The SEC Pecking Order According to Sagarin

#26
#26
sjt18 said:
For those talking Mizzou up... who would you consider their "best win" so far this year? Who have they beaten that just screams, "Wow, they're great?"

Mizzou ALWAYS plays a weak early schedule. Their West rival is Arkansas. There is always a chance for them to make it late in the season with a good record.
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They have a better win than we do. They beat Kansas State. While not a world beater, they are ranked ahead of us right now. Are they great? No. Are they a really solid team who is dangerous? Yes.

In the SEC, we are 4th in total offense, they are 5th. Passing offense they are 3rd we are 9th. Rushing we are #1 they are 7th. Points per game, they are 4th we are 6th.

Defensively, we are 4th and they are 7th on total defense. Pass defense we are 8th and they are 9th. Rush defense we are 3rd and they are 5th. Scoring defense we are 4th and they are 9th.

It’s gonna be a tough game. They have the clear advantage when it comes to QB and WR. We have the rushing and the defensive advantage. Missouri isn’t going to be the usual pushover they typically have been.
 
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#28
#28
BigOrangeTrain said:
They have a better win than we do. They beat Kansas State. While not a world beater, they are ranked ahead of us right now. Are they great? No. Are they a really solid team who is dangerous? Yes.
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Ask and answer this question honestly. Would K-State be 6-2 vs UT's schedule right now? The combined record of the FBS teams they've beaten is 19-21. The only team they've beaten with a winning record is Troy.
BigOrangeTrain said:
In the SEC, we are 4th in total offense, they are 5th. Passing offense they are 3rd we are 9th. Rushing we are #1 they are 7th. Points per game, they are 4th we are 6th.

Defensively, we are 4th and they are 7th on total defense. Pass defense we are 8th and they are 9th. Rush defense we are 3rd and they are 5th. Scoring defense we are 4th and they are 9th.

It’s gonna be a tough game. They have the clear advantage when it comes to QB and WR. We have the rushing and the defensive advantage. Missouri isn’t going to be the usual pushover they typically have been.
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Mizzou is about to be exposed.... again. I live in Missouri. I don't trash talk my neighbors. But this isn't a new dance for them. Those statistics don't mean that much unless you look at competition too.

That said, two things concern me. One is Milton. Until he strings some good games together... he's a worry. If he's a run threat then Mizzou doesn't have an answer. Every decent team they've played has been able to run the ball and Milton's runs keep them honest even if the passing game disappears again.

Two is Banks. Will he overcompensate for their run game to include the QB and let Mizzou have all day to throw against soft coverage? He keeps doing it. It doesn't work. He still keeps doing it.
 
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#29
#29
sjt18 said:
Ask and answer this question honestly. Would K-State be 6-2 vs UT's schedule right now? The combined record of the FBS teams they've beaten is 19-21. The only team they've beaten with a winning record is Troy.

Mizzou is about to be exposed.... again. I live in Missouri. I don't trash talk my neighbors. But this isn't a new dance for them. Those statistics don't mean that much unless you look at competition too.

That said, two things concern me. One is Milton. Until he strings some good games together... he's a worry. If he's a run threat then Mizzou doesn't have an answer. Every decent team they've played has been able to run the ball and Milton's runs keep them honest even if the passing game disappears again.

Two is Banks. Will he overcompensate for their run game to include the QB and let Mizzou have all day to throw against soft coverage? He keeps doing it. It doesn't work. He still keeps doing it.
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Our pass rush didn’t get to the QB enough against Kentucky. I like our chances against Missouri if they bring consistent pressure. If we don’t, expect a shootout type of game. Missouri’s defense doesn’t scare me like their offense.
 
#30
#30
BowlBrother85 said:
We get to play on offense too.

The only analysis of that game that I'm seeing concerns their offense vs our defense. I think that's a little strange considering the fact that we've scored 66 points the last two times we've played them .... and they gave up 49 points to LSU at home earlier this season.

This forum tends to focus only on our weaknesses, and the potentially bad matchups resulting from them. Virtually no time at all is ever spent discussing our opponent's weaknesses and how we can exploit them. I don't think they will be able to stop our ground game.

I suspect that most of the people picking Missouri to win have not actually seen them play. Let's see how well they do this coming Saturday .... I think they get dump trucked.
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Pointing out positives about the Vols is typically met with derision from a handful of posters.

Some people cant help but focus on the negatives.🤷‍♂️
 
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#32
#32
I think we can be physical against Missouri on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They have athletes but can get pushed around. The biggest key is whether our front 4 can disrupt their passing game because last week showed us that our DBs can't cover for long. I think we can get a push on their interior lineman too. We push the pocket in on their QB he may try and escape outside the pocket where Pearce and Baron will be waiting for him. If we can't consistently disrupt their QB, definitely a game we could lose. I'm not sure they can stop our offense but they can generate sacks too so Milton is going to need to get the ball out quickly. Body blow them with our rushing attack, quick slants or outs and just move those sticks.
 
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#33
#33
sjt18 said:
Ask and answer this question honestly. Would K-State be 6-2 vs UT's schedule right now? The combined record of the FBS teams they've beaten is 19-21. The only team they've beaten with a winning record is Troy.

Mizzou is about to be exposed.... again. I live in Missouri. I don't trash talk my neighbors. But this isn't a new dance for them. Those statistics don't mean that much unless you look at competition too.

That said, two things concern me. One is Milton. Until he strings some good games together... he's a worry. If he's a run threat then Mizzou doesn't have an answer. Every decent team they've played has been able to run the ball and Milton's runs keep them honest even if the passing game disappears again.

Two is Banks. Will he overcompensate for their run game to include the QB and let Mizzou have all day to throw against soft coverage? He keeps doing it. It doesn't work. He still keeps doing it.
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Milton played good against Bama and UK. I am not that worried about him. Now our defense? The secondary? That’s the biggest problem area. I am telling you Missouri is not a pushover. Yes we have demolished them the past two years but they are a solid team that can easily beat us.
 
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#36
#36
DiderotsGhost said:
Here are the latest Sagarin ratings and Sagarin's implied betting lines on a neutral field vs us:

3. Alabama (+7)
4. Georgia (+7)
11. LSU (+3.5)
13. Ole Miss (even)
14. Tennessee

16. Texas A&M (-1)
31. Mizzou (-7)
33. Auburn (-8)
38. Arkansas (-8.5)
42. Florida (-10)

43. Kentucky (-10.5)
47. South Carolina (-11)
56. Miss State (-12.5)
112. Vanderbilt (-25.5)
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I don't see Arkansas beating kentucky
 
#37
#37
VolinMichigan said:
Burden is light years ahead of anybody on UKs roster. They have an underrated run game and Brady Cook might be having the best season of any QB in the SEC. They’ll be a challenge for us. More so than UK.
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Kentucky has a better O Line than Missouri. GBO
 
#39
#39
BigOrangeTrain said:
Milton played good against Bama and UK. I am not that worried about him. Now our defense? The secondary? That’s the biggest problem area. I am telling you Missouri is not a pushover. Yes we have demolished them the past two years but they are a solid team that can easily beat us.
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I invite you to go back to the last two years' threads before the Mizzou game. They should not beat UT. Can they? Yes. "Easily"? Not a chance.
 
#40
#40
Cook is completing 68% of his passes vs P5 opponents, Joe is at 66%. If you take out Vandy for Cook and UVA for Joe, who both barely qualify as P5, Cook is completing 64% of his passes vs P5 competition and Joe is completing 65%. Against common opponents (SCar and UK) Joe completed 74% of his passes for 467 yards, Cook completed 63% of his passes for 380 yards. I’m clueless as to where this narrative comes from that he’s a stud. He’s yet to play a defense comparable to AM let alone Bama; he’s made a living feasting off of weak competition.
 
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#41
#41
DaddyChad said:
I mean they lost to LSU but it was a good game. Beat KSU, Kentucky and embarrassed Carolina. Idk that they’re a “great” team. I just worry about that matchup. Cook is pretty good and our secondary hasn’t been. Imo it’s a bad matchup for us on the road.
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They also came very close to losing at home to Middle Tennessee. Nobody has mentioned that game. I watched it, and they looked like $hit ... and will someone please explain why playing Missouri on the road is such a big deal? I mean, we did beat them 66-21 two years ago. That is not a typical SEC atmosphere.
 
#43
#43
BowlBrother85 said:
They also came very close to losing at home to Middle Tennessee. Nobody has mentioned that game. I watched it, and they looked like $hit ... and will someone please explain why playing Missouri on the road is such a big deal? I mean, we did beat them 66-21 two years ago. That is not a typical SEC atmosphere.
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This team has struggled on the road
 
#45
#45
AthensVol2007 said:
Cook is completing 68% of his passes vs P5 opponents, Joe is at 66%. If you take out Vandy for Cook and UVA for Joe, who both barely qualify as P5, Cook is completing 64% of his passes vs P5 competition and Joe is completing 65%. Against common opponents (SCar and UK) Joe completed 74% of his passes for 467 yards, Cook completed 63% of his passes for 380 yards. I’m clueless as to where this narrative comes from that he’s a stud. He’s yet to play a defense comparable to AM let alone Bama; he’s made a living feasting off of weak competition.
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Agree to a point but I also really like Cook and wish the Vols had him. IMO, his greatest asset is his ability to break the pocket and run. He's a better runner than Milton and very comparable to Hooker. UT has to pressure him. But they also have to spy him to keep contain. He has some skills that make it hard on you.

I don't think they'll run the ball well against UT unless Cook breaks off some runs. That's great as long as Banks doesn't overreact to Mizzou's run game like he did UK's.. The Vols MUST play tighter coverage than they did vs Leary.

I truly hope that Joe turned the corner... but right now that's just hope.
 
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#46
#46
VolinMichigan said:
Burden is light years ahead of anybody on UKs roster. They have an underrated run game and Brady Cook might be having the best season of any QB in the SEC. They’ll be a challenge for us. More so than UK.
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Burden is a very good player. UK held him to 2 catches for 15 yds. You can make a good case that UK is the only credible D Mizzou has faced all year.

This same conversation has happened before both of the last two games. This is a better Mizzou team but they are still less talented than UT. Drink still isn't as good as Heupel.
 
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#47
#47
DaddyChad said:
This team has struggled on the road
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There isn't much sample size. What you're really saying is ... they struggled at Florida.

The 1st half against Alabama is the best we've looked all season .... as far as the 2nd half is concerned? That's a different animal than playing in Columbia, Missouri.
 
#50
#50
rgvol said:
Unfortunately I don't believe anyone is beating UGA
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Think only one with the deep Jimmy and Joes to give honest 50-50 chance is Ohio State. However. an early start with turnover and few scores could ignite an upset in Neyland
 
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