The Official “Regular Posters of the Basketball Forum” Thread

[bleedingTNorange]

Nothing you are saying here is wrong or anything @BernardKingGOAT said is wrong.

My perspective is just a little nuanced. I view things as a series of probabilities (which is why you never find me being emotional or reactionary).

But the TLDR is that next year has a lot of things needed to work in our favor to be FF good again. and these things aren’t guaranteed and they have probabilities to happen or not.

I don’t know if anyone cares to go deep into it. But a way to kinda understand my view is to look at this year and last year and a single variable that greatly determines the outcomes of our seasons.

Lanier and Knecht.

IMO we aren’t FF good this year or last year without them. Them being recruited and being healthy enabled that. That is an example of a single variable that had a probability attached to it that causes a huge swing in outcomes.

Now yes, it’s possible we don’t hit on those guys, maybe we hit on someone else or a player emerges with the opportunity already on the roster etc.. those are all factors I try to consider in my thinking too.

So next year, things we can kinda count on is we will have a good frontcourt (if everybody stays, which is again, another variable)

Outside of that, there is a chance Barnes won’t be here next year. We basically have to reload an entire backcourt.

Those are two enormous variables.

Barnes is capable. If someone can do it, by god it’d be him. But i find it hard to see it as probable we will be FF good

I get all that and nothing you’ve said is wrong, or improbable, as I said my take is that for 7 straight years we’ll have produced a team that, at least by my definition, has a punchers chance at a F4. I don’t necessarily expect a Top 5 team, but another Top 15-20 team means another top 3-4 seed in the NCAAT which means you’ve got a pretty solid chance comparatively speaking to go on a run in the dance.

If Barnes retires then yea, all bets are off, but if he’s back then I don’t take him or Spyre as a group willing to just trot out a bubble team…they’ll both do everything in their power to once again field a competitive roster.

 

[chuckiepoo]

Thought we’d jump higher in AdjO than we did when you consider we put up 77 on the #6 defense. But we only moved up 4 spots.

I will admit it was a very good offensive performance in spurts. I was frustrated with the offense for a lot of the game because it felt like Lanier was the only one that showed up, but they righted the ship and played really nice ball down the stretch.

Maybe I’m harder on this particular team than I should be, it’s a major miracle this team is 22-5 with how many players we lost. But it’s also probably because I know Barnes doesn’t have many years left, we lose a ton of production from this team as well, and the opportunity for a Final Four is closing.

Same was said last year…

 

[omghulkhands]

who had a better recruiting class than us this year?

Duke I’ll give you.

Are we #2?

UK was pretty good. Larger class so arguably better.

Due to the portal I don’t think you can score classes on how good they’ll be in the future. It’s kind of a year to to year thing now.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

who had a better recruiting class than us this year?

Duke I’ll give you.

Are we #2?

UK was pretty good. Larger class so arguably better.

Due to the portal I don’t think you can score classes on how good they’ll be in the future. It’s kind of a year to to year thing now.

You talking HS & transfer class together?

 

[omghulkhands]

You talking HS & transfer class together?

Impact for this season. Regardless of HS or Transfer (which is how I think we should really start evaluating these classes imo)

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Impact for this season. Regardless of HS or Transfer (which is how I think we should really start evaluating these classes imo)

Don’t disagree on that last part

 

[cncchris33]

I get all that and nothing you’ve said is wrong, or improbable, as I said my take is that for 7 straight years we’ll have produced a team that, at least by my definition, has a punchers chance at a F4. I don’t necessarily expect a Top 5 team, but another Top 15-20 team means another top 3-4 seed in the NCAAT which means you’ve got a pretty solid chance comparatively speaking to go on a run in the dance.

If Barnes retires then yea, all bets are off, but if he’s back then I don’t take him or Spyre as a group willing to just trot out a bubble team…they’ll both do everything in their power to once again field a competitive roster.

2020 and 2021 teams didn't really have a punchers chance of fighting out of a wet paper sack.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

2020 and 2021 teams didn't really have a punchers chance of fighting out of a wet paper sack.

2021 team was a 5 seed that reached #2 in the AP poll, might not have faired well but as I said already, IMO if you’re a Top 5 seed, thus a Top 20 team, you’re giving yourself a chance.

 

[ndubvols]

Kinda like the 4 guard lineup with mashack at the 4. Today we ran it due to Igor’s foul trouble, but believe we went to it last game as well.

It’s a lineup I thought we’d see more of early in the season, but obviously hard to sit Igor/okpara for extended stretches and is matchup dependent.

Would like to see us continue to go with it in the second half of games to see if it continues to be effective.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Crazy to think that at the end of today, our AdjO on KenPom only jumped 1 spot from 29 to 28 after our performance.

 

[cncchris33]

2021 team was a 5 seed that reached #2 in the AP poll, might not have faired well but as I said already, IMO if you’re a Top 5 seed, thus a Top 20 team, you’re giving yourself a chance.

Well, I guess that's where we differ. Using a rigid system to make that conclusion is fine enough in a vacuum, but watching that team actually play on the court, you just knew they weren't a team that had a chance to do much, and they proved that in losing to Oregon St. They really tailed off thru conference play, finishing the season 8-8 in their final 16 games and unranked at tournament time. I also believe the highest they reached in the AP poll was #6 on January 18th, not #2. It was all downhill from there.

 

[berryvol]

Crazy to think that at the end of today, our AdjO on KenPom only jumped 1 spot from 29 to 28 after our performance.

This is fair, but we are .4 away from being top 24 and 1.1 away from being top 20. For comparison, Vandy (the team behind us) is .4 behind us and the 33rd adjO team (4 behind us) is 1.1 from us. We are closer to being a top 20 offense than we are to the 34th ranked offense. It’s a gridlock in the 20s.

 

[OrangeInKy]

Way to go ESPN. Barn fan yells at ref “you f’g suck” and the mics pick it up.

Probably was Stevie telling it

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Well, I guess that's where we differ. Using a rigid system to make that conclusion is fine enough in a vacuum, but watching that team actually play on the court, you just knew they weren't a team that had a chance to do much, and they proved that in losing to Oregon St. They really tailed off thru conference play, finishing the season 8-8 in their final 16 games and unranked at tournament time. I also believe the highest they reached in the AP poll was #6 on January 18th, not #2. It was all downhill from there.

Agree to disagree

 

[VolCalls]

This is fair, but we are .4 away from being top 24 and 1.1 away from being top 20. For comparison, Vandy (the team behind us) is .4 behind us and the 33rd adjO team (4 behind us) is 1.1 from us. We are closer to being a top 20 offense than we are to the 34th ranked offense. It’s a gridlock in the 20s.

There are also 364 teams in Division 1, and each has played 27-28 games, so you’re talking about a total sample size of over 10,000 games. A team’s performance (good or bad) in one game at this point in the season isn’t really going to move the needle.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

There are also 364 teams in Division 1, and each has played 27-28 games, so you’re talking about a total sample size of over 10,000 games. A team’s performance (good or bad) in one game at this point in the season isn’t really going to move the needle.

More like 5,000 “games”, but each game comes with two sets of performance rankings.

 

[MinisterofDef#92]

Thought we’d jump higher in AdjO than we did when you consider we put up 77 on the #6 defense. But we only moved up 4 spots.

I will admit it was a very good offensive performance in spurts. I was frustrated with the offense for a lot of the game because it felt like Lanier was the only one that showed up, but they righted the ship and played really nice ball down the stretch.

Maybe I’m harder on this particular team than I should be, it’s a major miracle this team is 22-5 with how many players we lost. But it’s also probably because I know Barnes doesn’t have many years left, we lose a ton of production from this team as well, and the opportunity for a Final Four is closing.

While playing in arguably the toughest conference in the history of the NCAA