The New Formula for Success in College Football

#26
#26
AstonRoyal said:
Let me guess, you're trying to make us feel better with Heupel's average recruiting ability 😜
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I suppose so.

I just think recruiting doesn’t matter as much anymore. You got a talented kid? Great, theres a good chance he leaves for gr$$ner pastures.

You need a whole new secondary? Great, jump in the portal and Moneyball your way to a good defensive backfield.

The times, they are a changin’. He who figures out how to navigate it first is gonna win big.
 
#30
#30
casual-observer said:
Success in college football up until 2020 consisted of the following formula:

-> Recruiting of top talent (33%)
-> Player development (33%)
-> In-game coaching (33%)

Recruiting of top talent was traditionally dominated by the blue bloods (Alabama, Ohio State, Texas, USC). In the past couple of years we've seen the success from top recruiting programs like Georgia and Clemson.

Player development is where teams like Oregon, Washington, TCU have excelled - they might not have top recruiting classes but have been able to develop and win with the talent they have. This is also where staffs like Butch Jones and Jim McElwain have faired poorly.

In-game coaching is where coaches make their names: Saban, Carroll, Spurrier are some of the greats in this category.


-------- Enter 2020, a confusing couple of COVID years, and the passing of NIL ----------


The teams of the future will be able to navigate the NFL-lite nature of sponsorships and deals. Players will move continuously in and out of programs with zero loyalty (I don't like it, but who can blame them?)


I believe the new formula for success will look something like this:

-> Recruiting of top high school talent (10%)
-> Attract top talent through NIL (15%)
-> Leverage the transfer portal to quickly fill gaps (20%)
-> Player development and ability to assimilate quickly into a new system (20%)
-> In-game coaching (35%)

I think the importance of recruiting has dropped significantly. Why invest so much in young, under-developed talent only to have them leave for gr$$ner pastures as they progress in their talent. Player development has changes as well. There is not longer an idea of moulding an athlete so they peak in year 3 and hope for a fourth year. Now it's - how fast can we develop inbound transfers because they might only be around for one year.

This new formula diminishes the drama of the high school talent choosing their school. It also renders a yawn for news of top players leaving a program.

My $.02 during this 'recruiting' time of year. I used to get excited watching and hoping where the recruits would shake out. Now I just hope for great purchases through the Transfer Portal. And not too many important losses.
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I almost think you are placing too much value on recruiting high school kids. I think that as the portal becomes the more important roster building tactic, high school kids (outside of the superstar talents of course) will have to go FBS or D2 to try and get seen creating a de facto minor league system
 
#31
#31
volsack said:
I almost think you are placing too much value on recruiting high school kids. I think that as the portal becomes the more important roster building tactic, high school kids (outside of the superstar talents of course) will have to go FBS or D2 to try and get seen creating a de facto minor league system
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I agree. Wasn't sure what the 'new' value is but again, with the talent coming and going at will ($$), high school recruiting and player development (from a 3-4 year perspective) might just dwindle down to nothing.

I truly believe that he who figures this new formula out first will have a few years of success before everyone else catches on.
 
#32
#32
It’s a popularity/ beauty contest that’s what wins the big recruits and transfers. Money talks but having money and a national platform really gets you attention, which is what 99% of these players want. If our offense would have been prolific again this year you would have saw more kids wanting to come here and play on that side of the ball, but we dipped so we have to prove that we can be that style of team and then those kids continue to come.

It seems we swing and miss a lot on the portal that has to get better for sure.
 
#34
#34
casual-observer said:
I agree. Wasn't sure what the 'new' value is but again, with the talent coming and going at will ($$), high school recruiting and player development (from a 3-4 year perspective) might just dwindle down to nothing.

I truly believe that he who figures this new formula out first will have a few years of success before everyone else catches on.
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Exactly. I can't wait for the first coach to completely skip high school recruiting because the value is better in the portal
 
#35
#35
volsack said:
Exactly. I can't wait for the first coach to completely skip high school recruiting because the value is better in the portal
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YES!

And...what if this is less taxing on resources? I mean, even waaaay less taxing.

I'm sure most college football coaches loathe the process of petting young, potential talent. Could be a game changer.
 
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#36
#36
The better teams use the portal less, they also lose the least to the portal. Everybody acts like the portal is the answer to everyone’s problems. While there are quality players in the portal there are more average players in the portal. Actually many go down in competition. Not many star players leave top teams unless there are underlying issues. Recruiting and developing are still the most important things by far. GBO
 
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#37
#37
casual-observer said:
YES!

And...what if this is less taxing on resources? I mean, even waaaay less taxing.

I'm sure most college football coaches loathe the process of petting young, potential talent. Could be a game changer.
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For sure. I bet money Kiffin is already thinking about how he can do just that and not leave Oxford
 
#38
#38
Woodlawn VOL said:
The better teams use the portal less, they also lose the least to the portal. Everybody acts like the portal is the answer to everyone’s problems. While there are quality players in the portal there are more average players in the portal. Actually many go down in competition. Not many star players leave top teams unless there are underlying issues. Recruiting and developing are still the most important things by far. GBO
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You're not wrong at all, but what you aren't considering is that every player in the portal is a known quantity, in that they have tape at the college level and you know what you are getting. However, high school kids are unknown and prone to be busts: see the kid at Rice who was the starter as a freshman at USC as a five star, and then transferred to West Virginia before finishing at Rice. If you want to go the other direction: Alvin Kamara. Recruiting high school kids will become less important as coaches face pressure to win earlier. High school kids will eventually go G5, FBS or Juco before getting in the portal to go Power 5, and recruiting will be a thing of the past.
 
#39
#39
Woodlawn VOL said:
The better teams use the portal less, they also lose the least to the portal. Everybody acts like the portal is the answer to everyone’s problems. While there are quality players in the portal there are more average players in the portal. Actually many go down in competition. Not many star players leave top teams unless there are underlying issues. Recruiting and developing are still the most important things by far. GBO
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I agree that is the case...today.

But we are starting to see higher-caliber players leaving programs for $$. Doesn't Georgia have 14 players since 12/1 that have entered this year. Several of them 4-stars?

Look what's happened to Clemson refusing to pilfer the TP. It's only a matter of time before the Alabamas and Ohio States start to be affected.
 
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#40
#40
volsack said:
You're not wrong at all, but what you aren't considering is that every player in the portal is a known quantity, in that they have tape at the college level and you know what you are getting. However, high school kids are unknown and prone to be busts: see the kid at Rice who was the starter as a freshman at USC as a five star, and then transferred to West Virginia before finishing at Rice. If you want to go the other direction: Alvin Kamara. Recruiting high school kids will become less important as coaches face pressure to win earlier. High school kids will eventually go G5, FBS or Juco before getting in the portal to go Power 5, and recruiting will be a thing of the past.
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Will the Group of 5 schools feed -> Power 5 schools feed -> NFL?
 
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#43
#43
Would you rather...

(a) pour your heart and soul (and precious time energy) into a kid that commits only to bail on you in year two

(b) pick up talent from the portal

There are plenty of good and bad examples of both (JT Daniels, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts)
 
#44
#44
casual-observer said:
Would you rather...

(a) pour your heart and soul (and precious time energy) into a kid that commits only to bail on you in year two

(b) pick up talent from the portal

There are plenty of good and bad examples of both (JT Daniels, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts)
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B-just because of the known quantity of who I'm recruiting
 
#45
#45
We & other programs will learn to say THX for the year “We hardly knew you” and will probably forget you. Gone are the days when great players hung around 4 or 5 year & were synonymous with the team when you mentioned their name. Reggie White, Peyton Manning, Al Wilson, those type players you either break the bank to keep them around or they shop around. Can’t blame them and it will continue because ppl like me are addicted to following the game & eyes & ears spend money which makes the world & entities like this go around. So we have to learn to accept maybe not like but it’s the new norm.
 
#46
#46
jeff1vol said:
I'd go with...
90% recruiting
7.5% development
2.5% in game coaching (I mean Les Miles and Larry Coker won NC's)
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I could not agree more, gameday coaching is drastically overrated. Do Kirby Smart and Mike Bobo strike anyone as tactical geniuses? Ed Ogre has the same number of NCs as Steve Spurrier. Saban was 34-24-1 at Michigan State.

And yes, even Larry Coker has a title and was a tough pass interference call away from having double the NCs of Steve Spurrier.
 
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#48
#48
MurphyVol said:
I could not agree more, gameday coaching is drastically overrated. Do Kirby Smart and Mike Bobo strike anyone as tactical geniuses? Ed Ogre has the same number of NCs as Steve Spurrier. Saban was 34-24-1 at Michigan State.

And yes, even Larry Coker has a title and was a tough pass interference call away from having double the NCs of Steve Spurrier.
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I couldn't disagree more. Ogeron brought in Brady who coached one of the most prolific offenses ever. Burrow did not look that good the previous year.

Kirby took a team that could never get over the hump to 2 championships and played in another in only 8 years. He's 85-11 not counting his first year. That's over 12 wins a year average. 4 of those losses is from Saban.

Saban didn't have any talent to work with at Michigan St. I don't care how good of a coach you are your not turning crap into roses. That's like turning miss st into a contender. It's not happening. He literally changed LSU into a powerhouse and a huge reason they are who they are now. Bama was bad when he got there but after 1 year he righted the ship. Since then he's had 15 and counting consecutive 10 win seasons and 6 national titles. One of which he inserted a true freshmen into a national championship game at halftime to win it. How many coaches do you think would or has done that?

Recruiting is still by far the biggest thing. Without talent nobody is winning but mesh talent with a great coach who can manage egos, build a culture and demand the best you're going to win a lot of trophies. It's not difficult looking at it from the outside but it's one of the hardest things to do or everybody would be doing it
 
#49
#49
Woodlawn VOL said:
The better teams use the portal less, they also lose the least to the portal. Everybody acts like the portal is the answer to everyone’s problems. While there are quality players in the portal there are more average players in the portal. Actually many go down in competition. Not many star players leave top teams unless there are underlying issues. Recruiting and developing are still the most important things by far. GBO
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More fodder for this discussion. Again, I totally agree with you - the better teams do use the portal less. I also believe this will soon change.

I saw the news yesterday Georgia's Dumas-Johnson (a Butkus award finalist in 2022) and 5-star recruit A.J. Harris have both entered the portal. That makes a total of 18 this year (so far) that have entered the portal from the GA program.

So what if they were 5-star recruits. So what if they helped boost GA's earlier recruiting classes. They will not be at GA and will be helping some other team.

Same can be said for that high-power$d aTm recruiting class - many of those guys are going to be playing elsewhere.

I'll say it again...the staff that figures out the portal first is going to make some quick waves. But I don't think it will last as it becomes the 'new normal'
 
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