UGA Coin Toss Dilemma

#26
#26
We will defer if we win the toss. Puts a lot of pressure on Georgia and we get the ball to start second half. GBO!
 
#28
#28
I don't recall what game last year but we had won like 4 or 5 coin tosses in a row and Heupel was asked his philosophy behind deferring.

He basically explained that the math in a tempo offense works out that you get the ball last in the first half, so you want it again to start the second regardless of.hiw the first half ends.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NighthawkVol
#33
#33
Dadof2Vols said:
To me it’s obvious the “Big Balls, Petal to the Metal CJH” will elect to receive if UT wins the coin toss.

If UGA wins the Coin Toss will Kirby have the balls to kick to UT first thinking his defense can get a quick stop and gain field position or will he elect to receive to keep UT from getting the first score.

I really think if UGA wins the toss this could be a pivotal decision for Kirby.

I think UT would elect to receive and so would Kirby even though he would probably prefer to go on D first against most teams.
Click to expand...
If I’m Josh, I’d elect to defer. Our defense has been very, very good at getting stops on the first drive. Then again, it would be nice to already be up 7-0 by that point… tough one.
 
#36
#36
PEPPERJAX said:
UT should defer IMO. It would be huge if they force a 3 & out and get the ball to start the 3rd quarter.
Click to expand...
Mathematically, the Vols always want the ball first at the start of the game.

Because we run drives faster in the first half, which yields a higher chance the other team could gain an extra possession over us.

Goes something like this: say we're running 2:00 drives in the first half, while the other team's drives are taking 4:00. That's a 4/6 or 2/3 chance at any given point in the half, they've got the ball. When the half ends, there's a 2/3 chance they'll be on a drive.

If we start the first half with the ball, and they end the first half with the ball, both teams get an == number of possessions. If they start AND end the half with the ball, they get 1 possession more than us.

~ ~ ~

You might say, well, the same thing is true in the second half. But it's not. Primarily because we tend to slow down our drives in the second half. Whether because we have a nice lead built up, or the lads are tiring, or for whatever reason, Volunteer drives in the second half take considerably longer than in the first.

So if in the second half our drives are 4:00 and the other team's are also 4:00, that's a 50/50 chance the half will end with the other team holding the ball. Much better odds for us NOT to get stuck giving them an extra possession.

~ ~ ~

Geeky, I know. But it explains why--when they play us in particular--every team should choose to go on offense first. And if we win the toss, we should take the ball first as well.

[overtime is different, because both sides are guaranteed the same # of possessions -- there we still want to go on defense first]

Just another way Josh Heupel & Co are turning conventional football wisdom on its head.

Go Vols!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Starchief13VFL and PEPPERJAX
#37
#37
Defer, get a three and out and score. Puts a ton of pressure on their next offensive possession.
 
#38
#38
TN has been good recently scoring right before the half. Although I want to start fast... having that advantage of scoring and then getting the ball back at the start of the 3rd seems like a better scenario for this big game
 
#42
#42
VFL-82-JP said:
Mathematically, the Vols always want the ball first at the start of the game.

Because we run drives faster in the first half, which yields a higher chance the other team could gain an extra possession over us.

Goes something like this: say we're running 2:00 drives in the first half, while the other team's drives are taking 4:00. That's a 4/6 or 2/3 chance at any given point in the half, they've got the ball. When the half ends, there's a 2/3 chance they'll be on a drive.

If we start the first half with the ball, and they end the first half with the ball, both teams get an == number of possessions. If they start AND end the half with the ball, they get 1 possession more than us.

~ ~ ~

You might say, well, the same thing is true in the second half. But it's not. Primarily because we tend to slow down our drives in the second half. Whether because we have a nice lead built up, or the lads are tiring, or for whatever reason, Volunteer drives in the second half take considerably longer than in the first.

So if in the second half our drives are 4:00 and the other team's are also 4:00, that's a 50/50 chance the half will end with the other team holding the ball. Much better odds for us NOT to get stuck giving them an extra possession.

~ ~ ~

Geeky, I know. But it explains why--when they play us in particular--every team should choose to go on offense first. And if we win the toss, we should take the ball first as well.

[overtime is different, because both sides are guaranteed the same # of possessions -- there we still want to go on defense first]

Just another way Josh Heupel & Co are turning conventional football wisdom on its head.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...


Appreciate the insight.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VFL-82-JP
#46
#46
One of the dumbest things I have ever seen is a coach (in high school) winning the toss and choosing to kickoff.
 
#47
#47
Dadof2Vols said:
To me it’s obvious the “Big Balls, Petal to the Metal CJH” will elect to receive if UT wins the coin toss.

If UGA wins the Coin Toss will Kirby have the balls to kick to UT first thinking his defense can get a quick stop and gain field position or will he elect to receive to keep UT from getting the first score.

I really think if UGA wins the toss this could be a pivotal decision for Kirby.

I think UT would elect to receive and so would Kirby even though he would probably prefer to go on D first against most teams.
Click to expand...

We always defer if we win. Heupel likes to try to win the middle 8 minutes...score before the half, then get the ball in the 2nd half and score again.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Woodlawn VOL
#49
#49
VFL-82-JP said:
Mathematically, the Vols always want the ball first at the start of the game.

Because we run drives faster in the first half, which yields a higher chance the other team could gain an extra possession over us.

Goes something like this: say we're running 2:00 drives in the first half, while the other team's drives are taking 4:00. That's a 4/6 or 2/3 chance at any given point in the half, they've got the ball. When the half ends, there's a 2/3 chance they'll be on a drive.

If we start the first half with the ball, and they end the first half with the ball, both teams get an == number of possessions. If they start AND end the half with the ball, they get 1 possession more than us.

~ ~ ~

You might say, well, the same thing is true in the second half. But it's not. Primarily because we tend to slow down our drives in the second half. Whether because we have a nice lead built up, or the lads are tiring, or for whatever reason, Volunteer drives in the second half take considerably longer than in the first.

So if in the second half our drives are 4:00 and the other team's are also 4:00, that's a 50/50 chance the half will end with the other team holding the ball. Much better odds for us NOT to get stuck giving them an extra possession.

~ ~ ~

Geeky, I know. But it explains why--when they play us in particular--every team should choose to go on offense first. And if we win the toss, we should take the ball first as well.

[overtime is different, because both sides are guaranteed the same # of possessions -- there we still want to go on defense first]

Just another way Josh Heupel & Co are turning conventional football wisdom on its head.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...
We will defer if we win the toss, we have most all year. GBO!
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top