VFL-82-JP
Bleedin' Orange...
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In spite of the fact that Iowa is 10-3 and the Vols are only 8-4, the two teams seem to balance fairly well.
1. Iowa's best wins were against three 7-5 teams: Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Northwestern. The Vols best wins were against two 7-5 teams: Texas A&M and Kentucky.
2. Iowa's worst loss was against a 5-7 team: Minnesota. Tennessee's worst loss was against a 5-7 team: Florida.
3. Iowa lost to both Top 10 teams it played: Penn State and Michigan. Tennessee lost to all three Top 10 teams we played: Bama, UGa, and Mizzou.
4. The combined record of all the teams Iowa beat this year was 55-65 (.458). The record of all the teams the Vols beat was 44-42 (.512).
5. One significant difference: the average score of Iowa's 2023 games was 17-13 in Iowa's favor. Their MO was to win close games, with not much offense but a smothering defense. Only one opponent scored more than 30 points on them. By contrast, the average score of Vols matches was 32-22, in our favor. While not the fire-hot offense of 2022, our lads still scored 30+ points seven different times. So, something has to give here.
6. Tellingly, the point margin in Iowa's favor this year was, on average, just 4 points. The delta in the Vols' favor averaged out at 10 points. Advantage to the Vols.
Given all this, I wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas put the spread at about 3 or 4 points. In our favor. Yes, in spite of the fact that Iowa is the 10-win team that went to its conference championship match, I think the Vols are going to be favored to win.
Go Vols!
1. Iowa's best wins were against three 7-5 teams: Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Northwestern. The Vols best wins were against two 7-5 teams: Texas A&M and Kentucky.
2. Iowa's worst loss was against a 5-7 team: Minnesota. Tennessee's worst loss was against a 5-7 team: Florida.
3. Iowa lost to both Top 10 teams it played: Penn State and Michigan. Tennessee lost to all three Top 10 teams we played: Bama, UGa, and Mizzou.
4. The combined record of all the teams Iowa beat this year was 55-65 (.458). The record of all the teams the Vols beat was 44-42 (.512).
5. One significant difference: the average score of Iowa's 2023 games was 17-13 in Iowa's favor. Their MO was to win close games, with not much offense but a smothering defense. Only one opponent scored more than 30 points on them. By contrast, the average score of Vols matches was 32-22, in our favor. While not the fire-hot offense of 2022, our lads still scored 30+ points seven different times. So, something has to give here.
6. Tellingly, the point margin in Iowa's favor this year was, on average, just 4 points. The delta in the Vols' favor averaged out at 10 points. Advantage to the Vols.
Given all this, I wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas put the spread at about 3 or 4 points. In our favor. Yes, in spite of the fact that Iowa is the 10-win team that went to its conference championship match, I think the Vols are going to be favored to win.
Go Vols!
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