Since 2018, Chinese electric vehicle imports have increased from $7.2 million to $388.8 million – but were only 2% of all US electric vehicle imports, according to the US International Trade Commission.
Click to expand...
 
#14,638
#14,638
I've made a killing on US stocks these last 15 years (most have). Not gonna sell those positions because I'm a buy and hold kinda guy, but it's all international stocks for new purchases moving forward. The writing is on the wall.

Never understood all the calls to diversify holdings into international but now I feel like a schmuck for not listening. Digital tech will likely be ok longterm, but a lot of American companies are gonna crater.
 
#14,639
#14,639
Ashevolle said:
I've made a killing on US stocks these last 15 years (most have). Not gonna sell those positions because I'm a buy and hold kinda guy, but it's all international stocks for new purchases moving forward. The writing is on the wall.

Never understood all the calls to diversify holdings into international but now I feel like a schmuck for not listening. Digital tech will likely be ok longterm, but a lot of American companies are gonna crater.
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The time to be establishing international positions was the prior 12-18 months.

US Stocks are on sale, now. Now would be the time to buy if you believe (as you say) they are going to recover (which they are).
 
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#14,640
#14,640
85SugarVol said:
The time to be establishing international positions was the prior 12-18 months.

US Stocks are on sale, now. Now would be the time to buy if you believe (as you say) they are going to recover (which they are).
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I think there’s more downside coming until the economy and markets digest all of this and start to get some clarity. Still seems the knife hasn’t hit the floor yet and I’m fine with that as I accumulate more cash. I am looking forward to buying my favorites at a deep discount. I got out China a long time ago and really don’t hold any international positions. There’s just been nothing like US stocks that has powered my returns over the years. Looking forward to the next leg(s) up when all the dust settles.
 
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#14,641
#14,641
Vol737 said:
I think there’s more downside coming until the economy and markets digest all of this and start to get some clarity. Still seems the knife hasn’t hit the floor yet and I’m fine with that as I accumulate more cash. I am looking forward to buying my favorites at a deep discount. I got out China a long time ago and really don’t hold any international positions. There’s just been nothing like US stocks that has powered my returns over the years. Looking forward to the next leg(s) up when all the dust settles.
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20 years ago Internationals were where the returns were - it’s all cyclical.

Internationals have been laggards for a long time, and they certainly could be on the upswing.

I’ve maintained about 7-8% exposure to International over the last 10-15 years - I’d love to see them pop.
 
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#14,643
#14,643
BigOrangeMojo said:
If losses, especially the S&P and NASDAQ, accelerate in the 2PM CST hour, that will be my trigger to start buying...
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Not worried that the deferred April tariffs will re-spook the market into a deeper sell off?

I'm looking for stocks to get moved from the 20% off bin to the 30% off bin.
 
#14,645
#14,645
LMT:

Off 25%
21.5x p/e
17.6x forward

Making world class fighter jets and has contracts to help lift payloads into outer space. $112B market cap. About 2/3rds or 3/4ths of a ride sharing company.

Well covered 2.75% yield while you wait for the DOGE scrutiny to fall out of the news cycle.
 
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#14,647
#14,647
BigOrangeMojo said:
I wont go all in. I just want to see some type of capitulation...
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I'm dropping off a check tomorrow for a little $ cost averaging myself. I won't be happy I did this in a month, but in a year I'll wish I'd done more. I think we'll see a nice bounce when the tariff stupidity subsides, and the trump corporate tax party happens later in April.
 
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