The Numbers Thread

#1,426
#1,426
JohnD13 said:
If you are trying to crunch the numbers assuming we get Brown, Daniels or Dickerson you may be crunching numbers for no reason. I hope I'm wrong and then all the number crunching to see how we meet the number will be worthwhile.
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No one believes that "crunching the numbers" will have any impact on actual recruiting. It's a hobby and if you don't like it, stay out of the numbers thread.
 
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#1,430
#1,430
#1,431
#1,431
RockyTopInBham said:
SBNation with a write-up today on the differences between blueshirts, grayshirts, redshirts, and greenshirts (Early Enrollees). Just thought it'd be a fairly quick read for anyone still struggling to understand some of the loopholes in CFB Recruiting.

What are the differences between redshirting, grayshirting, blueshirting and greenshirting in college football? - SBNation.com
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Except that says a Blueshirt can't play? Robertson played. Some have mentioned RDA as a Blueshirt and he played. Perry would have played had he not gotten injured.
 
#1,433
#1,433
I know some people on this board have listened to Doug Mathews Big Orange Sunday Podcast. Mathews apparently is still very connected with the football program at UT, and seems to have some fairly strong inside info. So I'm curious if anyone else has noticed, when he is discussing numbers, specifically seniors at certain positions when referring to the depth chart, he has left off a couple guys each of the past few times.

When referring to LB's, the only guy senior he ever refers to is JRM. He never includes Kenny Bynum in there. Just wondered if anyone had heard if he was moving on or if Mathews just forgot about him.

When referring to TE's, he says there are no scholarship seniors for 2016. He later mentions Croom as potentially moving there, so he's not including him, but I guess that means that Stocstill will no longer be on scholarship in 2016 if he's correct.

And there's already been some rumors out there about it, but Mathews only refers to 1 Seniors Scholly OL (Weisman). That would mean that Blair is on his way out as well.

Didn't know if anyone else had picked up on those. Just thought I'd share what I heard. And if anyone wants to catch up and listen, the link to the podcasts is below.

Podcasts | WGFX-FM
 
#1,434
#1,434
RockyTopInBham said:
I know some people on this board have listened to Doug Mathews Big Orange Sunday Podcast. Mathews apparently is still very connected with the football program at UT, and seems to have some fairly strong inside info. So I'm curious if anyone else has noticed, when he is discussing numbers, specifically seniors at certain positions when referring to the depth chart, he has left off a couple guys each of the past few times.

When referring to LB's, the only guy senior he ever refers to is JRM. He never includes Kenny Bynum in there. Just wondered if anyone had heard if he was moving on or if Mathews just forgot about him.

When referring to TE's, he says there are no scholarship seniors for 2016. He later mentions Croom as potentially moving there, so he's not including him, but I guess that means that Stocstill will no longer be on scholarship in 2016 if he's correct.

And there's already been some rumors out there about it, but Mathews only refers to 1 Seniors Scholly OL (Weisman). That would mean that Blair is on his way out as well.

Didn't know if anyone else had picked up on those. Just thought I'd share what I heard. And if anyone wants to catch up and listen, the link to the podcasts is below.

Podcasts | WGFX-FM
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Good catch. You are probably right. Like I mentioned previously, I bet Stocstill's scholly depends on numbers next fall, which he keeps until the fall. Some have mentioned that Blair is moving on as well. I haven't seen anything about Bynum leaving, but as a RS SR, he likely has his degree. We will see once the roster is updated, which is likely after signing day.
 
#1,436
#1,436
Just an update post-signing day.

Total Scholarship players:85
By Position (Bolded are graduating or likely entering draft next year)
QB- 4 (Dobbs, Dormady, Jones, Guarantano)

RB-5 (Hurd, Kamara, Kelly, Young, Fils-aime)

WR-12 (Blanc, Croom, Smith, George, Malone, Jennings, Williams, Perry, Johnson, Henderson, Callaway, Williams)

OL-15 (Wiesman, Sanders, Kendrick, Thomas, Robertson, Raulerson, Mosely, Jones, Hall, Boulware, Richmond, Stewart, Johnson, Niehaus,Tatum)

TE-5 (Wolf, Johnson, Creamer, Brooks, Pope)

DL-14 (O'brien, Lewis, Vereen, Vickers, Barnett, Mixon, Johnson, Kongbo, Phillips, Tuttle, McKenzie, Picou, Taylor, Butcher)

LB-11 (Bynum, JRM, Berry, McDowell, Bates, Bryant, Kirkland, Smith, Sapp, Bituli,Blakely)

DB-15-(Sutton, Foreman, Berry, Kelly, Moseley, Martin, Henderson, Gaulden, Griffin, Abernathy, Miller, Osbourne, Buchanon, Byrd, Warrior)

SP-4 (Townsend,Daniel, Lovingood, Medley)
 
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#1,437
#1,437
Volnukem said:
Just an update post-signing day.

Total Scholarship players:85
By Position (Bolded are graduating or likely entering draft next year)
QB- 4 (Dobbs, Dormady, Jones, Guarantano)

RB-5 (Hurd, Kamara, Kelly, Young, Fils-aime)

WR-12 (Blanc, Croom, Smith, George, Malone, Jennings, Williams, Perry, Johnson, Henderson, Callaway, Williams)

OL-15 (Wiesman, Sanders, Kendrick, Thomas, Robertson, Raulerson, Mosely, Jones, Hall, Boulware, Richmond, Stewart, Johnson, Niehaus,Tatum)

TE-5 (Wolf, Johnson, Creamer, Brooks, Pope)

DL-14 (O'brien, Lewis, Vereen, Vickers, Barnett, Mixon, Johnson, Kongbo, Phillips, Tuttle, McKenzie, Picou, Taylor, Butcher)

LB-11 (Bynum, JRM, Berry, McDowell, Bates, Bryant, Kirkland, Smith, Sapp, Bituli,Blakely)

DB-15-(Sutton, Foreman, Berry, Kelly, Moseley, Martin, Henderson, Gaulden, Griffin, Abernathy, Miller, Osbourne, Buchanon, Byrd, Warrior)

SP-4 (Townsend,Daniel, Lovingood, Medley)
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Good stuff. Like the depth at OL and DB. This recruiting class did well to stock up on depth for most positions.
 
#1,438
#1,438
Volnukem said:
Just an update post-signing day.

Total Scholarship players:85
By Position (Bolded are graduating or likely entering draft next year)
QB- 4 (Dobbs, Dormady, Jones, Guarantano)

RB-5 (Hurd, Kamara, Kelly, Young, Fils-aime)

WR-12 (Blanc, Croom, Smith, George, Malone, Jennings, Williams, Perry, Johnson, Henderson, Callaway, Williams)

OL-15 (Wiesman, Sanders, Kendrick, Thomas, Robertson, Raulerson, Mosely, Jones, Hall, Boulware, Richmond, Stewart, Johnson, Niehaus,Tatum)

TE-5 (Wolf, Johnson, Creamer, Brooks, Pope)

DL-14 (O'brien, Lewis, Vereen, Vickers, Barnett, Mixon, Johnson, Kongbo, Phillips, Tuttle, McKenzie, Picou, Taylor, Butcher)

LB-11 (Bynum, JRM, Berry, McDowell, Bates, Bryant, Kirkland, Smith, Sapp, Bituli,Blakely)

DB-15-(Sutton, Foreman, Berry, Kelly, Moseley, Martin, Henderson, Gaulden, Griffin, Abernathy, Miller, Osbourne, Buchanon, Byrd, Warrior)

SP-4 (Townsend,Daniel, Lovingood, Medley)
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Looks good. Obviously still some position changes that may occur if not already (Croom, Jennings, A.Smith), but looks like the right 85. I have 86 including Stocstill, since he got a scholarship this season, but if nobody else leaves from Team120, then Stocstill will probably become a walk-on again.
 
#1,441
#1,441
I take it we got our 21 with no blue shirts correct? So we should have 25 initial counter spots available for the 2017 class assuming we are able to have 25 available scholly's under 85?
 
#1,442
#1,442
Ericvol2096 said:
I take it we got our 21 with no blue shirts correct? So we should have 25 initial counter spots available for the 2017 class assuming we are able to have 25 available scholly's under 85?
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That's my understanding. Will have some serious attrition before the start of 2017 season in order to get 25 signees and still under the 85 limit.
 
#1,443
#1,443
Volnukem said:
Just an update post-signing day.

Total Scholarship players:85
By Position (Bolded are graduating or likely entering draft next year)
QB- 4 (Dobbs, Dormady, Jones, Guarantano)

RB-5 (Hurd, Kamara, Kelly, Young, Fils-aime)

WR-12 (Blanc, Croom, Smith, George, Malone, Jennings, Williams, Perry, Johnson, Henderson, Callaway, Williams)

OL-15 (Wiesman, Sanders, Kendrick, Thomas, Robertson, Raulerson, Mosely, Jones, Hall, Boulware, Richmond, Stewart, Johnson, Niehaus,Tatum)

TE-5 (Wolf, Johnson, Creamer, Brooks, Pope)

DL-14 (O'brien, Lewis, Vereen, Vickers, Barnett, Mixon, Johnson, Kongbo, Phillips, Tuttle, McKenzie, Picou, Taylor, Butcher)

LB-11 (Bynum, JRM, Berry, McDowell, Bates, Bryant, Kirkland, Smith, Sapp, Bituli,Blakely)

DB-15-(Sutton, Foreman, Berry, Kelly, Moseley, Martin, Henderson, Gaulden, Griffin, Abernathy, Miller, Osbourne, Buchanon, Byrd, Warrior)

SP-4 (Townsend,Daniel, Lovingood, Medley)
Click to expand...

:good!:
 
#1,444
#1,444
RockyTopInBham said:
That's my understanding. Will have some serious attrition before the start of 2017 season in order to get 25 signees and still under the 85 limit.
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I'm thinking 2017 may be another smaller class. Here's why.

We only have 12 scholarship seniors (13 if you count Stocstill, but I don't think he's on scholarship anymore if he ever was). I'm guessing Hurd, Kamara, and Barnett all go pro early. There could be a couple of others who blow up and decide to go early (or who go early without blowing up like Sentimore, North, and Rogan have done in recent years). That would give us around 15-17 scholarships to offer.

My admittedly somewhat arbitrary guess is that we we see an additional 5-8 transfers in the next year, meaning we would probably take another class in the low 20s in 2017. It actually makes sense to do this IMO because it would allow us to count a couple of guys back and take a larger class in 2018 when we should have a massive group of seniors to replace as the players from the 2014 class exhaust their eligibility and the class of '15 guys (McKenzie, Tuttle, Phillips, P. Williams) become draft eligible.

Just my theory at this point.
 
#1,445
#1,445
highspeed said:
I'm thinking 2017 may be another smaller class. Here's why.

We only have 12 scholarship seniors (13 if you count Stocstill, but I don't think he's on scholarship anymore if he ever was). I'm guessing Hurd, Kamara, and Barnett all go pro early. There could be a couple of others who blow up and decide to go early (or who go early without blowing up like Sentimore, North, and Rogan have done in recent years). That would give us around 15-17 scholarships to offer.

My admittedly somewhat arbitrary guess is that we we see an additional 5-8 transfers in the next year, meaning we would probably take another class in the low 20s in 2017. It actually makes sense to do this IMO because it would allow us to count a couple of guys back and take a larger class in 2018 when we should have a massive group of seniors to replace as the players from the 2014 class exhaust their eligibility and the class of '15 guys (McKenzie, Tuttle, Phillips, P. Williams) become draft eligible.

Just my theory at this point.
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It's not a bad theory at all. I'll just make a counterpoint for conversation's sake-

Tennessee lives up to expectations in the 2016 season, gets tons of national publicity, and makes a run at the playoff. After the best season in years and years, there is a ton of elite high school talent that wants to be a part of what they see as something special. With a loaded in-state class, plus interest from some of the best players in the class in coming to UT, I think this staff is banking on putting together an elite recruiting class, and want to take in as many of these elite players as possible.

If you think about Saban's classes at Bama, he's not taken less than 24 commits since he got there. I think we'll start to see full or very-close-to full classes from here on out. We saw 30+ in '14 and '15 due to how poor our depth was. Now that it's where it should be, JMO, but I think it levels out to around 25 each year from here on out.
 
#1,446
#1,446
Volnukem said:
Just an update post-signing day.

Total Scholarship players:85
By Position (Bolded are graduating or likely entering draft next year)
QB- 4 (Dobbs, Dormady, Jones, Guarantano)

RB-5 (Hurd, Kamara, Kelly, Young, Fils-aime)

WR-12 (Blanc, Croom, Smith, George, Malone, Jennings, Williams, Perry, Johnson, Henderson, Callaway, Williams)

OL-15 (Wiesman, Sanders, Kendrick, Thomas, Robertson, Raulerson, Mosely, Jones, Hall, Boulware, Richmond, Stewart, Johnson, Niehaus,Tatum)

TE-5 (Wolf, Johnson, Creamer, Brooks, Pope)

DL-14 (O'brien, Lewis, Vereen, Vickers, Barnett, Mixon, Johnson, Kongbo, Phillips, Tuttle, McKenzie, Picou, Taylor, Butcher)

LB-11 (Bynum, JRM, Berry, McDowell, Bates, Bryant, Kirkland, Smith, Sapp, Bituli,Blakely)

DB-15-(Sutton, Foreman, Berry, Kelly, Moseley, Martin, Henderson, Gaulden, Griffin, Abernathy, Miller, Osbourne, Buchanon, Byrd, Warrior)

SP-4 (Townsend,Daniel, Lovingood, Medley)
Click to expand...

Can probably highlight Young's name. Doesn't sound like he is going to play again
 
#1,448
#1,448
We can start optimizing the roster this year. If we can get the players we want, I think we'll take 25-27 next class. There's so much elite talent in TN and VA, and we'll have to replace starters at key positions. We won't have any carry-forwards to reconcile and we can plan ahead for grayshirts and blueshirts to count against 2018. We'll probably take some projects to RS, too, so I think we'll max out spots.
 
#1,449
#1,449
RockyTopInBham said:
It's not a bad theory at all. I'll just make a counterpoint for conversation's sake-

Tennessee lives up to expectations in the 2016 season, gets tons of national publicity, and makes a run at the playoff. After the best season in years and years, there is a ton of elite high school talent that wants to be a part of what they see as something special. With a loaded in-state class, plus interest from some of the best players in the class in coming to UT, I think this staff is banking on putting together an elite recruiting class, and want to take in as many of these elite players as possible.

If you think about Saban's classes at Bama, he's not taken less than 24 commits since he got there. I think we'll start to see full or very-close-to full classes from here on out. We saw 30+ in '14 and '15 due to how poor our depth was. Now that it's where it should be, JMO, but I think it levels out to around 25 each year from here on out.
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That makes sense as well. Ideally, I'm sure the staff would like to get to a point where they take about the same number each year and avoid massive amounts of turnover in any given year. That would give us more continuity and would probably lead to more consistency in performance (and we all know how Butch feels about consistency in performance).
 
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