Work left to do: Mississippi State, Tennessee
It's not often you'll see a team move to lock status after a loss to Ole Miss, but Alabama has officially accomplished that very feat this week. Why? Because, like Cincy and UVa above, while Bama doesn't exactly have the most overwhelming profile in the world -- 20-10 overall, 9-7 in the SEC, 3-5 vs. the top 50, etc. -- it does have three nonconference wins over current tournament teams (Wichita State, Purdue and VCU), a top-35 RPI, a top-20 SOS, and a top-50 nonconference slate. Ask yourself: If Alabama loses to South Carolina in the first round of the SEC tournament Thursday, would it fall below the current crop of bubble teams on the S-Curve? The answer is no. The Crimson Tide are in.
Mississippi State [21-10 (8-8), RPI: 60, SOS: 77] Ending your season with wins at South Carolina and at home vs. Arkansas isn't exactly the greatest feat in the world, but those wins were exactly what Mississippi State needed. The Bulldogs had previously lost their last five and appeared to be coming apart at the seams. Losses in either or both games last week may have done them in. Instead, they held on to get two wins. That's the good news. The bad news is that this profile took a major knock in that five-game losing streak; its RPI and SOS numbers are all marginal at best, and it finished 8-8 in the SEC, 6-7 away from Starkville, 3-4 against the RPI top 50 and 8-8 against the top 100. A first-round loss to Georgia on Thursday could spell trouble, but for now, Rick Stansbury's frustrating bunch appear to have righted their ship.
Tennessee [18-13 (10-6), RPI: 75, SOS: 40] It is now time to take the Vols' at-large chances seriously. Quite frankly, though the NCAA eliminated the official "last X games" criteria two years ago, it won't be able to look at UT's 8-1 record in its last nine games -- with the only loss coming at Alabama -- and not be impressed. Clearly, this is a different group with mid-season enrollee Jarnell Stokes in the mix, one that owns a season sweep of the long-since-locked Florida Gators. The RPI has crept down into reasonable territory (it's still high, but not as high as it used to be), and while a 3-10 road/neutral record is prohibitive, four top-50 wins is more than many bubble teams can boast. It will be interesting to see how the committee handles this team, which has in the course of two months morphed from an obvious rebuilding effort to the No. 2 seed in the SEC tournament. At least one win in New Orleans is likely a must (especially because it will come against the winner of Ole Miss-Auburn), and a strong showing in the semifinals might help too. A lot could happen around the bubble line this week of course, but it looks like two wins would be enough. Who woulda thunk it?
College Basketball Bubble Watch - Champ Week means there's a whole lot of sweating going on along the bubble line - NCAA Men's Basketball - ESPN