This Week

#54
#54
Ok. I have read what people think and you all have valid points. I am with the program now.

Duncan Pence had some issues that the school could not live with, not just the baseball team. Sometimes you need to cut a person loose.
 
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#55
#55
BruinVol said:
Went to Hoover with just 9 wins a year ago and 11 the year before.

Imo 13 wins is a regional lock and maybe 12
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It is not realistic to expect an at-large NCAA bid with a 12-18 or 13-17 conference record.

From time to time, teams with conference records below .500 do get at-large NCAA bids.

Last year, 3 ACC teams pulled it off. The worst of them was 3 games under .500.

Last year, the 8 and 9 seeds at Hoover, Kentucky and Alabama, both went .500 in conference play and didn't get in.

Even when the SEC placed 10 teams in the tournament in 2014, the worst conference record to get in was 14-16 (aTm and UK).

We need to go 11-7 the rest of the way in conference play to get to 14-16 and have a shot.
 
#56
#56
ShowmeVols said:
It is not realistic to expect an at-large NCAA bid with a 12-18 or 13-17 conference record.

From time to time, teams with conference records below .500 do get at-large NCAA bids.

Last year, 3 ACC teams pulled it off. The worst of them was 3 games under .500.

Last year, the 8 and 9 seeds at Hoover, Kentucky and Alabama, both went .500 in conference play and didn't get in.

Even when the SEC placed 10 teams in the tournament in 2014, the worst conference record to get in was 14-16 (aTm and UK).

We need to go 11-7 the rest of the way in conference play to get to 14-16 and have a shot.
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It all boils down to RPI. Those SEC schools had RPIs in the 60s while those ACC schools were in the 20s. If Tennessee gets to 13 wins it is very possible our RPI is in the 20s as its 39 now.
 
#57
#57
BruinVol said:
It all boils down to RPI. Those SEC schools had RPIs in the 60s while those ACC schools were in the 20s. If Tennessee gets to 13 wins it is very possible our RPI is in the 20s as its 39 now.
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Bruin, isn't an RPI under 40 considered ok for a regional? You understand this much better than I.
 
#58
#58
txbo said:
Bruin, isn't an RPI under 40 considered ok for a regional? You understand this much better than I.
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It's not as cut and dry as in hoops. Unc had an rpi around 20 last year and didn't get in but they didn't make the ACC tourney.

If Tennessee can win 5 of 6 midweek games and get to 13 sec wins I think we would get in as the rpi would be in the 20s.
 
#59
#59
BruinVol said:
It all boils down to RPI. Those SEC schools had RPIs in the 60s while those ACC schools were in the 20s. If Tennessee gets to 13 wins it is very possible our RPI is in the 20s as its 39 now.
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No, it doesn't all boil down to RPI.

RPI is a factor, but it's not the whole deal.

Last year, UNC didn't get in with an RPI of 19. Why? Their 13-17 conference record and record against the top 25.

Also, I'm not sure you understand the math of the RPI, particularly how tightly bunched the numbers are in UT's neighborhood.

The numbers are still way too fluid to predict anything. In the past two weeks, we dropped almost 20 and then gained most of them back.

There are as many points separating #1 Oregon State and #UNC as there are separating #39 UT and #81 Samford.
Numerically, we are in the halfway between #25 and #70.

We can go up in RPI if we hold serve at home and win a couple more road series, but any sweep on the road or home series loss would inflict a heavy price.
 
#60
#60
ShowmeVols said:
No, it doesn't all boil down to RPI.

RPI is a factor, but it's not the whole deal.

Last year, UNC didn't get in with an RPI of 19. Why? Their 13-17 conference record and record against the top 25.

Also, I'm not sure you understand the math of the RPI, particularly how tightly bunched the numbers are in UT's neighborhood.

The numbers are still way too fluid to predict anything. In the past two weeks, we dropped almost 20 and then gained most of them back.

There are as many points separating #1 Oregon State and #UNC as there are separating #39 UT and #81 Samford.
Numerically, we are in the halfway between #25 and #70.

We can go up in RPI if we hold serve at home and win a couple more road series, but any sweep on the road or home series loss would inflict a heavy price.
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As I said UNC didn't get in because they didn't make their own tourney.

Tenn dropped because they lost 3/4 to losing teams in MTSU and Georgia. All three of those losses were at home which hurts worse.

Like I said if tennesse goes 5/6 in the midweek and wins 10/18 in the SEC their rpi is very likely in the 20s.

There are no more SEC series that will hurt due to overall record. Only have gains to make with wins even if it's 1/3
 
#61
#61
BruinVol said:
As I said UNC didn't get in because they didn't make their own tourney.

Tenn dropped because they lost 3/4 to losing teams in MTSU and Georgia. All three of those losses were at home which hurts worse.

Like I said if tennesse goes 5/6 in the midweek and wins 10/18 in the SEC their rpi is very likely in the 20s.

There are no more SEC series that will hurt due to overall record. Only have gains to make with wins even if it's 1/3
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Not making the tournament didn't help UNC, but the public explanation was that UNC didn't make it because of their weak record against top 50 teams and their poor finish.

Barely making a 12-team field won't impress anyone on the committee.

There is a path to an RPI in the 20's: win half of our remaining conference games, win 3 of our 6 road games against teams with RPI's better than 20 (Vandy and UK), avoid losing home series, win all or almost all of our midweek games. But there's little room for error.

I'm not aware of any team ever getting an at-large bid with a conference record four games below .500. Nor can I recall the NCAA using RPI to pick a team with a sub-.500 conference record over teams that finished ahead of them in the conference standings. Can you think of any?

I still think we need 14 wins to make it a coin flip for a regional.
 
#62
#62
ShowmeVols said:
Not making the tournament didn't help UNC, but the public explanation was that UNC didn't make it because of their weak record against top 50 teams and their poor finish.

Barely making a 12-team field won't impress anyone on the committee.

There is a path to an RPI in the 20's: win half of our remaining conference games, win 3 of our 6 road games against teams with RPI's better than 20 (Vandy and UK), avoid losing home series, win all or almost all of our midweek games. But there's little room for error.

I'm not aware of any team ever getting an at-large bid with a conference record four games below .500. Nor can I recall the NCAA using RPI to pick a team with a sub-.500 conference record over teams that finished ahead of them in the conference standings. Can you think of any?

I still think we need 14 wins to make it a coin flip for a regional.
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I would disagree that a path to the 20s is that narrow.

15-9 gets it IMO as long as the midweek is 5-6.

That wouldn't be a team playing poorly at the end either for the committee to pick apart.

You aren't going to find many .500 ACC/SEC teams in the past 5 years that didn't have a good rpi so that criteria is irrelevant. Misssouri could end up being that team this year like Bama and Kentucky were a year ago. If so I would fully expect a tennesse team to get in over them with a RPI in the high 20s or low 30s.
 
#63
#63
BruinVol said:
I would disagree that a path to the 20s is that narrow.

15-9 gets it IMO as long as the midweek is 5-6.

That wouldn't be a team playing poorly at the end either for the committee to pick apart.

You aren't going to find many .500 ACC/SEC teams in the past 5 years that didn't have a good rpi so that criteria is irrelevant. Misssouri could end up being that team this year like Bama and Kentucky were a year ago. If so I would fully expect a tennesse team to get in over them with a RPI in the high 20s or low 30s.
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Well, let's hope they win enough for us to find out, but you just made part of my point. If the Vols' RPI goes up as a result of winning conference games, the RPI's of the teams ahead of them will either stay high or go higher as they win more conference games.

I'm still looking for an example of a team 4 games below .500 in conference play ever getting an at-large bid or a team with a conference record below .500 leapfrogging anyone ahead of them in the standings to get an at-large bid. I haven't found any, so I'm not expecting the committee to set a new precedent for us this year.
 
#64
#64
Do any of you really believe this team will win at least 7 more SEC games to get to 10-20 on the year?
 
#66
#66
ShowmeVols said:
Well, let's hope they win enough for us to find out, but you just made part of my point. If the Vols' RPI goes up as a result of winning conference games, the RPI's of the teams ahead of them will either stay high or go higher as they win more conference games.

I'm still looking for an example of a team 4 games below .500 in conference play ever getting an at-large bid or a team with a conference record below .500 leapfrogging anyone ahead of them in the standings to get an at-large bid. I haven't found any, so I'm not expecting the committee to set a new precedent for us this year.
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First of all the SEC is the only elite conference that plays 30 conference games. So the 4games under criteria you are asking for is extremely unlikely to find BUT

Auburn went in 2015 with a 13-17 record and an RPI in the 20s so that should make you feel better
 
#71
#71
BruinVol said:
First of all the SEC is the only elite conference that plays 30 conference games. So the 4games under criteria you are asking for is extremely unlikely to find BUT

Auburn went in 2015 with a 13-17 record and an RPI in the 20s so that should make you feel better
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Thanks for the Auburn example. It would make me more inclined to think 13 would be enough for the Vols--if I believed your RPI math or thought we could get to 34 wins before Hoover like they did.

Unfortunately, it will remain a theoretical question until they show last weekend was representative of how they'll play the rest of their conference schedule.

Seeing how far we dropped as a result of one midweek road loss last night shows how narrow the path to an RPI in the 20s is. It gets harder and harder to improve the RPI as we get deeper into the season

ACC & PAC-12 play 30.
 
#72
#72
ShowmeVols said:
Thanks for the Auburn example. It would make me more inclined to think 13 would be enough for the Vols--if I believed your RPI math or thought we could get to 34 wins before Hoover like they did.

Unfortunately, it will remain a theoretical question until they show last weekend was representative of how they'll play the rest of their conference schedule.

Seeing how far we dropped as a result of one midweek road loss last night shows how narrow the path to an RPI in the 20s is. It gets harder and harder to improve the RPI as we get deeper into the season

ACC & PAC-12 play 30.
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After last night winning out in the midweek is a must


My mistake on the ACC. Looking at their records from a year ago it looked like 27 games. They had a boatload of rainouts. Heck FSU only played 26 games.
 
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