The 2014 Recruiting Class: A first look at the impact.

[Boca Vol]

As to Utah State, no. They beat Northwestern who averages below 50 recruiting. Teams below 50 tend to have a slightly lower correlation between these averages and wins. The reason is that the recruiting services do a great job of differentiating 3-5 star players. But, when you have a team that is made of largely lessor rated players the services get very muddy.

When you have a team rated in the top 25, playing against a bottom half team, the prediction rate falls above the averages (easier to predict). The spread, however, tends to be less predictable. It can be a very close game, but the outcome is almost set in stone.

The ranking and bowl systems are asinine. They basically ignore SoS and go for wins. The 8th best team in the land could hypothetically finish the season with 7 losses (if they played the top 7 teams). But, that team wouldn't be bowl eligible and would show up around 50 in our current polls. This then favors the perception of a mediocre team like Utah State. The way we look at football is a travesty to me.

Could Utah State win this game? Yup. Is it likely? Nope.

I agree to the rankings and SOS! As good as UT's class was all they have to do is look around them in the rankings for a dose of reality. UT will have to do that every year just to stay competitive.

Back to Utah St. That is an interesting game because from a numbers standpoint it should be a rout, but I promise you that isn't a team UT is taking lightly.

 

[hndog609]

I think we largely agree.The problem that I have with the "elite QB" statement that many make, is that whether you cite Winston, Tebow, or Newton (anyone but Vince young really), you are looking at a team that had a better four year recruiting average than 100% of their BCS championship opponents. Its just too difficult, for me, to distinguish that one player from the others.

For instance: many say that Manziel is the best QB they have ever seen. If you look at this evaluation you quickly see that ATM's hype was based on one over-performance against Bama. Otherwise they performed about as talent predicted. In fact, that lone win is explainable more by Saban's shortcomings defending specific schemes than Manziel's skill.

In fact I do think we largely agree. However, if you look more closely at my argument you'll see it's not what Manziel allowed TAMU to win but what they avoided losing. I'm not at all certain TAMU wouldn't have been much worse without Manziel to bail them out. They finished 109th in total defense. They won the Ole Miss, Miss St and Duke (bowl) games in spite of giving up 127pts (42.33 ppg) pretty much entirely due to the fact Manziel averaged 391yds passing, 81yds rushing and 4tds in those games.

Basically, I think it more than a little likely that sans Manziel TAMU and that woeful defense finish with only 6 wins...5 being pretty believable when you consider they gave up 483yds and 33pts to Arkansas.

 

[xpsyclonex2002]

?

 

[daj2576]

I agree to the rankings and SOS! As good as UT's class was all they have to do is look around them in the rankings for a dose of reality. UT will have to do that every year just to stay competitive.

Back to Utah St. That is an interesting game because from a numbers standpoint it should be a rout, but I promise you that isn't a team UT is taking lightly.

I can't give you a number but I can tell you that frequently the distance between team's recruiting does not correlate to a difference in score. In fact, sometimes its the inverse. Scores are over utilized by fans as a way to judge a team. I try to divorce myself from that view and just look at wins over losses and most importantly about how often a coach wins games talent says he shouldn't, and vice versa.

 

[daj2576]

In fact I do think we largely agree. However, if you look more closely at my argument you'll see it's not what Manziel allowed TAMU to win but what they avoided losing. I'm not at all certain TAMU wouldn't have been much worse without Manziel to bail them out. They finished 109th in total defense. They won the Ole Miss, Miss St and Duke (bowl) games in spite of giving up 127pts (42.33 ppg) pretty much entirely due to the fact Manziel averaged 391yds passing, 81yds rushing and 4tds in those games.

Basically, I think it more than a little likely that sans Manziel TAMU and that woeful defense finish with only 6 wins...5 being pretty believable when you consider they gave up 483yds and 33pts to Arkansas.

You might very well be right in re Manziel. That just isn't a brand of speculation that my analysis is capable of debating.

 

[majorvol]

Something that blows my mind, is how AWFUL South Alabama's recruiting rankings are over the past few years, and how they nearly beat us last year.:no:

Maybe a good coach that hasn't got his big break. Or maybe a old ball coach that can coach'em up.

 

[tm3]

I think you are making too much of nothing. USA lost the game, just as talent predicted. That has been one of the hardest things for me to grasp, so I understand how you must feel. Teams with huge talent differentials often have very close games, and teams with pretty even talent sometimes are blow outs. One thing that is interesting is that teams who recruit in the bottom 50 have a lower correlation of wins than those who have an average in the top 50.

It is hard to attribute how much of a "close" game can be attributed to the superior team not "getting up" to play a team that is far inferior, and similarly how a far inferior team can be motivated knowing that they have nothing to lose. The outcome is still fairly consistent (70% of the time the more talented team wins) but the score appears inconsistent enough to be a head scratcher.

Kind of puts a new light on "Kiffin almost beat Bama"

 

[Burger]

Maybe a good coach that hasn't got his big break. Or maybe a old ball coach that can coach'em up.

Joey Jones, their coach, has an SEC staff down there including Jhevis Jackson.. He's a big up and comer

 

[butchna]

Joey Jones, their coach, has an SEC staff down there including Jhevis Jackson.. He's a big up and comer

Bama alum...played for Bear...NFL hanger on...remember his time with the Falcons for some reason...knew his name as soon as I saw that he was their head coach...definitely paid his dues the right way.
Posted via VolNation Mobile

 

[daj2576]

Kind of puts a new light on "Kiffin almost beat Bama"

Very good point. The W or L is all that matters. At the final whistle, whether a team loses by 1 point or 50, they will forever be infinitely far from a win.

Fans seem to derive great satisfaction from score differentials, but really those are inconsequential unless they have bet their mortgage on the spread.

The true metric, for me, is simple: win all of the games you should based on talent differentials, improve talent, and start winning games you shouldn't. That is the formula for long term success and championships.

Jones has averaged 3.5 games a year MORE than his talent would predict over his 7 year history, even with a 2 game under-performance last year. I'll take that as a down-payment on future success, especially considering how well he seems to recruit.

 

[daj2576]

By the way, to everyone offering congrats, I thank you! Keep us in your thoughts.

 

[tm3]

Jones has averaged 3.5 games a year MORE than his talent would predict over his 7 year history, even with a 2 game under-performance last year. I'll take that as a down-payment on future success, especially considering how well he seems to recruit.

Yes and after a season with decidedly mixed results that is what I consider one of the biggest positives looking forward. IIRC from your earlier posts there are not a lot of other coaches that far in the plus column.

 

[daj2576]

Yes and after a season with decidedly mixed results that is what I consider one of the biggest positives looking forward. IIRC from your earlier posts there are not a lot of other coaches that far in the plus column.

No, not many at all.

Petrino while at Arky comes to mind and Franklin at Vandy. Though both performed at that level for a far shorter period than Jones. To be fair, if Jones continues to recruit well and assuming he performs at or above expectations, that number will drop as he will approach a talent ceiling.