I disagree that that is “what we do know.” This is not THE no-fly list, obviously, because it’s not A no-fly list. So the criteria are probably less than “a threat to US skies” because if they had evidence of that, they’d put you on THE no-fly list.
Given that, the criteria could be nearly anything. It could be based on some information TSA was passed by outside agencies, like threats against Tulsi Gabbard. It could be auto generated, based on certain travel destinations. More likely, because government, and because it’s not THE no-fly list, it’s probably a number of factors that are actually really terrible at picking targets.
And neither seems more or less plausible.
If you’ve got an axe to grind with somebody, you don’t put them on a non-invasive list that they wouldn’t even know they were on unless it leaks and hurts you. I guess it’s plausible some nobody civil service flunky with bad judgment did it, like the doctored Trump campaign email, but that doesn’t support the narrative that she’s using it to push.
I have no basis to believe she is or is or is not a threat to US skies meets the criteria for being placed on this list, whatever that criteria is. Your list of reasons to trust her didn’t move the needle for me, given the recent examples of Bob Menendez, George Santos(?), and many others.
What I do have a basis for is that right wing media routinely pulls **** like this where they say “omg Tulsi Gabbard is now on a no-fly list” and then it turns out that actually she just flew to Syria or something and got temporarily auto-populated to the list.