The 2014 Recruiting Class: A first look at the impact.

#1
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daj2576

@aVolForLife
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#1
This won't be as long as my usual posts. I am working on more graphics and a more in-depth discussion to be published later.

So, as I have often said: recruiting correlates strongly with wins. How have the 2014 recruiting classes shaken up the landscape of the SEC? Not much really.

Here is a list of the four year recruiting averages of all SEC teams. The column on the far right shows the change in the numerical average, not a change in position rankings. Remember, about 70% or more, the team with the higher recruiting average will win a game over a team with a lower average. That number is about 90% in championship games.

2014SEC.jpg

Here is something that will blow your mind (well, it did mine anyway). This is UT's 2014 schedule ranked by opponent's average recruiting classes. As a simple explanation of how to read this; the teams below UT should be a win, the teams above should be a loss. This schedule, by these numbers, is actually slightly easier than last year (1 game difference in predicted wins vs. losses).

2014UT.jpg

Here is a graphic illustrating how this recruiting class (projected into a 2 deep with the remaining players) improves the overall roster immensely.

projected starter strength.jpg

More discussion to follow on my blog. I'll keep you posted.

If you want to see how these numbers worked last year, insofar as singular games and seasonal trends, click here:

https://docs.google.com/a/mybloodis...yfdEpwUHpyWXUzY3JWRFU1Skc1UTRiZ2c&output=html
 
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#2
#2
By the way, I have other great news. After ten years of marriage, my wife is finally pregnant! I am going to be a father, and I have never been so scared and happy all at once. We aren't telling our family yet (so if you happen to know me or my wife, or our family keep it hush), but I had to tell someone.

Here is what my wife gave me to tell me the news.

20140201_111302.jpg

:rock::crazy::)
 
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#3
#3
Great work as always. I really enjoy when you post this kind of stuff.

And also huge congrats to you and your wife! That is awesome man!
 
#4
#4
daj2576 said:
This won't be as long as my usual posts. I am working on more graphics and a more in-depth discussion to be published later.

So, as I have often said: recruiting correlates strongly with wins. How have the 2014 recruiting classes shaken up the landscape of the SEC? Not much really.

Here is a list of the four year recruiting averages of all SEC teams. The column on the far right shows the change in the numerical average, not a change in position rankings. Remember, about 70% or more, the team with the higher recruiting average will win a game over a team with a lower average. That number is about 90% in championship games
View attachment 74022

Here is something that will blow your mind (well, it did mine anyway). This is UT's 2014 schedule ranked by opponent's average recruiting classes. As a simple explanation of how to read this; the teams below UT should be a win, the teams above should be a loss. This schedule, by these numbers, is actually slightly easier than last year (1 game difference in predicted wins vs. losses).

View attachment 74023

Here is a graphic illustrating how this recruiting class (projected into a 2 deep with the remaining players) improves the overall roster immensely.

View attachment 74024

More discussion to follow on my blog. I'll keep you posted.

If you want to see how these numbers worked last year, insofar as singular games and seasonal trends, click here:

https://docs.google.com/a/mybloodis...yfdEpwUHpyWXUzY3JWRFU1Skc1UTRiZ2c&output=html
Click to expand...
Great info OP, much appreciated. Was our O-line really that low ranked last year?
 
#6
#6
TennMan101 said:
Great info OP, much appreciated. Was our O-line really that low ranked last year?
Click to expand...

Those numbers are all from Rivals, and are the star averages of the two-deep.

One thing that seems to confuse people is the idea that the backfield also includes the QBs, which is why with the addition of Hurd, the overall average remains unchanged from last year.

Possible that we made a mistake, but we just checked the numbers again today.

It is incredible, to me, that we go from a two-deep that averages no stars, to a roster that averages four, in one off season.
 
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#8
#8
First things first, Congratulations!

Now call Steve Spurrier and tell him he has no chance against UT next year. The numbers never lie.:crazy:
 
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#12
#12
daj2576 said:
By the way, I have other great news. After ten years of marriage, my wife is finally pregnant! I am going to be a father, and I have never been so scared and happy all at once. We aren't telling our family yet (so if you happen to know me or my wife, or our family keep it hush), but I had to tell someone.

Here is what my wife gave me to tell me the news.

View attachment 74025

:rock::crazy::)
Click to expand...

congrats on the kid :)
 
#13
#13
Daj, congrats on the baby. That was a very long wait...

I love your analysis, but do you sufficiently factor the level of experience? Our talent rating got better, but shouldn't there be a discount for freshmen talent? Everything held equal a team of 4* freshman would be at a huge disadvantage against a team of 4* seniors. Our roster is very heavy in underclass men, I feel like just looking a talent without factoring in experience isn't as accurate of a predictor.
 
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#14
#14
4 year impact players are hard to find. How different is the first chart if you do 3 year averages instead of 4? Coz i know dooley's classes sucked big time!
 
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#16
#16
I don't think you should predict wins over teams based off recruiting rankings prior to players getting on campus. As we have seen, a high ranking class like Kiffin's, meant very little after 3 years due to turnover.
A better measure would be a re ranking 3-4 yrs after each class is signed, and of course, development, no coaching changes, and lack of turnover will increase talent, depth and wins.
 
#17
#17
Your first child! After 10 years!

CoNgRaTuLaTiOnS!!!!!!! What a blessing!

Took us seven. Wife about wrecked her car getting into the driveway after the secret Dr. appointment.

Get ready for your lives to change ... so, so much for the better.
 
#18
#18
Great analysis DAJ, mind if I ask what you do for a living....? Im guessing accounting or IT.
 
#19
#19
It would take a lot of research, but I'd like to see SEC data going back several years on the star rankings of gameday rosters. A chart for who actually played and another for the gameday depth chart. I think it may be even more telling than what you have done, which is great by the way. So much attrition, transfer, busts, etc. from freshman recruiting classes. How hard is it to find the Rivals Rating for each player to take the field? Take a whole office.
 
#20
#20
Congrats on fatherhood :rock: GOOD JOB GOOD EFFORT :clap: Now...can we get to your purpose in life?
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#24
#24
daj2576 said:
By the way, I have other great news. After ten years of marriage, my wife is finally pregnant! I am going to be a father, and I have never been so scared and happy all at once. We aren't telling our family yet (so if you happen to know me or my wife, or our family keep it hush), but I had to tell someone.

Here is what my wife gave me to tell me the news.

View attachment 74025

:rock::crazy::)
Click to expand...

Big Congrats!
 
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