The next president is going to be a Democrat

[WA_Vol]

I watched part of the Repubican debate, and the discussion that followed on CNN and CSpan.

I still have this in my mind. For the Republicans to win the presidential election, they have to carry swing states like Ohio and Florida again. The Republicans barely cared those states in the last presidential election. The Iraq war is now more unpopular then it has ever been, and Bush has the lowest approval rating of any modern president, matching Carter. I don't see any scenario where the Republicans will win this election.

On a sidebar, seemingly every call to CSpan dealt with the disgust with the immigration bill being proposed. How do the Republicans, keep ignoring the will of the people on this issue?

 

[GAVol]

I'm not sure the Republican nominee was in the debate tonight.

 

[WA_Vol]

I'm not sure the Republican nominee was in the debate tonight.

I listened to some of the speech Thompson gave in San Diego, and saw him on Hannity. I've been somewhat disappointed.

But any position the Republican nominee takes supporting the Iraq war, IMO is going to get them defeated. They don't seem to realize that.

 

[GAVol]

...and I agree that whoever the GOP candidate is will have a tough fight to win the White House. But I've also been amazed at how bad the last two Democratic Presidential campaigns have gone in similar circumstances where it appeared that the planets were aligned for a Democrat to win.

 

[GAVol]

But any position the Republican nominee takes supporting the Iraq war, IMO is going to get them defeated. They don't seem to realize that.

I don't know that anti-war is necessarily a litmus test as long as the candidate does a good job of articulating a plan. If anything I think the anti-war candidates run the risk of being marginalized if the war results turn more positive or if plans are announced for a reduction in troops.

 

[WA_Vol]

...and I agree that whoever the GOP candidate is will have a tough fight to win the White House. But I've also been amazed at how bad the last two Democratic Presidential campaigns have gone in similar circumstances where it appeared that the planets were aligned for a Democrat to win.

True. I think many people will be voting against the Iraq War and the Bush policy on immigration when they vote for a democrat in the next election. Not voting for the Democratic candidate as voting against the Iraq War. Just like they did in the last election.

That should have been a wake-up call to the Republicans. I think more incumbents from both sides will be voted out of office after this immigration bill.

 

[WA_Vol]

I don't know that anti-war is necessarily a litmus test as long as the candidate does a good job of articulating a plan. If anything I think the anti-war candidates run the risk of being marginalized if the war results turn more positive or if plans are announced for a reduction in troops.

I still see no scenario where they carry states like Florida and Ohio again in this election. Thats what has to happen for a Republican to win election.

 

[GAVol]

I go back to my original statement. What you are saying makes perfect sense, but George W. Bush pulled it off in 2004 in very similar circumstances and with an approval rating below 50%.

I guess what I'm saying is that the Democrats have to win the election; not wait for the Republican to lose it.

 

[BigPapaVol]

I still see no scenario where they carry states like Florida and Ohio again in this election. Thats what has to happen for a Republican to win election.

there was no reason for W to win in 04. the lack of competition was the deciding factor. same will likely be the problem for dems in '08

 

[WA_Vol]

I go back to my original statement. What you are saying makes perfect sense, but George W. Bush pulled it off in 2004 in very similar circumstances and with an approval rating below 50%.

I guess what I'm saying is that the Democrats have to win the election; not wait for the Republican to lose it.

The election you saw 2 years ago will be a repeat IMO. The public dislike of the war is higher now then it was then.

 

[GAVol]

The question for the GOP is going to be energizing their base with this crop of candidates that up until now have been uninspiring. I guess if this trend continues they can always hope that the Dems nominate Hillary which will energize the GOP base for them.

 

[WA_Vol]

there was no reason for W to win in 04. the lack of competition was the deciding factor. same will likely be the problem for dems in '08

Any of the top 3 dem's will beat the Republican nominee IMO. Its going to be another referendum on the Iraq war and partly the immigration policy. I think most incumbents will take a beating on both sides, but particularly the Republicans.

 

[GAVol]

The election you saw 2 years ago will be a repeat IMO. The public dislike of the war is higher now then it was then.

I can't imagine that the current administration isn't going to do something to significantly draw down troop levels by next summer and change the debate a little.

 

[WA_Vol]

The question for the GOP is going to be energizing their base with this crop of candidates that up until now have been uninspiring. I guess if this trend continues they can always hope that the Dems nominate Hillary which will energize the GOP base for them.

Exactly energizing their base. But they will never be able to energize the base enough to carry Ohio and Florida IMO. They are on the wrong side of two many unpopular issues.

 

[WA_Vol]

I can't imagine that the current administration isn't going to do something to significantly draw down troop levels by next summer and change the debate a little.

Bush is basically destroying the Republican party in the next election because of his position on the Iraq War and immigration IMO.

 

[volinbham]

The election you saw 2 years ago will be a repeat IMO. The public dislike of the war is higher now then it was then.

You mean 04? That was just over 2 years ago. 06 was less than 1 year ago.


It's the Dems to lose (kinda like 04) but is Hillary really who the country wants? If a 1/2 way decent candidate on either side could challenge Hillary they would be a shoe in.

My prediction, Hillary will win it but many/most of the votes for her will be reluctant.

 

[TennNC]

My prediction, Hillary will win it but many/most of the votes for her will be reluctant.

That sounds like a reasonable prediction at this point.

 

[WA_Vol]

You mean 04? That was just over 2 years ago. 06 was less than 1 year ago.


It's the Dems to lose (kinda like 04) but is Hillary really who the country wants? If a 1/2 way decent candidate on either side could challenge Hillary they would be a shoe in.

My prediction, Hillary will win it but many/most of the votes for her will be reluctant.

It will all come down to carrying the swing states of Ohio and Florida again. That will determine the Presidency. They will be solidly democratic this time. The unpopularity of Bush and the Iraq war is at an all-time high.

 

[g8terh8ter_eric]

9/11 would have happened had Bush been elected or not. We would be in Iraq right now had Gore been elected president in 2000, because of the 2 years Saddam spent breaking the resolutions that were imposed upon him. Would the war be any different than it is right now if someone else been in office??? Maybe, but it took the Iraqies almost 3 years to start stepping up and taking more charge of their own country so probably not. Right now as a matter of fact Congress holds the same approval rating as the President....

Poll: Congress' Approval Same As Bush | World Latest | Guardian Unlimited

The mess that is in the White House right now is going to be hard to clean up for anyone, (R) or (D). The Iraq war is still the single most important issue, while I think immigration is the second biggest issue among the others at this point right now. I want a (R) in the White House and that is Fred Thompson for me. I just hope that if a socialist (D) gets in, they don't screw up our health care system. The one factor that has SCREWED up our health care system is Illegal Immigration and that has more to do with more issues than even the Iraq war IMO.

 

[WA_Vol]

9/11 would have happened had Bush been elected or not. We would be in Iraq right now had Gore been elected president in 2000, because of the 2 years Saddam spent breaking the resolutions that were imposed upon him. Would the war be any different than it is right now if someone else been in office??? Maybe, but it took the Iraqies almost 3 years to start stepping up and taking more charge of their own country so probably not. Right now as a matter of fact Congress holds the same approval rating as the President....

Poll: Congress' Approval Same As Bush | World Latest | Guardian Unlimited

The mess that is in the White House right now is going to be hard to clean up for anyone, (R) or (D). The Iraq war is still the single most important issue, while I think immigration is the second biggest issue among the others at this point right now. I want a (R) in the White House and that is Fred Thompson for me. I just hope that if Thompson doesn't get in and a socialist (D) gets in, they don't screw up our health care system. The one factor that has SCREWED up our health care system is Illegal Immigration and that has more to do with more issues than even the Iraq war IMO.

I do not believe Gore would have went into Iraq. Not with an ongoing war in Afghanistan.

I really find the Republicans spin on the Iraq war as a war on terrorists distasteful. Everyone knows the reason giving for invading Iraq at the time was the threat they had nuclear weapons which was not true and poor intelligence and a poor decision by Bush.

There was an interesting program on Frontline discussing the CIA and Bush administration discussions before invading Iraq.

 

[allvol123]

I do not believe Gore would have went into Iraq. Not with an ongoing war in Afghanistan.

I really find the Republicans spin on the Iraq war as a war on terrorists distasteful. Everyone knows the reason giving for invading Iraq at the time was the threat they had nuclear weapons which was not true and poor intelligence and a poor decision by Bush.

There was an interesting program on Frontline discussing the CIA and Bush administration discussions before invading Iraq.

Yes, because it is obvious Iraq does not put up with terrorists.

 

[g8terh8ter_eric]

I do not believe Gore would have went into Iraq. Not with an ongoing war in Afghanistan.

I really find the Republicans spin on the Iraq war as a war on terrorists distasteful. Everyone knows the reason giving for invading Iraq at the time was the threat they had nuclear weapons which was not true and poor intelligence and a poor decision by Bush.

There was an interesting program on Frontline discussing the CIA and Bush administration discussions before invading Iraq.

If someone gave you a year to hide something before they came in to find it, how well could you hide it??

 

[WA_Vol]

there was no reason for W to win in 04. the lack of competition was the deciding factor. same will likely be the problem for dems in '08

If that election were held today, Kerry would win though. Thats the realty. Bush has the lowest approval numbers in history, matching Carter.

 

[allvol123]

If someone gave you a year to hide something before they came in to find it, how well could you hide it??

I hear they found a mass grave of Jews from WW2 just the other day. Wow, it just took them over 50 years.

 

[WA_Vol]

If someone gave you a year to hide something before they came in to find it, how well could you hide it??

I hear they found a mass grave of Jews from WW2 just the other day. Wow, it just took them over 50 years.

Radiation from enriched uranium is normally quite easy to find.

How do you think they monitor how much radiation people have been exposed to in a nuclear plant?