Tennessee Volunteers
RPMs: 80 percent
The Volunteers lose Cameron Tatum to graduation, but just about everyone else will be back next year for coach Cuonzo Martin. Through some combination of luck, merit and weird tiebreakers, the Vols were actually the No. 2 seed in the SEC tournament, and a 2-seed that returns four starters should be an easy pick to make the NCAA tournament, right?
Pretty much, right. For one thing, the Vols should benefit from the continued development of 6-8 sophomore-to-be Jarnell Stokes, who played just 17 games after becoming eligible midseason as a freshman. Stokes shot just 57 percent at the free throw line and, what was worse for UT fans, drew a lot of fouls. But in just about every other way, Stokes displayed a good deal of promise as a freshman. He made 55 percent of his 2s (meaning he came very close to shooting better from the field than he did at the line), and he was a capable rebounder at both ends of the floor.
Stokes will team with Jeronne Maymon to give Martin what projects to be an outstanding frontcourt. Maymon started his college career at Marquette before transferring to Knoxville, and in his first season as a Volunteer, he quickly displayed a remarkable ability to draw fouls. (Though, like Stokes, he wasn't always able to turn those fouls into points: Maymon shot 66 percent at the line.) But the 6-7 Maymon is a reliable scorer in the paint, and in particular, I expect that he and Stokes will be able to crash the offensive glass, if Martin will let them.
In the backcourt, leading scorer Trae Golden suffers from the oldest perceptual affliction in basketball. It is said the 6-1 combo guard is not a "true" point guard, whatever that is. I'll grant that he can commit an occasional turnover. In particular, Golden had a late February to forget -- he committed six turnovers in a game on three separate occasions. But if we define a point guard as someone who records assists and makes baskets, then I submit to you that Golden is, all in all, a pretty fair point guard. His contribution to the offense has been underrated simply because some of his best work is done in the dullest way possible. Golden shoots 83 percent at the line and draws about five fouls per 40 minutes.
The only thing holding this team back is its own turnovers. The defense is already outstanding in Knoxville, but the Volunteers gave the ball away on 23 percent of their SEC possessions last season. If Golden and his teammates can take better care of the ball next season -- and chances are very good that they will, if for no other reason than the law of averages -- you'll be hearing an awful lot about how "Martin's done a great job with this team to get them back to the NCAA tournament." Wait and see.
