Yeah, I've had the same thought. Still -- two years is a long time, as far as the attention of the American populace goes, and this is ultimately a sport that nobody gives a crap about. When the Olympics are over, these sports fall farther off the radar than hockey and professional bowling. This year, the whole country is rushing home to watch Phelps swim for gold medals; during the swimming world championships next year, he'll be lucky to get a mention during the Big Finish on PTI. I bet that few than half the people in a bar could tell you who won the Super Bowl two years ago, and that's obviously a sport we care 100 times more about.
The factor which I didn't really consider before making the wager is, of course, commercial endorsements. It really depends on what kind of ads he's doing. All it takes is one really prominent, memorable ad campaign -- the kind that Olympic athletes never get, but which this guy's high profile just might make possible -- and I'm screwed.