'20 TN ATH Darion Williamson (FSU Commit)

#401
#401
Sleegro said:
How recruiting rankings fare projecting future NFL Draft picks

I'm guessing this is the article you saw. And yeah as they concluded in their self analysis is that they do a good job evaluating 4 and 5 star easier to spot talent. What they minimize though in their eagerness to pat themselves on the back is that in the 2 draft classes they analyzed is that over 60% of players drafted were 3 star or lower. Which tells me that they are not very good at evaluating players that aren't obvious can't miss guys. Which is like 90-95% of prospects. 3 star basically just means they have no clue. It would be a much more useful system if they tried harder to evaluate that group so it wasn't just a catch all guess for them. When 60% of a draft is made up of a group that they are only about 6% accurate in predicting, then I don't know why they're bragging about it.
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I guess it depends on what your definition of a 5/4/3 star is. I don’t know if there is a definitive methodology, and I didn’t read the article above. But what I consider the value of the stars to be is confidence in the ability to come in and make an impact right away. Five stars should be able to do it most times, and really shouldn’t be red shirt candidates unless it’s like at QB or something. But you get down to three stars and it’s a complete crapshoot. Yes, a 3 star can come in and have an impact, those are not rare. But it’s just as likely on the front end that that player is going to need several years to develop.

I’m of the opinion that any player with innate ability, coaching, and work can get himself to draftable position by his senior year, so I don’t see a lot of value in the validation of star rankings from the NFL side.
 
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#402
#402
chargervol said:
This.
I've seen the response a million times "of course there's more 3 stars in the NFL because there's way more 3 stars than 4&5 coming out of high school" (FF lives by it)

But what they should be asking is "why did they have so many NFL talents ranked as 3 stars?"
Because they're not as good at this as they think they are.
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Because 3 stars are good. We just have ridiculously high notions of "good" recruiting in the SEC imo.

"Three-star prospect. One of the top 10% players in the nation. This player will develop into a reliable starter for his college team and is among the best players in his region of the country. Many three-stars have significant pro potential"
 
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#403
#403
benholt06 said:
Stars matter on the macro. But you can't just say because a guy is a lower 3 star he can't play. Does the NFL never get players from FCS or non-Power 5 schools? Even some of the guys CJP filled the class out with like Tillman look like they could be players in a year or two.

I think the 2 headed attack of Chandler and Jordan this year can be dangerous. Jordan doesn't have the breakaway speed, but he's a damn bowling ball. Solid kid and Banks has done NOTHING to justify taking his carries yet. Gray might but he's obviously a talented kid.
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Banks>Jordan
 
#404
#404
Devo182 said:
Because 3 stars are good. We just have ridiculously high notions of "good" recruiting in the SEC imo.

"Three-star prospect. One of the top 10% players in the nation. This player will develop into a reliable starter for his college team and is among the best players in his region of the country. Many three-stars have significant pro potential"
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And you don't see including 3,4 and 5 stars under "significant pro potential" as don't know sh**?
If not, send me a check, because I can do that.
 
#406
#406
chargervol said:
And you don't see including 3,4 and 5 stars under "significant pro potential" as don't know sh**?
If not, send me a check, because I can do that.
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Speaking of that, some VNers should get together and start a new, sleek looking recruiting site. Just come up with a formula based on offers and ghost the composite in the meantime. Come up with bogus tweets about how hard we are working at evaluating film. Charge 9.94 a month just to undercut the competition. Come up with articles that say a lot of nothing. Publicly insitigate wars between Rivals and 247 through social media. It would be a great troll job and we'd make millions (or hundreds, who knows?).
 
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#407
#407
Devo182 said:
Speaking of that, some VNers should get together and start a new, sleek looking recruiting site. Just come up with a formula based on offers and ghost the composite in the meantime. Come up with bogus tweets about how hard we are working at evaluating film. Charge 9.94 a month just to undercut the competition. Come up with articles that say a lot of nothing. Publicly insitigate wars between Rivals and 247 through social media. It would be a great troll job and we'd make millions (or hundreds, who knows?).
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"Just as good" would happen but I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if we had a higher success rate.

I think the services used to be more solid, but money (their camps) and politics have caused a drop.
 
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#411
#411
Sleegro said:
3 star basically just means they have no clue. It would be a much more useful system if they tried harder to evaluate that group so it wasn't just a catch all guess for them. When 60% of a draft is made up of a group that they are only about 6% accurate in predicting, then I don't know why they're bragging about it.
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I've thought the same thing. However, I do understand that no recruiting service likely has the $$$ to pay for the number of analysts necessary to do in-depth research on every 3* or lower. But with the greater availability of game tape, maybe it is a possibility.

At the end of the day, the recruiting services don't do a good job, IMO, of consistently ranking kids outside the "can't miss" prospects. Throw in the shady practices re: summer camp attendance (e.g., rankings increased/decreased solely based on paying to attend Rivals camps), and the often unexplained rises/falls in rankings during the off-season, and there should be healthy skepticism about rankings outside the top 50-ish prospects.
 
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#412
#412
SLICKYINC said:
Yep, your case for Jordan is supported by massive amounts of data...
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The data says neither one was good at all last year (granted, the OL...). Chandler was the only respectable one if we are just looking at numbers.
 
#415
#415
chargervol said:
This.
I've seen the response a million times "of course there's more 3 stars in the NFL because there's way more 3 stars than 4&5 coming out of high school" (FF lives by it)

But what they should be asking is "why did they have so many NFL talents ranked as 3 stars?"
Because they're not as good at this as they think they are.
Click to expand...
1564073733864.gif
 
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#416
#416
Devo182 said:
Idk about Rivals, but 247 will give us an idea of what the analysts were going off on their board or sometimes get an analyst to drop by.
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Yep, that's true in some cases, but often the explanation (especially when a ranking drops) only comes after the analyst gets a load of nastygrams from fans.
 
#417
#417
chargervol said:
"Just as good" would happen but I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if we had a higher success rate.

I think the services used to be more solid, but money (their camps) and politics have caused a drop.
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Truth! These NFL success based on stars data doesn’t factor in when the services were actually good at what they do and whenever they turned into political, offer worshipping gutter garbage. 😎
 
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#418
#418
When comparing across years, you've also got to remember that the composite is a calculation based on player's rankings (i.e. #21) relative to one another rather than a rating (0.8995). Stars are assigned in buckets based on the rankings rather than a rating. So there are 32 5 stars every year, whether there's really 32 or 28 or 40 players worthy of a 5 star rating. So a 2019 5 star might not be equivalent to a 2017 5 star depending on the strength of the recruiting class.
 
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#419
#419
3rdDegreeVol said:
When comparing across years, you've also got to remember that the composite is a calculation based on player's rankings (i.e. #21) relative to one another rather than a rating (0.8995). Stars are assigned in buckets based on the rankings rather than a rating. So there are 32 5 stars every year, whether there's really 32 or 28 or 40 players worthy of a 5 star rating. So a 2019 5 star might not be equivalent to a 2017 5 star depending on the strength of the recruiting class.
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That's...kinda a dumb way to do it, IMO. It should be by rating, not arbitrarily saying there's 32 five stars every class. That's just not true.
 
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#420
#420
AngryButchJones said:
That's...kinda a dumb way to do it, IMO. It should be by rating, not arbitrarily saying there's 32 five stars every class. That's just not true.
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These services are just for entertainment so it doesn't matter. The services that schools actually use are what matters.
 
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#421
#421
Sleegro said:
These services are just for entertainment so it doesn't matter. The services that schools actually use are what matters.
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Can we get a sticky of the services that actually matter to TN. Maybe would keep some of the confusion to a minimum.
 
#425
#425
SLICKYINC said:
Come on man! Just the names of the services so we can say "refer to sticky post".
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1. XOS ThunderCloud Scout
Price: $75,000 annually

XOS ThunderCloud Distribution Service
Price: $25,000 annually

2. The Underclassmen Report by 3Step Sports
Price: $12,600 annually

3. Tracking Football
Price: $14,955 annually

4. Agile Sports Technologies: Football National Video (Also known as Hudl.co)
Price: $35,000
 
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