Success in college football up until 2020 consisted of the following formula:
-> Recruiting of top talent (33%)
-> Player development (33%)
-> In-game coaching (33%)
Recruiting of top talent was traditionally dominated by the blue bloods (Alabama, Ohio State, Texas, USC). In the past couple of years we've seen the success from top recruiting programs like Georgia and Clemson.
Player development is where teams like Oregon, Washington, TCU have excelled - they might not have top recruiting classes but have been able to develop and win with the talent they have. This is also where staffs like Butch Jones and Jim McElwain have faired poorly.
In-game coaching is where coaches make their names: Saban, Carroll, Spurrier are some of the greats in this category.
-------- Enter 2020, a confusing couple of COVID years, and the passing of NIL ----------
The teams of the future will be able to navigate the NFL-lite nature of sponsorships and deals. Players will move continuously in and out of programs with zero loyalty (I don't like it, but who can blame them?)
I believe the new formula for success will look something like this:
-> Recruiting of top high school talent (10%)
-> Attract top talent through NIL (15%)
-> Leverage the transfer portal to quickly fill gaps (20%)
-> Player development and ability to assimilate quickly into a new system (20%)
-> In-game coaching (35%)
I think the importance of recruiting has dropped significantly. Why invest so much in young, under-developed talent only to have them leave for gr$$ner pastures as they progress in their talent. Player development has changes as well. There is not longer an idea of moulding an athlete so they peak in year 3 and hope for a fourth year. Now it's - how fast can we develop inbound transfers because they might only be around for one year.
This new formula diminishes the drama of the high school talent choosing their school. It also renders a yawn for news of top players leaving a program.
My $.02 during this 'recruiting' time of year. I used to get excited watching and hoping where the recruits would shake out. Now I just hope for great purchases through the Transfer Portal. And not too many important losses.
