This should stop the NCAA talk

#26
#26
calban said:
Unfortunately, Alabama was one of the teams we couldn't lose to as far as RPI goes.
Best we can finish regular season now is 86-92 (approx)
think they'd pull a Bama(2011) on us if we finished 5th in conference now.
Have to win the SEC tourney or NIT bound.
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Solid. We win the sec tourny or its nit, maybe.
 
#27
#27
Another strange turn to the season. Sadly, I dont see any way other than sec tourney. Or possibly winning out and going really far in sec t.
 
#28
#28
mtvols said:
This team is not making the NCAA tournament. Other than Florida, we can't win a road game so we won't win out. Guard play is too inconsistent.
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Well i for one believes coach Martin is doing a good job. He did not have much to work this year. I would liked to seen what Martin could do with Hopson and Harris on this team. He would have done alot better.
 
#29
#29
I still think win 4 plus 2 in sec t tournament is bubble talk and win 3 you're in. We only dropped to 110 RPI.

Ole miss +8
Sc +10
Lsu+15
Vandy+10

End of season rpi if we win out...65-75.

Win vs low seed say sc +6
Win vs higher seed say miss st +10

Rpi of 50-60

Win 3rd game vs say UF/Vandy +10

Rpi of 40-50


Now these + are all just educated guesses but I don't see then being that far off. I still think you win out and were right back to square one of this discussion saying win 2 o 3 in sec t. I just think everyone is over reacting thinking 1 loss knocks us out, we have said all along 4-1 an 2-1/3-1 sec t gets you in. I realize bama was a good opportunity but lsu will present a decen opportunity a well.

With that said though, we've got to win out.
 
#31
#31
bleedingTNorange said:
Guys very simple. We said 4-1 and winning 2 gets us in, well there's our 1 lose now we have to win out and win atleast 2 to be a bubble team. Nothing has changed as to how we make it in, the loss just came a bit sooner than we wanted.

I know this was a rpi boost opportunity, but still win out and win 2 in sec t you are bubble IMO, win 3 and you're in.
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Really depends on what Bama and Miss State do.
If we tie with either for 5th in SEC they go. we don't.
Haven't seen any real evidence, they're taking more than 5 this year.
 
#32
#32
calban said:
Really depends on what Bama and Miss State do.
If we tie with either for 5th in SEC they go. we don't.
Haven't seen any real evidence, they're taking more than 5 this year.
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What if we get 3 though. I still see that bring realistic with what UF/vandy have left If we win out.

If we win out I don't see us bring lower than 5th. Were tied with Msu and bama, i really don't see them winning out which would give us 4th iirc.

Unfortunately I'd rather be 6 than 4. I really want 2/3 or 6.

But what if they get 4 and 5 we get 6, and we win 3 and they go 1 and done. You see then still getting the nod?
 
#33
#33
At least shave the pornstache off Mcbee as a punishment and let Tatum Oneal walk back to Ktown maybe he can dodge a few possoms on the way
 
#34
#34
bleedingTNorange said:
What if we get 3 though. I still see that bring realistic with what UF/vandy have left If we win out.

If we win out I don't see us bring lower than 5th. Were tied with Msu and bama, i really don't see them winning out which would give us 4th iirc.

Unfortunately I'd rather be 6 than 4. I really want 2/3 or 6.

But what if they get 4 and 5 we get 6, and we win 3 and they go 1 and done. You see then still getting the nod?
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You're talking about seeding the SEC tourney.
If we were to win out and end up at 10-6, FLA #2 at 11-5. There could be 3 teams that end up with 10-6 records.
Bama and Miss state play each other and the one that wins could end up 10-6.
Not sure how it works if we split with Vandy who would also be 10-6.
If we don't beat Vandy, don't think our RPI is going to be good enough to make up the ground in the tournament.
Chances at this point are very slim.
I need to give it more thought and it's just MHO, but I think we need to win the tourney to get to the dance.
I know this is a jumble, but the loss sort of dazed me.
Not really that we lost, but we went back to playing our usual road game style.
 
#35
#35
calban said:
You're talking about seeding the SEC tourney.
If we were to win out and end up at 10-6, FLA #2 at 11-5. There could be 3 teams that end up with 10-6 records.
Bama and Miss state play each other and the one that wins could end up 10-6.
Not sure how it works if we split with Vandy who would also be 10-6.
If we don't beat Vandy, don't think our RPI is going to be good enough to make up the ground in the tournament.
Chances at this point are very slim.
I need to give it more thought and it's just MHO, but I think we need to win the tourney to get to the dance.
I know this is a jumble, but the loss sort of dazed me.
Not really that we lost, but we went back to playing our usual road game style.
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The tie breaker if we beat candy is record vs 1, well nobody's beating uk, so then it goes to record vs 2, we bea Florida twice so we'd hold that tie breaker with them.

No we have to not only beat vandy but win out. It's a long shot but in pretty sure win out PLUS 2-1/3-1 gets us in. Jmho from looking at rpi forecast at first glance.

Get back to me on it after you've looked more in interested on your thoughts.
 
#37
#37
calban said:
Unfortunately, Alabama was one of the teams we couldn't lose to as far as RPI goes.
Best we can finish regular season now is 86-92 (approx)
think they'd pull a Bama(2011) on us if we finished 5th in conference now.
Have to win the SEC tourney or NIT bound.
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Well that's true. I wasn't considering that. Alabama was one of our big RPI boosters as a win.
 
#38
#38
utvolfan16 said:
I am so relieved to know that we have fans who start posts like this to punish people who begin to become excited about a UT team. Keep up the good work! Just please don't talk to my kids about Santa Claus. Jeez.
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What about Santa Claus. Next your going to be saying that he's a figment of my imagination. Buzz killer.:cray:
 
#40
#40
calban said:
Really depends on what Bama and Miss State do.
If we tie with either for 5th in SEC they go. we don't.
Haven't seen any real evidence, they're taking more than 5 this year.
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Conferences don't get bids; teams do. If Tennessee wins out and wins two in the tournament, they're squarely on the bubble, regardless of what Mississippi State and Alabama do.
 
#41
#41
cncchris33 said:
Well that's true. I wasn't considering that. Alabama was one of our big RPI boosters as a win.
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That's not really true. Beating Bama would have given UT another top 50 RPI win but losing to them or LSU or SoCar on the road has the same net affect on the RPI. So if they had to lose one. It might as well be this one. Any of the other ones hurt just as bad, the home ones even more.
 
#42
#42
1985Vols said:
Every team in the SEC still has a chance, by winning the SEC Tourney. As they say, It ain't over 'till the fat lady sings...
Winning out and 3 wins in the SEC tourney and we still get in the NCAA IMO. A win over Vandy would be huge.
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The Fat Lady orders: Double Bacon cheeseburger all the way w/ fries &a diet coke
 
#46
#46
volnpowell said:
Spot on. If he's a VOL fan, he sure knows how to bring the rest of us down.
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Being from Halls, it's hard to consent agreement to anyone from Powell, but you are absolutely correct. Some of our "fans" really don't seem to support our team sometimes.
 
#47
#47
zansdad said:
That's not really true. Beating Bama would have given UT another top 50 RPI win but losing to them or LSU or SoCar on the road has the same net affect on the RPI. So if they had to lose one. It might as well be this one. Any of the other ones hurt just as bad, the home ones even more.
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I think we would prefer to have won this game and lose to Vandy at home to maximize our RPI potential, but the difference might be nominal.
 
#48
#48
cncchris33 said:
I think we would prefer to have won this game and lose to Vandy at home to maximize our RPI potential, but the difference might be nominal.
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Here's what I came up with, but check my math since it's late.

RPI record before Bama game 8.6-10.4. If they lose a road game (which they did) and win out the final record would be 12.6-11.0 for win percentage of 0.534. If they had won out except for a home loss their final record would be 13.4-11.8 for a fin percentage of 0.532. So losing on the road is just slightly better (at least according to my late night math). Either way I think I would have preferred winning today to keep the momentum going.
 
#49
#49
zansdad said:
Here's what I came up with, but check my math since it's late.

RPI record before Bama game 8.6-10.4. If they lose a road game (which they did) and win out the final record would be 12.6-11.0 for win percentage of 0.534. If they had won out except for a home loss their final record would be 13.4-11.8 for a fin percentage of 0.532. So losing on the road is just slightly better (at least according to my late night math). Either way I think I would have preferred winning today to keep the momentum going.
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That's kind of what I figured. I doubted it would have been a big difference. Still, any little bit may potentially help us in the very unlikely scenario that we win out and take two in the SEC tourney.
 
#50
#50
The rpiforecast site that has been mentioned so many times actually predicted that we'd finish conference play at 8-8. Same record as last year.
They show the probabilities for winning remaining games and Bama was one we were expected to lose.
Our RPI dropped about 6 spots to 111, some services will have us lower.
I'm posting this for those who are tired of talking possibilities and are more comfortable with probabilities.
With the Alabama loss the probabilities of us making the dance are very very slim.
But, for others who never give up, the possibility is still there.
 
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