Week Five: What We Learned
ANALYSIS Kendall Rogers - March 20, 2017
1 Oregon State is the nations best team
Yes, you can make an argument for Louisville right now, but give me the Beavers, who have played a much tougher schedule to-date. The Beavers hit the road over the weekend to begin Pac-12 play against Arizona State, a team which impressed me offensively against TCU a few weeks ago in Fort Worth. Well, that offense was non-existent over the weekend, thanks to OSUs premier pitching. The Beavers, who now have an insanely low 1.06 staff ERA, silenced the Sun Devils for one, yes, one run, in three games. OSU continues to get contributions from its pitchers, but the rise of Luke Heimlich, Bryce Fehmel and especially Jake Thompson is the biggest key. Heimlich has a 0.25 ERA in 36.2 innings, along with 44 strikeouts and five walks, while Fehmel has a 2.00 ERA and Thompson has a 1.08 ERA in 33.1 innings. The Beavers also are salty offensively, where theyre hitting .293 with super sophomore Nick Madrigal hitting .426 with three homers and 11 RBIs. Next weekends home series against Arizona will be a dandy and our Frankie Piliere will be in the house for the heavyweight bout.
2 George Hortons Ducks look formidable
While the Beavers are getting all the headlines in Oregon, and rightfully so, the Ducks are quietly putting together a solid campaign, sitting at 13-5 after taking two of three from California over the weekend. The Ducks are now winners of nine of their last 10 games and continue to get strong performances from their pitching staff. For instance, lefty David Peterson struck out eight, walked one and allowed nine hits in six shutout innings this past weekend, while Matt Mercer had a gritty outing followed by a pair of solid bullpen performances. The most surprising thing against Cal was Oregons offense, which totaled 20 runs the first two games. Funny note about the Ducks (and Beavers): Last year, I was scheduled to cover the series between the Ducks and Beavers, but it ended up being such a meaningless series that I cancelled the trip. This year, it could be at its absolute best.
3 Texas might be close, but its not there yet
I said earlier this week the Longhorns had a chance to make a huge statement on the national stage. The Horns took care of the first prong earlier this week with a midweek win over Texas A&M, albeit the Aggies are playing less than stellar baseball right now. But this past weekend, the Longhorns dropped all three games to Texas Tech. How razor thin was the margin, though? UT dropped the first two games 2-1 and the series finale, 8-5, in a game that Tech seemed to have control of most of the way. Simply put, the Longhorns need to get healthy and start doing the little things right. The Horns are still without Zane Gurwitz and Patrick Mathis, who are out with injuries for the next few weeks, while they had small lapses and miscues that cost them against the Red Raiders. UT looks like a definite regional team to me, but sitting at 13-9 with a rugged conference slate, it needs to start doing the little things right.
4 Rice likely will not make the postseason
Yes, its college baseball, and crazy things can happen in our sport. But the Owls would need a miraculous turnaround to make the postseason at this point. Rice hit the road over the weekend and was swept by surging Old Dominion. As a result, the Owls are now 6-16 with FIU, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss the next four weekends. If its not one thing, its something else for the Owls right now. Rice actually pitched well enough over the weekend to take the series from the Monarchs, but the offense couldnt get into a groove. Its amazing to say this, but it might just be the conference tournament or bust for the Owls, who havent missed the postseason since 1994. Some point to Utah last season as a reason for hope for the Owls. However, remember that the Utes won the Pac-12 automatic bid via the the regular season title and still finished with an RPI of 90.
5 Louisvilles Brendan McKay is on another level
The Cardinals havent played the toughest schedule so far, ranked in the 200s from a SOS standpoint. However, dont let that schedule deter you from the bonkers season the two-way star is putting together. McKay had another strong start on the mound this past weekend, striking out 12, walking one and allowing just five hits in seven shutout innings in a win. But its what hes doing at the plate this spring thats most impressive. McKay is hitting .481 with four homers and 17 RBIs, along with a .759 slugging percentage and yes, a .592 on-base percentage. Saying those numbers are loud would be quite an understatement.
6 Kentucky is the real deal
The Wildcats entered the season as a team we considered for the D1Baseball Top 25. UK fell just short of a preseason ranking, but joined the fold this week for good reason. I must admit, I was really impressed with the Wildcats this past Friday against Texas A&M. Even without Evan White (hamstring) and T.J. Collett (coming back from a knee injury), the Wildcats showed a mature offensive approach and had their way with the A&M pitching staff. Furthermore, Sean Hjelle and Zach Logue put together strong starts, while Justin Lewis allowed just three runs in 6.1 innings in the series finale. UK has some balance and will only get better once White and Collett can return to the lineup. Nick Mingione and his staff could have something special with this group.
7 Florida has some serious offensive issues
So, the Gators struggled offensively the past few weeks, but we were willing to give them a mulligan with the assumption theyd start putting things together to begin SEC play at Auburn. Well, that didnt happen as the Gators scored nine runs in three games in an 0-3 weekend against the Tigers. With LSU on the horizon, UF is now hitting .240 as a team, which sits at the bottom of the conference. Furthermore, JJ Schwarz continues to struggle with an average around .200, while Dalton Guthrie dropped below .300 and Jonathan India, who looked good at times over the weekend, is now hitting .267. LSU provides a stiff test for Florida this weekend. While the Gators possess three weapon arms in Faedo, Singer and Kowar, the Tigers will find ways to score some runs. That again puts pressure on UFs offense going against to stud duo of Alex Lange and Jared Poche.
8 Tennessee is better, but still has work to do
The Vols made a statement with a strong 12-2 start to the season and had hoped to make their strongest statement to date this weekend against South Carolina. However, things didnt go as planned for Dave Serranos club, as they got swept at home by the Gamecocks, who were without two of their best assets in righthanders Clarke Schmidt and Tyler Johnson. The Vols were limited to seven runs in three games, while the bullpen faltered in the first two games and starting pitcher Will Neely allowed five runs on six hits in four innings in the series finale. Were not about making brash judgements after one series, but the Vols need to bounce back this weekend against struggling Mississippi State.
9 Southern Miss could be Conference USAs elite club
Scott Berrys Golden Eagles had a strong 2016 campaign, but had some holes to fill entering this season. Well, they were still supposed to be a quality club with a strong chance to reach the postseason. However, there were some definite unknowns. USM dropped a tough and hard-fought non-conference series against UL Lafayette a few weeks ago, but have been terrific since, sweeping red-hot Louisiana Tech on the road this past weekend. Freshman Matt Wallner, who originally signed with North Dakota (it has since dropped the program), has been quite the infusion, hitting over .300 at the plate, while also having an unblemished ERA in 9.2 innings of work, along with a fastball up to 94-95 mph. Nick Sandlin, as usual, has been a weapon on the back-end, too, with a perfect ERA in 15.2 innings, along with 25 strikeouts and six walks.
10 Florida States pitching is far from a finished product
At least the Seminoles were ranked No. 1 for a week, right? FSU celebrates its top billing last week with an ugly trip up north to face Virginia Tech. FSU began the weekend in dominant fashion with a 9-2 win over the Hokies, but was atrocious on the mound the rest of the weekend. For instance, Tyler Holton allowed six runs and six hits in 3.2 innings in Game Two, while Drew Parrish allowed seven runs on eight hits in 5.1 innings in the series finale. While FSUs offense did nothing in the finale, the more troubling aspect to me is the fact FSU allowed 31 runs the final two games. That needs to improve this week, as the Noles get ready for a tougher than youd expect series against bruised up Notre Dame.