The SEC v. Recruiting Averages

#26
#26
Sheik Yerbouti said:
I always enjoy your analysis; thank you for posting.

Two slight quibbles.

First, it's hard for me to count this evidence as "definitive proof." I'd say, "the evidence so far supports the conclusion that our head coach has the team on track," or something like that.

Second, from a readability standpoint, I'd like to see these charts reorganized in descending order of talent from left to right, rather than in alphabetical order. Seeing the yellow talent line step down from left to right may make the chart a bit more intuitive to understand. I recognize, of course, that this would require you to do some potentially annoying cut-and-paste work. I'd just like to see it the other way.

Cheers! Nice work. :peace2:
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Mitch Hedberg had a great quote that might apply here: "An escalator can never break: it can only become stairs. You should never see an Escalator Temporarily Out Of Order sign, just Escalator Temporarily Stairs. Sorry for the convenience."

That dude was funny, may he rest in peace.

As far as the other quibble about "definitive" proof...that might seem a bit much. When taken into context and over his history, Jones has pretty definitive proof that he can not only perform to talent levels, but can increase those levels with recruiting, then over-perform. I know that many had this assumption that doing that in the SEC would be a huge leap from the Big East, but that is a fundamental trait of his and it is definitive. Will it continue to hold true? Evidence so far suggests so. It is like this: I have definitive proof based on history that the sun will rise tomorrow. That won't be true every day, but until it isn't true, it is. ;)

I always appreciate your comments and enjoy our banter.
 
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#27
#27
daj2576 said:
Butch inherited a team with solid talent, contrary to what many people want to believe after seeing Dooley handle the team for three years. At Cincy, Butch was driving something closer to a Dart.

The talent on this team is capable of predicting a 7-5 finish and predicted a win over SCAR. If that is a Dart, then so be it. I am not overly attached to that metaphor.
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Had they of won the GA game like they should have there would be a great chance for 7-5 MAYBE even 8-4. Truth is there was always some talent. It was just undeveloped for the most part. That's why you will see UT get better and better each week. Spells good news for the coming weeks.
 
#28
#28
RiseToTheTop said:
Had they of won the GA game like they should have there would be a great chance for 7-5 MAYBE even 8-4. Truth is there was always some talent. It was just undeveloped for the most part. That's why you will see UT get better and better each week. Spells good news for the coming weeks.
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Had we beat UGA, we would be on track for 8-4.

As it stands right now, there is no explanation for anything less than a win against Vandy and Kentucky. That is 6-6.

I still believe Jones will get UT to 7-5, based on talent and barring catastrophe. Mizzou is primed for a huge let down, and they aren't that talented regardless of how they beat a decimated UGA team and a UF team that should probably get Muschamp fired.

I will go on record saying that I firmly believe that SCAR beats Mizzou this weekend and we begin to see Mizzou slide. Remember their first 4 games were against teams who were all worse than Kentucky from a talent stand point.
 
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#29
#29
So the model predicts losses to Bama and Auburn but wins over Mizzou, Vandy, and UK to land at 7-5. I was called all sorts of names for suggesting this was a 7 win roster.

At the same time, I think Auburn is a more winnable game than the model suggests and especially at home.
 
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#30
#30
sjt18 said:
So the model predicts losses to Bama and Auburn but wins over Mizzou, Vandy, and UK to land at 7-5. I was called all sorts of names for suggesting this was a 7 win roster.

At the same time, I think Auburn is a more winnable game than the model suggests and especially at home.
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I tend to agree that Auburn is winnable at home. In fact, there is a part of me that sees a loss to Mizzou but a win over Auburn. Either way, 7-5 is what we should expect.
 
#31
#31
daj2576 said:
I still believe Jones will get UT to 7-5, based on talent and barring catastrophe. Mizzou is primed for a huge let down, and they aren't that talented regardless of how they beat a decimated UGA team and a UF team that should probably get Muschamp fired.
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I keep trying to tell people that Mizzou is one of the least talented teams in the SEC. They've lived a charmed life this season and played a weak schedule in part due to the personnel losses UGA and UF have had.

They do have a very good system though which makes them dangerous.

PS- I hope UF keeps Muschamp and UGA keeps Richt.... forever.

I will go on record saying that I firmly believe that SCAR beats Mizzou this weekend and we begin to see Mizzou slide. Remember their first 4 games were against teams who were all worse than Kentucky from a talent stand point.
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I agree... and I actually pull for Mizzou outside of UT. We live in MO. My son goes to school there.
 
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#32
#32
daj2576 said:
Had we beat UGA, we would be on track for 8-4.

As it stands right now, there is no explanation for anything less than a win against Vandy and Kentucky. That is 6-6.

I still believe Jones will get UT to 7-5, based on talent and barring catastrophe. Mizzou is primed for a huge let down, and they aren't that talented regardless of how they beat a decimated UGA team and a UF team that should probably get Muschamp fired.

I will go on record saying that I firmly believe that SCAR beats Mizzou this weekend and we begin to see Mizzou slide. Remember their first 4 games were against teams who were all worse than Kentucky from a talent stand point.
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i agree about USCe this weekend. they will be pretty pissed going into Columbia, MO. Mike Davis will have a day!
 
#33
#33
I want USCe to win this weekend. I'm not all about this wanting MO to be highly ranked when we meet them. Screw that. The more they win, the more confidence they'll have. USCe needs to kick their arses while we pull off the game of the year in a fourth quarter squeaker.

"You have the game winning kick this weekend, right Palardy"?
 
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#34
#34
If we are going to make car analogies to sporting teams, we are the 1968 Firebird with a 400 engine that hit a fence, needed significant work and was on it's fourth buyer. The engine ran, just not at peak levels. The body had rust and holes from neglect and where it had sat in the weather too long. Tires are bald and worn with dry rot. The transmission is missing the 1st and 3rd gears. And interior was covered by blankets that just didn't fit right as well as having some springs that were entirely uncomfortable.

Engine is the offense. All the parts are there, just need to make sure the plugs are firing at the right time. But replacing parts with all new plugs and pistons, it's taken some time to break in, but has started getting back to performing where it should be.

Defense is the transmission. Still missing those gears to make it run at full strength. But the parts are on order and will have it back up to par soon enough.

Interior is the kicker. Had a lot of problems with blankets being thrown over the springs that didn't fit.

Tires are the special teams. Enough to get you where you are going, but not meant for racing.

Body work is the coaching staff. Needed just the right amount of replacing panels, painting and polishing to have it looking good. From the outside, the body is looking pretty dandy now.

And after the exterior starts looking good, Butch and company are getting the motor timed right and fixing what needs to be fixed. Getting the gears replaced on the transmission and have put in leather seats where blankets and springs once were. Have replaced the tires with high performance racing models.

And in short order, this baby will be ready to race once again.
 
#35
#35
Grand Vol said:
If we are going to make car analogies to sporting teams, we are the 1968 Firebird with a 400 engine that hit a fence, needed significant work and was on it's fourth buyer. The engine ran, just not at peak levels. The body had rust and holes from neglect and where it had sat in the weather too long. Tires are bald and worn with dry rot. The transmission is missing the 1st and 3rd gears. And interior was covered by blankets that just didn't fit right as well as having some springs that were entirely uncomfortable.

Engine is the offense. All the parts are there, just need to make sure the plugs are firing at the right time. But replacing parts with all new plugs and pistons, it's taken some time to break in, but has started getting back to performing where it should be.

Defense is the transmission. Still missing those gears to make it run at full strength. But the parts are on order and will have it back up to par soon enough.

Interior is the kicker. Had a lot of problems with blankets being thrown over the springs that didn't fit.

Tires are the special teams. Enough to get you where you are going, but not meant for racing.

Body work is the coaching staff. Needed just the right amount of replacing panels, painting and polishing to have it looking good. From the outside, the body is looking pretty dandy now.

And after the exterior starts looking good, Butch and company are getting the motor timed right and fixing what needs to be fixed. Getting the gears replaced on the transmission and have put in leather seats where blankets and springs once were. Have replaced the tires with high performance racing models.

And in short order, this baby will be ready to race once again.
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Eh, cars are too subjective to be effective analogies.

Personally I can't get past thinking that at the end of the day, all you will have is a 1968 GM. Too much work to just end up with...that.

Classics are great and all, but I want all of this work and anticipation to be something that can out run the other high performance vehicles we will be facing. It seems like you want an ode to what once was. Give me a purpose built race car, or something European, high performance and hand-made, over a 40 year old piece of history.
 
#36
#36
daj2576 said:
Eh, cars are too subjective to be effective analogies.

Personally I can't get past thinking that at the end of the day, all you will have is a 1968 GM. Too much work to just end up with...that.

Classics are great and all, but I want all of this work and anticipation to be something that can out run the other high performance vehicles we will be facing. It seems like you want an ode to what once was. Give me a purpose built race car, or something European, high performance and hand-made, over a 40 year old piece of history.
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Touche

However, I'd rather it be American built. Europeans don't know Richard all about our football.
 
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#37
#37
daj2576 said:
Butch inherited a team with solid talent, contrary to what many people want to believe after seeing Dooley handle the team for three years. At Cincy, Butch was driving something closer to a Dart.

The talent on this team is capable of predicting a 7-5 finish and predicted a win over SCAR. If that is a Dart, then so be it. I am not overly attached to that metaphor.
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Do you have a system/method for determining how talent relates to covering the line?

Serious question actually.
 
#38
#38
patrick said:
Do you have a system/method for determining how talent relates to covering the line?

Serious question actually.
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Yes. And it is definitive. Can I share it? Nope. I doubt my employer who payed me to create it would be very happy.

I try not to look at it too much as, 1) it took me well over 1200 hours to create and I don't want to look at it, and 2) I don't want to ever confuse its findings with my much simpler versions that I share with you guys.
 
#40
#40
daj2576 said:
Butch inherited a team with solid talent, contrary to what many people want to believe after seeing Dooley handle the team for three years. At Cincy, Butch was driving something closer to a Dart.

The talent on this team is capable of predicting a 7-5 finish and predicted a win over SCAR. If that is a Dart, then so be it. I am not overly attached to that metaphor.
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Not so sure that is correct! Butch inherited a tem which has some SEC talent, but no where near SEC team speed.

We have one running back with sub 4.5 speed, linebackers with sub SEC speed, DBs with sub SEC speed, TE with sub SEC speed and DEs with sub SEC speed. Butch was able to bring in some Freshmen who are faster than last years players, but this teams is very short in depth. The incoming class is expected to increase over team speed and help establish some depth, however, much of next years player will have less experience than this year's team. The 2016 team should fit the team you think we inherited this year.
 
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#41
#41
VOLINVONORE said:
Not so sure that is correct! Butch inherited a tem which has some SEC talent, but no where near SEC team speed.

We have one running back with sub 4.5 speed, linebackers with sub SEC speed, DBs with sub SEC speed, TE with sub SEC speed and DEs with sub SEC speed. Butch was able to bring in some Freshmen who are faster than last years players, but this teams is very short in depth. The incoming class is expected to increase over team speed and help establish some depth, however, much of next years player will have less experience than this year's team. The 2016 team should fit the team you think we inherited this year.
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So did we win any games, and play a couple of really close games against teams who were solid at the time, or am I seeing into the future (like 2016)? I am confused by your logic. Did Butch make our players play fast enough to keep up with UGA, UF and SCAR with his mind?

We aren't as slow or as untalented across the board as many want to believe. We aren't the fastest team in the SEC, but we aren't the slowest and a bit of scheming and teaching better angle of attack can make up for that.
 
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#42
#42
daj2576 said:
Mitch Hedberg had a great quote that might apply here: "An escalator can never break: it can only become stairs. You should never see an Escalator Temporarily Out Of Order sign, just Escalator Temporarily Stairs. Sorry for the convenience."

That dude was funny, may he rest in peace.

As far as the other quibble about "definitive" proof...that might seem a bit much. When taken into context and over his history, Jones has pretty definitive proof that he can not only perform to talent levels, but can increase those levels with recruiting, then over-perform. I know that many had this assumption that doing that in the SEC would be a huge leap from the Big East, but that is a fundamental trait of his and it is definitive. Will it continue to hold true? Evidence so far suggests so. It is like this: I have definitive proof based on history that the sun will rise tomorrow. That won't be true every day, but until it isn't true, it is. ;)

I always appreciate your comments and enjoy our banter.
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Ha! That's just about my favorite Hedberg joke, owing in large part to a particular out-of-order elevator outside my office building which they won't allow people to walk up or down.

I get where you're coming from on the evidence. He has a track record at other schools, and the only significant data point that we have for Tennessee is consistent. It doesn't really matter how I want to categorize the proof anyway. I subjectively believe CBJ will continue to win here, mostly because I see him recruiting talent and installing winning habits in the current roster. I just like more data points, that's all.

Cheers, man!
 
#46
#46
BaldBiker said:
I want USCe to win this weekend. I'm not all about this wanting MO to be highly ranked when we meet them. Screw that. QUOTE]

Although I usually enjoy seeing the Ol' Ball Scratch get his arse kicked, I don't particularyly want MO to win either. MO and A&M still feel like interlopers to me. It'll be a few years before I can accept them as bona fide SEC members. I don't really dislike MO, but I wouldn't mind seeing them knocked down a peg by losing on Saturday. Even if they lose to SC, they'll still be ranked when we play them. It just ain't right for an SEC newcomer to be unscathed this far into the season. By the same token, I won't be all that bothered if MO does win. Their ensuing overconfidence, and even higher ranking, the following Saturday will be to our advantage.
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#47
#47
Special Ed said:
Easy on the Dodge Dart. I bought my daughter one because it's one of the safest cars on the road.
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I thought they quit making those in the 70s!

But I digress! As a program, we are a Ferrari. Dools was a pinto. Jones is a Rolls Royce.
 
#48
#48
beneVOLence said:
Huh! Where did you get that? :crazy:
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2) Teams exceeding expectations: Ole Miss (+1), Missouri (+2) and Vandy (+1).

3) Teams under-performing: Auburn (-1), Florida (-2), and Georgia (-1). With Florida's issues, Georgia's Richt is likely to win that game and could finish the season as usual (talent +0). Muschamp, on the other hand, has a history of being the SEC's biggest under-performer (now that Chizik and Dooley are gone). I don't expect him to be at UF in 2015.

Kentucky (+0)

If you still do not understand where I am coming from, I can put it in an excel sheet and color it for you
 
#49
#49
ScreaminVolHawkins said:
2) Teams exceeding expectations: Ole Miss (+1), Missouri (+2) and Vandy (+1).

3) Teams under-performing: Auburn (-1), Florida (-2), and Georgia (-1). With Florida's issues, Georgia's Richt is likely to win that game and could finish the season as usual (talent +0). Muschamp, on the other hand, has a history of being the SEC's biggest under-performer (now that Chizik and Dooley are gone). I don't expect him to be at UF in 2015.

Kentucky (+0)

If you still do not understand where I am coming from, I can put it in an excel sheet and color it for you
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Gotcha! I wasn't trying to be a smart, but I can tell you are. I still don't think his analysis is saying that Vanderbilt and Kentucky is doing better than Auburn. It is all about how you are doing with your talent compared to the talent of the teams you have played against at this point in the season. It has very little to do with comparing this team to that team. It is more to do about what the coaches are doing with the talent he has on the team against the talent that they have played against. For example, if Alabama loses a game they are going to be -1, but it doesn't mean Kentucky is doing better at +0. It just means with the talent they have they should have won that game.
 
#50
#50
beneVOLence said:
Gotcha! I wasn't trying to be a smart, but I can tell you are. I still don't think his analysis is saying that Vanderbilt and Kentucky is doing better than Auburn. It is all about how you are doing with your talent compared to the talent of the teams you have played against at this point in the season. It has very little to do with comparing this team to that team. It is more to do about what the coaches are doing with the talent he has on the team against the talent that they have played against. For example, if Alabama loses a game they are going to be -1, but it doesn't mean Kentucky is doing better at +0. It just means with the talent they have they should have won that game.
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Very good explanation. A (-) or a (+) are just indications of performance vs. expectations, not rankings of the teams themselves. It is entirely consistent with this evaluation for a team to have a (+) ranking and still be a bottom tier team in the SEC, or vice versa. In fact, it is more likely that a bottom tier team is a (+) due to the fact that a team like Bama who out recruits everyone else, cannot win a game they should lose. There aren't any games they should lose. Florida is in a similar position. You can see the difference between those teams with Bama averaging (-1) and Florida averaging (-2/-3).
 
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