It’s rare to find a solid four-pitch mix late in drafts, especially paired with a 25%+ strikeout rate. Canning’s well-rounded arsenal pairs a 94 mph heater with a stellar low-80s curveball, a lateral 90 mph changeup, and an upper-80s gyro slider, all of which can earn whiffs when executed. There are a few warts, however. None of these pitches are exceptional mitigators of hard contact, a product of questionable command that has Canning fighting with his arsenal often, hoping to execute the right pitch but falling behind or allowing his heater to fall into the zone at inopportune times.
I love Canning’s reluctance to throw heaters and I hope it continues. He dropped the four-seamer to just 33% usage in 2023, though I was surprised to see his curveball fall to just 13% usage – I consider the big hook his best offering, as his favored breaker (his 29% usage slider) isn’t as sharp and held a near 40% ICR last year. At the very least, a more even split makes the most sense in my view.
All in all, there is a world where Canning gets into a rhythm with all four pitches for a long stretch, prompting solid ratios and strikeouts, though I worry that his propensity for the longball + inconsistent health will make it difficult to trust him outside of great matchups. If only there was a little more dependable electricity in his four-seamer or breaking balls.
