Modest success sets the bar too low for me, and is too ambiguous. We at least need to get to some kind of bowl game, all these coaches, athletic directors etc. make the big bucks so regardless of the circumstances if you cannot have a 50% win record (especially with four much lesser opponents on the schedule) and a bowl game you are a failure. Plain and simple.
A 50% win record... is setting the bar too low for the talent on this roster. IMO, 7-9 wins should be Jones' range. He's gotten buy in. He's done nothing but praise the attitude and work ethic of the team. He inherits probably the best OL in the SEC if not the country from tackle to tackle. His front 7 on D has talent and experience.
I have stated it before but IMO a 6 win season will be a strong indication that Jones cannot get it done in K'ville. Moreover, I think it will make it very difficult for him to get a chance even if he can. This is a talented and senior laden team. Half of the starters will be Srs. About 9 or 10 are multi-year starters. Next year he loses those experienced and talented starters. He loses a total of 16 SRs from his two deep plus maybe 2 JRs. Those players will be replaced primarily by SOs or '14 signees.
If this is a six win team then next year's team is a 4 or 5 win team at best. If he has one season at .500 followed by a losing season then '15 will be a make or break year.