The Numbers Thread

[LT21]

We have 26 signed now, and I'm sure Ignont will make that 27. Princeton Fant would make that 28. How are we going to sign that many without counting back or blue shirting anyone?

 

[RockyTopInBham]

I still think we had 3 blueshirts today, likely Fant, Cimaglia, and Calbert. I think there may have been a few that just signed something ceremonial, not necessarily a NLI.

 

[Volnukem]

I still think we had 3 blueshirts today, likely Fant, Cimaglia, and Calbert. I think there may have been a few that just signed something ceremonial, not necessarily a NLI.

Agreed, I know Kristy* disagrees, but it looks like at least one of Calbert and Cimaglia has to blueshirt/greyshirt. If both of them show up in the summer, then we know it was a blueshirt.

 

[Kristy*]

We have 26 signed now, and I'm sure Ignont will make that 27. Princeton Fant would make that 28. How are we going to sign that many without counting back or blue shirting anyone?

I think we had room for 26. We signed 27 (Fant BS), so the kicker will have to grey-shirt if everyone qualifies. If anyone fails to qualify, the kicker could take his spot. All JMO. I don't see around the loophole that a BS can't be announced. But a GS can.

 

[Volnukem]

I think we had room for 26. We signed 27 (Fant BS), so the kicker will have to grey-shirt if everyone qualifies. If anyone fails to qualify, the kicker could take his spot. All JMO. I don't see around the loophole that a BS can't be announced. But a GS can.

How do you reconcile them announcing PWO like Seth Washington?

 

[Kristy*]

How do you reconcile them announcing PWO like Seth Washington?

They aren't recruited and aren't going to sign a NLI in the future. Different situation.

 

[InVOLuntary]

I think we had room for 26. We signed 27 (Fant BS), so the kicker will have to grey-shirt if everyone qualifies. If anyone fails to qualify, the kicker could take his spot. All JMO. I don't see around the loophole that a BS can't be announced. But a GS can.

If we sign someone and they fail to qualify you don't get that spot back when it comes to the 25 (or 26). They obviously don't count against the 85 but you lose the LOI. At least that's how I understand it. That's why coaches are so cautious about signing academic risk.

 

[Kristy*]

If we sign someone and they fail to qualify you don't get that spot back when it comes to the 25 (or 26). They obviously don't count against the 85 but you lose the LOI. At least that's how I understand it. That's why coaches are so cautious about signing academic risk.

Well, yes and no. There are 2 different 25 caps. One is LOI, and that limit is 25 signed between Dec 1st and May 31st. There is only back-counting with that rule.

The 2nd rule is IC. To be an IC, you have to enroll in classes and receive financial aid. So, guys that don't qualify actually don't hurt you there.

Henderson and Stewart are 2 who signed LOIs, who wouldn't have been ICs. And guys like McDaniel and Lewis (last year) are guys that would have been ICs, who didn't count against the LOI limit, because of when they signed. Bruce wouldn't have counted against either number.

 

[InVOLuntary]

Well, yes and no. There are 2 different 25 caps. One is LOI, and that limit is 25 signed between Dec 1st and May 31st. There is only back-counting with that rule.

The 2nd rule is IC. To be an IC, you have to enroll in classes and receive financial aid. So, guys that don't qualify actually don't hurt you there.

Henderson and Stewart are 2 who signed LOIs, who wouldn't have been ICs. And guys like McDaniel and Lewis (last year) are guys that would have been ICs, who didn't count against the LOI limit, because of when they signed. Bruce wouldn't have counted against either number.

Yes, but my point is if we lose anyone that signed a LOI to not qualifying, we can't all of a sudden get those back and back count those next year. So let's say we lose Murphy for an example, say he doesn't qualify. Say we have two blue shirts in this class and one gray shirt. Assuming we used all the LOIs in our coffers this year. We would get 25 LOIs next year, minus the two blue shirts and the one gray shirt, means we can sign only 22 LOIs next year. We don't get to back count Murphy's even though he didn't get in and got financial Aid. That's the way I understand it.

 

[Kristy*]

Yes, but my point is if we lose anyone that signed a LOI to not qualifying, we can't all of a sudden get those back and back count those next year. So let's say we lose Murphy for an example, say he doesn't qualify. Say we have two blue shirts in this class and one gray shirt. Assuming we used all the LOIs in our coffers this year. We would get 25 LOIs next year, minus the two blue shirts and the one gray shirt, means we can sign only 22 LOIs next year. We don't get to back count Murphy's even though he didn't get in and got financial Aid. That's the way I understand it.

There are no Blue Shirts in the LOI limit. That's why I said only backcounting there. And, we're pretty good at that number anyway since our guys that sign during the summer and our BS don't count against that limit. But yes, we don't get that spot back. But he wouldn't count as an Initial Counter. And that's the number that is tight. That's the number that's forced us to forward count.

 

[Mick]

I think we had room for 26. We signed 27 (Fant BS), so the kicker will have to grey-shirt if everyone qualifies. If anyone fails to qualify, the kicker could take his spot. All JMO. I don't see around the loophole that a BS can't be announced. But a GS can.

Since Butcher is medically exempt does that mean that his scholarship is freed up for football and we are at the 85 number now or do we still need to make room?

 

[Volnukem]

Since Butcher is medically exempt does that mean that his scholarship is freed up for football and we are at the 85 number now or do we still need to make room?

We are at 89 scholarship players right now.

 

[Mick]

We are at 89 scholarship players right now.

I was hearing we needed to free up 2 spots to accommodate this class. Faint did not sign and Butcher is no longer counted. Are you suggesting we need to free up 4 more spots before fall camp? Just curious. Thanks

 

[Kristy*]

I was hearing we needed to free up 2 spots to accommodate this class. Faint did not sign and Butcher is no longer counted. Are you suggesting we need to free up 4 more spots before fall camp? Just curious. Thanks

I've got us at 87 now without Butcher. We'll have to free up 3 more spots though, as Fant is expected to sign in the fall. His initial counter spot will count forward, but he would still count against the 85 limit. My number does not include Jumper on scholarship either, as walk-ons are awarded scholarships on a yearly basis. We would have to lose more than 3 for his to be renewed. If the kicker grey-shirts, then that would free up a number as he would not count against the 85 limit.

 

[Mick]

I've got us at 87 now without Butcher. We'll have to free up 3 more spots though, as Fant is expected to sign in the fall. His initial counter spot will count forward, but he would still count against the 85 limit. My number does not include Jumper on scholarship either, as walk-ons are awarded scholarships on a yearly basis. We would have to lose more than 3 for his to be renewed. If the kicker grey-shirts, then that would free up a number as he would not count against the 85 limit.

2 or 3 to attrition and we are good. That seems easy for CBJ.

 

[RockyTopInBham]

Figured I'd bump this since it hasn't been updated after NSD 2016.

Just thought I'd post an updated Post-NSD scholarship roster breakdown (from the list I have):


CURRENT TOTAL: 89

QB (4)- Dormady, Jones, Guarantano, McBride

RB (5)- Kelly, Fils-Aime, Chandler, Jordan, Coleman

OL (14)- Kendrick, Thomas, Robertson, Jones, Hall, Boulware, Richmond, Tatum, R.Johnson, Niehaus, Brooks, T.Smith, Locklear, Calbert

WR (11)- J.Smith, George, Jennings, B.Johnson, Callaway, L.Williams, Byrd, J.Jones, Murphy, Palmer, Fant

TE (5)- Et.Wolf, J.Johnson, Pope, Brown, Bumphus

DE (9)- Mixon, Kongbo, Phillips, A.Smith, Taylor, McDaniel, D.Johnson, Bembry, Thaxton

DT (9)- Vickers, A.Johnson, Mosley, McKenzie, Tuttle, Picou, Crosby, Bennett, Butler

LB (12)- McDowell, Jumper, El.Berry, Bates, Bryant, Kirkland, Sapp, Bituli, Blakely, Reid, Page, Ignont

CB (9)- Martin, Moseley, Henderson, Gaulden, Osborne, Buchanan, Labruzza, Bailey, Shamburger

S (7)- TKJr, Ev.Berry, Abernathy, Griffin, Warrior, Gray, T.Jackson

S/T (4)- Medley, Daniel, Lovingood, Cimaglia


FTR, I did not include Austin Sanders, who is still on the official roster but graduated and participated in Senior Day last fall.

 

[Volnukem]

Figured I'd bump this since it hasn't been updated after NSD 2016.

Just thought I'd post an updated Post-NSD scholarship roster breakdown (from the list I have):


CURRENT TOTAL: 89

QB (4)- Dormady, Jones, Guarantano, McBride

RB (5)- Kelly, Fils-Aime, Chandler, Jordan, Coleman

OL (14)- Kendrick, Thomas, Robertson, Jones, Hall, Boulware, Richmond, Tatum, R.Johnson, Niehaus, Brooks, T.Smith, Locklear, Calbert

WR (11)- J.Smith, George, Jennings, B.Johnson, Callaway, L.Williams, Byrd, J.Jones, Murphy, Palmer, Fant

TE (5)- Et.Wolf, J.Johnson, Pope, Brown, Bumphus

DE (9)- Mixon, Kongbo, Phillips, A.Smith, Taylor, McDaniel, D.Johnson, Bembry, Thaxton

DT (9)- Vickers, A.Johnson, Mosley, McKenzie, Tuttle, Picou, Crosby, Bennett, Butler

LB (12)- McDowell, Jumper, El.Berry, Bates, Bryant, Kirkland, Sapp, Bituli, Blakely, Reid, Page, Ignont

CB (9)- Martin, Moseley, Henderson, Gaulden, Osborne, Buchanan, Labruzza, Bailey, Shamburger

S (7)- TKJr, Ev.Berry, Abernathy, Griffin, Warrior, Gray, T.Jackson

S/T (4)- Medley, Daniel, Lovingood, Cimaglia


FTR, I did not include Austin Sanders, who is still on the official roster but graduated and participated in Senior Day last fall.

This is what I have as well, but I also agree with Kristy*. I am counting Jumper, Fant, and Cimaglia. If we get to Fall Camp with more than 85 we know that Jumper's scholarship wasn't renewed and Cimaglia is a grey shirt (which will be evident if he isn't on campus).

 

[RockyTopInBham]

I get the whole walk-on, year-to-year scholarship idea, and JMO, but I just don't see any way Jumper isn't on scholarship next season. Like him or not, these coaches trust this dude over most of our scholarship linebackers. I think it's much more likely we see more attrition than Jumper losing his scholarship. Again, JMO.

 

[Kristy*]

I get the whole walk-on, year-to-year scholarship idea, and JMO, but I just don't see any way Jumper isn't on scholarship next season. Like him or not, these coaches trust this dude over most of our scholarship linebackers. I think it's much more likely we see more attrition than Jumper losing his scholarship. Again, JMO.

IMO, Jumper is not a scholarship-type player. If we're relying on him heavily again this year, then our LB corp just isn't where it needs to be. I understand why he earned a scholarship, and he deserved one for the effort he gave and for his improvement, honestly. But, if the spot is needed, I don't see how they would push a recruited, more talented, scholarship guy out to keep Jumper on. That's just not the way it works.

Now, if the attrition happens naturally (and it probably will), he'll be put back on without hesitation.

 

[Volnukem]

I guess this is as good of a place as any to put this. I have been tracking the roster composition since 2013 and I have a few summary tables that I like to refer to. I figured I might as well share with those that care. Most of these should be obvious. The Yearly adjusted 247 composite ratings is just an arbitrary 2% increase I apply to each player based on the number of years they are in the program to add a weight for experience. Also, the little blue lines are trend lines for the row to their left.

Let me know what you are think. I could use any advice on making the data easier to read.

 

[RockyTopInBham]

IMO, Jumper is not a scholarship-type player. If we're relying on him heavily again this year, then our LB corp just isn't where it needs to be. I understand why he earned a scholarship, and he deserved one for the effort he gave and for his improvement, honestly. But, if the spot is needed, I don't see how they would push a recruited, more talented, scholarship guy out to keep Jumper on. That's just not the way it works.

Now, if the attrition happens naturally (and it probably will), he'll be put back on without hesitation.

I'm not even really arguing whether or not he is that quality of player, because it's certainly debatable. I just think it's Butch's MO to reward walk-on guys that fight for their chance, and Jumper did that.

If the numbers get tight, I think we see someone else go. At 89 currently, I would not be surprised at all to see one or two of the possibly 20 guys on the DL leave. I think we all expect at least one of the QB's to transfer at some point. Adding in the fact that there's almost always a surprise transfer or two each offseason, and I don't think we'll be too worried about getting under 85 come fall camp. JMO.

 

[RockyTopInBham]

Time for a numbers bump . Saw Volnukem post about the 2018 signee limit question for the Vols in the Who's Next Thread, but I figured I'd try to keep the discussions separate. I figure we'll have P.Fant counting towards the 2018 class, not sure if any others will. So I'd guess we take 24 (unless, of course, Butch convinces one of the current or future commits to Blueshirt, giving us more potential additions to the class). One other note I found interesting was in the Chatman thread when discussing his Fit with the Vols, VQ mentioned that the Vols are looking to add 6 DL this class.

But just guessing on the 24 limit, I'd say for this class we'll have:
QB - 2 (Martinez, Penix)
RB - 2 (Dixon, Grant)
WR - 3 (Taylor, Harris, ?)
TE - 2 (Warren, ?)
OL - 3 (Mays, Lane, ?)

DT - 3 (Lawless, Litaker, Chatman)
DE - 3 (?, ?, ?)
LB - 1 (?)
CB - 2 (Cross, ?)
S - 2 (Harris, Ingle)

P - 1 (?)

 

[Tuckervol1003]

Time for a numbers bump . Saw Volnukem post about the 2018 signee limit question for the Vols in the Who's Next Thread, but I figured I'd try to keep the discussions separate. I figure we'll have P.Fant counting towards the 2018 class, not sure if any others will. So I'd guess we take 24 (unless, of course, Butch convinces one of the current or future commits to Blueshirt, giving us more potential additions to the class). One other note I found interesting was in the Chatman thread when discussing his Fit with the Vols, VQ mentioned that the Vols are looking to add 6 DL this class.

But just guessing on the 24 limit, I'd say for this class we'll have:
QB - 2 (Martinez, Penix)
RB - 2 (Dixon, Grant)
WR - 3 (Taylor, Harris, ?)
TE - 2 (Warren, ?)
OL - 3 (Mays, Lane, ?)

DT - 3 (Lawless, Litaker, Chatman)
DE - 3 (?, ?, ?)
LB - 1 (?)
CB - 2 (Cross, ?)
S - 2 (Harris, Ingle)

P - 1 (?)

I see us going to the full 25. I also do not see us using a scholarship for a punter, unless he is very special. I see us adding 2 Linebackers also.

 

[Volnukem]

Time for a numbers bump . Saw Volnukem post about the 2018 signee limit question for the Vols in the Who's Next Thread, but I figured I'd try to keep the discussions separate. I figure we'll have P.Fant counting towards the 2018 class, not sure if any others will. So I'd guess we take 24 (unless, of course, Butch convinces one of the current or future commits to Blueshirt, giving us more potential additions to the class). One other note I found interesting was in the Chatman thread when discussing his Fit with the Vols, VQ mentioned that the Vols are looking to add 6 DL this class.

But just guessing on the 24 limit, I'd say for this class we'll have:
QB - 2 (Martinez, Penix)
RB - 2 (Dixon, Grant)
WR - 3 (Taylor, Harris, ?)
TE - 2 (Warren, ?)
OL - 3 (Mays, Lane, ?)

DT - 3 (Lawless, Litaker, Chatman)
DE - 3 (?, ?, ?)
LB - 1 (?)
CB - 2 (Cross, ?)
S - 2 (Harris, Ingle)

P - 1 (?)

Good call and good list. I thought that blue and grey shirting were no longer allowed giving a hard 25 cap.

 

[UTMVol76]

I cringe every time this thread is bumped. Its like saying Beetljuice 3x and summoning "he who we shall not name".