The 2014 Recruiting Class: A first look at the impact.

#26
#26
I always enjoy reading your posts and every time I do I'm reminded of that old saying, "it ain't about the X's and O's, it's about the Jimmies and Joes." There is a lot of truth to that. Congratulations on becoming a father. I am happy for you, but I am sure that will cut into the time you have to do this kind of research, and I for one will miss it.
 
#27
#27
So, if you go by this, the USCe win was supposed to happen, so it can't be called a signature win.
 
#28
#28
Congrats on the new arrival......nothing better....every day that I see my 10 yr old and my wife I am reminded of how lucky and blessed I am...
 
#29
#29
1. Dooley left the cupboard bare.
2. This is as expected regarding our wr core. We will be Nasty next year with a lot of new talent.

3. What a contrast in the secondary to two years ago - when my grandma could outrun most of our db's.

4. You need to also somehow chart - and make allowances for home vs. away and then % of freshmen or year in school. A 4* senior is a lot different than a 4* freshman.

What this tells us is look for Freshman everywhere next season. We will be crazy young but athletic and fast.

Next year will be an unknown but 2015 - watch out.

Sooooonnnnn.
 
#30
#30
manfromtn said:
So, if you go by this, the USCe win was supposed to happen, so it can't be called a signature win.
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I think that list is after this current class is added in thus that explains why TN is now ahead of USCe. It's not from before last season.

Also, You realize USCe ended up ranked #4 in the final AP poll? If beating that team with a National Championship hall of fame head coach is not a signature win for Butch what is?
 
#31
#31
tim said:
Great analysis. mind if I ask what you do for a living....? Im guessing accounting or IT.
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Right now I have two full time jobs: I am in the home stretch of law school and I work for an organization that, among other things, is interested in predictive sports analytics.

About six months ago, I sold a land surveying company that I started in 2006. Data analysis is something that has been in my blood for a very long time.
 
#32
#32
Neyland Law Vol said:
I think that list is after this current class is added in thus that explains why TN is now ahead of USCe. It's not from before last season.

Also, You realize USCe ended up ranked #4 in the final AP poll? If beating that team with a National Championship hall of fame head coach is not a signature win for Butch what is?
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I don't think you'll find a time when SCAR has out recruited UT over a four year span.
 
#33
#33
Orangedogsrule said:
It would take a lot of research, but I'd like to see SEC data going back several years on the star rankings of gameday rosters. A chart for who actually played and another for the gameday depth chart. I think it may be even more telling than what you have done, which is great by the way. So much attrition, transfer, busts, etc. from freshman recruiting classes. How hard is it to find the Rivals Rating for each player to take the field? Take a whole office.
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I can tell you this: attrition across the board is very similar. There are teams that are outliers but to get to a correlation above 70% you begin to realize that all other factors (coaching/attrition/development/etc) are what account for the 30% of the time it doesn't work.

Bottom line here...talent is 70% of the game. Everything else you can think of is part of the 30% of the time talent doesn't predict wins.
 
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#34
#34
daj2576 said:
I can tell you this: attrition across the board is very similar. There are teams that are outliers but to get to a correlation above 70% you begin to realize that all other factors (coaching/attrition/development/etc) are what account for the 30% of the time it doesn't work.

Bottom line here...talent is 70% of the game. Everything else you can think of is part of the 30% of the time talent doesn't predict wins.
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well said. It's great that we finally have an outstanding recruiter back on the hill. Top 10 class every year from here on out.
 
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#35
#35
This is a really great class. But I want to see how he recruits next year if we go 5-7 or 6-6 and there isn't a bunch of legacy players in the class to help boost it. I'm not trying to bring something negative to the day. But it is a realistic thought. How would this class have been without all the legacy recruits??? I'm confident in our coaches. But I hope we land some big fish next hear.
 
#37
#37
daj2576 said:
By the way, I have other great news. After ten years of marriage, my wife is finally pregnant! I am going to be a father, and I have never been so scared and happy all at once. We aren't telling our family yet (so if you happen to know me or my wife, or our family keep it hush), but I had to tell someone.

Here is what my wife gave me to tell me the news.

View attachment 74025

:rock::crazy::)
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Congrats. But you already post this just last week. If so you have an excellent strategy for getting likes!
 
#38
#38
Something that blows my mind, is how AWFUL South Alabama's recruiting rankings are over the past few years, and how they nearly beat us last year.:no:
 
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#39
#39
In 2 years we wont need a chart to go by you will be able to look on the field and see 4 first round NFL DRAFT PICKS PLAYING ON THE FIELD AT THE SAME TIME, LIKE THE GOOD OLD DAYS WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO BEGIN BACK AT THE TOP, this team coul go 6 and 6 and be very good by the end of the year, the big word IF we get good Quarterback play we could win 8..
 
#40
#40
VolFan4Life87 said:
Something that blows my mind, is how AWFUL South Alabama's recruiting rankings are over the past few years, and how they nearly beat us last year.:no:
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"Almost" doesn't count...in anything.

Don't get hung up on score differentials, they will frequently mislead. How bad you win or lose is effected by all sorts of peripherals.

All my eval does is show you who you can expect to win the majority of the time not how much they should win by. And in a 12 game season for UT, the numbers were right ten times including south Bama.
 
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#41
#41
chattavol420 said:
Congrats. But you already post this just last week. If so you have an excellent strategy for getting likes!
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? I didn't know until Saturday morning, so I'm fairly certain I didn't post anything about that last week. Unless, I invented a time machine and my future self came back to tell you guys that my wife was pregnant thus stealing the Thunder from my present self.

:)
 
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#42
#42
daj2576 said:
? I didn't know until Saturday morning, so I'm fairly certain I didn't post anything about that last week. Unless, I invented a time machine and my future self came back to tell you guys that my wife was pregnant thus stealing the Thunder from my present self.

:)
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Don't go getting yourself all worked up or anything.... I said congrats. There's been a bunch of these posts/threads of late. Must be all the bad weather.
 
#43
#43
daj2576 said:
"Almost" doesn't count...in anything.

Don't get hung up on score differentials, they will frequently mislead. How bad you win or lose is effected by all sorts of peripherals.

All my eval does is show you who you can expect to win the majority of the time not how much they should win by. And in a 12 game season for UT, the numbers were right ten times including south Bama.
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I agree from a statistical outlook but if you look at South Alabama's recruiting classes over the last few years, they are in the top 5-10 worst in all of FBS. And I think they were FCS just a few years ago. Their QB looked amazing against our defense. I would've gladly taken him over all the QB's we had on roster last year (seemingly).
 
#44
#44
daj2576 said:
? I didn't know until Saturday morning, so I'm fairly certain I didn't post anything about that last week. Unless, I invented a time machine and my future self came back to tell you guys that my wife was pregnant thus stealing the Thunder from my present self.

:)
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Your future self should be more helpful instead of causing mischief. He could definitely be a big help with these predictions. :p

Big congrats on your future recruit. Best thing that will ever happen to you. :thumbsup:
 
#45
#45
SimplyOrange said:
Your future self should be more helpful instead of causing mischief. He could definitely be a big help with these predictions. :p

Big congrats on your future recruit. Best thing that will ever happen to you. :thumbsup:
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The problem is that my future self is smart enough to know that he can't contact me directly, as that would disturb the space-time continuum.

I am sure he is dying to tell me about UT's next national championship, and how my child grows up. :)
 
#46
#46
It's all kind of a moot point, since we've had so much attrition that our vs. everyone else's recruiting rankings really don't mathematically matter. Hopefully going forward, it will.
 
#47
#47
chattavol420 said:
Don't go getting yourself all worked up or anything.... I said congrats. There's been a bunch of these posts/threads of late. Must be all the bad weather.
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chattavols needs a little varmint of his own...he has TOO MUCH LOVE TO GIVE :wub:
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#48
#48
VolFan4Life87 said:
I agree from a statistical outlook but if you look at South Alabama's recruiting classes over the last few years, they are in the top 5-10 worst in all of FBS. And I think they were FCS just a few years ago. Their QB looked amazing against our defense. I would've gladly taken him over all the QB's we had on roster last year (seemingly).
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I think you are making too much of nothing. USA lost the game, just as talent predicted. That has been one of the hardest things for me to grasp, so I understand how you must feel. Teams with huge talent differentials often have very close games, and teams with pretty even talent sometimes are blow outs. One thing that is interesting is that teams who recruit in the bottom 50 have a lower correlation of wins than those who have an average in the top 50.

It is hard to attribute how much of a "close" game can be attributed to the superior team not "getting up" to play a team that is far inferior, and similarly how a far inferior team can be motivated knowing that they have nothing to lose. The outcome is still fairly consistent (70% of the time the more talented team wins) but the score appears inconsistent enough to be a head scratcher.
 
#49
#49
Orange to the Bay said:
It's all kind of a moot point, since we've had so much attrition that our vs. everyone else's recruiting rankings really don't mathematically matter. Hopefully going forward, it will.
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The attrition has thrown us below talent predictions, but it has mostly worked itself out.

Last year we were 2 games under talent predictions, which still means that in 10 of 12 games (83%), talent correctly predicted the outcome.
 
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#50
#50
Here is the entire SEC ranked by talent averages for 2014. As a rule of thumb you can count on about 50% of the seasonal predictions being on point, about 70% of the teams will be within 1 game of seasonal predictions, and about 80% will be within 2 games of seasonal predictions.

3 teams will be anomalies (more than 4 games above or below predictions).

If you look at individual games, the prediction rate approaches 80% in the SEC. The SEC is one of the more predictable conferences using this evaluation.

I will keep the chart updated here after the season begins.
https://docs.google.com/a/mybloodis...yfdEU2WkFralNPVTE1VG5xa0Ffak5OMmc&output=html
 

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