Ugh

#51
#51
Convoluted said:
I wouldn’t characterize it as negavol. It’s just reality. I suppose ignoring the real world is ok, except, eventually, the games have to be played.

I’d like to hear your reasoning as to why the LVs will be winning NCs soon. That’s not a realistic assessment in my opinion, whereas uconn is a heavy favorite this year, and they’ll only lose one starter (Faris), one bench and one hampered by chronic injury. They'll be much better next year.

Next year, the LVs will get some good players, but the main get, Mercedes is a big, and bigs usually take a year or two to develop, plus she needs to gain strength. So, I wouldn’t count on much improvement the next 2 years. I’d be satisfied if we do as well as we did this year.
The 2013 class is considered to be relatively weak, so 2014 will be key recruiting wise.

No doubt it is steadily getting more difficult to win NCs. Griner, the most dominant player in history only got 1 NC, even with Sims there the past 3 years. There is a lot more talent around and they are more widely disbursed.

It’s going to be difficult the next 3 years at least, to beat uconn. The 3 freshmen led by Breanna Stewart are already playing major roles and then there’s the All Americans, Dolson & Mosqeda-Lewis.

Coaching is going to be increasingly important. Getting the most out of each recruit will be a key to winning. It will be important for the LVs to do well quickly. Right now, we’re partially benefiting from Pat’s fame, but that will not last long.
Click to expand...
Too much truth in this post.
 
#52
#52
That's one of the main reasons why I had mixed feelings about Baylor losing. I KNEW UCONN was going to be the favorite next year with Griner and Diggins graduating. So, I didn't want them to steal one this year and have momentum going into next year. Win or lose, UCONN wasn't the best team this year. Notre Dame and Baylor were both considerably better. The big reason UCONN beat Notre Dame is because they had 4 shots at them. It's damn near impossible for a good team to beat another good team 4 times in 4 tries. I've seen it in several sports at several levels. The losing team learns something about the other team every game - they learn more than the winning team. They make adjustments and finally get a win.

TN will definitely compete for a National Championship next year in my opinion. They were a top 5-10 team all year and we're upgrading. Baylor and Notre Dame I think will drop below TN. I think we were better than Duke, California, and every SEC team this year and will again next year. Stanford is a bit of a wildcard. I thought they were overrated this year and an early bounce from the tournament somewhat corroborates that, but they had no problem beating us this year. They lose one key contributor. I like our chances with Graves and Russell teaming up on Ogwumike.

As for Louisville, it'll be interesting to see if they can recapture this year's magic next year with the secret out of the bag. They return all key players, but they've flown under the radar and it's more difficult to perform when the spotlight is on you.
 
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#53
#53
clkou said:
That's one of the main reasons why I had mixed feelings about Baylor losing. I KNEW UCONN was going to be the favorite next year with Griner and Diggins graduating. So, I didn't want them to steal one this year and have momentum going into next year. Win or lose, UCONN wasn't the best team this year. Notre Dame and Baylor were both considerably better. The big reason UCONN beat Notre Dame is because they had 4 shots at them. It's damn near impossible for a good team to beat another good team 4 times in 4 tries. I've seen it in several sports at several levels. The losing team learns something about the other team every game - they learn more than the winning team. They make adjustments and finally get a win.

TN will definitely compete for a National Championship next year in my opinion. They were a top 5-10 team all year and we're upgrading. Baylor and Notre Dame I think will drop below TN. I think we were better than Duke, California, and every SEC team this year and will again next year. Stanford is a bit of a wildcard. I thought they were overrated this year and an early bounce from the tournament somewhat corroborates that, but they had no problem beating us this year. They lose one key contributor. I like our chances with Graves and Russell teaming up on Ogwumike.

As for Louisville, it'll be interesting to see if they can recapture this year's magic next year with the secret out of the bag. They return all key players, but they've flown under the radar and it's more difficult to perform when the spotlight is on you.
Click to expand...

The teams that will compete with UConn next season are Tennessee, Duke, California, and Kentucky. The talent level for Tennessee and Duke will be just as good or better than theirs. The problem remains can either of those teams match the effort and intensity of UConn. We had our moments this season where we had great effort and others where we showed nothing. The first half vs. Louisville is a great example. We'll have to ratchet up the defense to another level to win the National title and we'll have to make shot selection a priority. The shots are gonna have to go to Russell, Graves, and Harrelson inside. Simmons is gonna have to shoot less while these three players shoot more.
We'll have Carter back and Tucker and Reynolds are lock down defenders so we have hope for a better perimeter defense. We must cut down on teams second chance points and rebound better when teams are on offense.
I think the most talented team in the nation will be Duke. They signed an awesome class and will have Chelsea Gray back as well. JMO their coaching is no where near UConn or even Tennessee so they will probably struggle again to make the final four.
 
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#54
#54
CT just poleaxed Louisville, which merely confirms the differences between geno's program and coaching and ours. Ct. has 3 freshmen who either start or get big minutes, and the huskies still put the hammer down. UT, on the other hand, has veterans who can't handle pressure and get the "jitters" and lose to an inferior team. That is COACHING. We had 1 freshman who played a lot, and yet our diehards are making excuses for our "young" team. I'm skeptical that Warlick has the toughness to build a tough team, but we'll see. Ct. Is our bitter rival, and it's difficult to see them roaring along while we underachieve. We need better coaching.
 
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#55
#55
clkou said:
That's one of the main reasons why I had mixed feelings about Baylor losing. I KNEW UCONN was going to be the favorite next year with Griner and Diggins graduating. So, I didn't want them to steal one this year and have momentum going into next year. Win or lose, UCONN wasn't the best team this year. Notre Dame and Baylor were both considerably better. The big reason UCONN beat Notre Dame is because they had 4 shots at them. It's damn near impossible for a good team to beat another good team 4 times in 4 tries. I've seen it in several sports at several levels. The losing team learns something about the other team every game - they learn more than the winning team. They make adjustments and finally get a win.

TN will definitely compete for a National Championship next year in my opinion. They were a top 5-10 team all year and we're upgrading. Baylor and Notre Dame I think will drop below TN. I think we were better than Duke, California, and every SEC team this year and will again next year. Stanford is a bit of a wildcard. I thought they were overrated this year and an early bounce from the tournament somewhat corroborates that, but they had no problem beating us this year. They lose one key contributor. I like our chances with Graves and Russell teaming up on Ogwumike.

As for Louisville, it'll be interesting to see if they can recapture this year's magic next year with the secret out of the bag. They return all key players, but they've flown under the radar and it's more difficult to perform when the spotlight is on you.
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If before ND and uconn played any games this year you said ND wouldn’t win all four games, I would agree with you. But, saying that after they had already won 3 of the games is a fallacy that can send a gambler to the poor house. By tournament time, uconn had vastly improved relative to both and was easily the top team. That’s why uconn won the 4th matchup. The fact that ND had won the three previous matchups did not influence the outcome of the 4th game. Uconn has beaten L’ville 12 times in a row. By your logic, uconn has no chance to win the NC.

Regarding Tennessee this year. Why do you say the LVs were in the top 5-10? Be honest with yourself. There was improvement during the year but only to # 9 & 10 on the two polls.

With reference to the Lady Vols competing for a NC next year, I admire your enthusiasm. It could happen, but the odds for it are not great. There are just too many other strong experienced teams. And, look at Baylor. Even with the most dominant player of all time and Sims, a great All American guard, they only won one championship.

Losing Spani, a McD etc. All American, and Kamiko will hurt. We’ll see how the new players do. No use getting too excited at this point. Plus, the SEC was quite weak this year as illustrated by their showing during the Big Dance.

Regarding L'ville, Walz is a great coach and they have the Yum, so I see them improving steadily from now on. Walz could be the next Pat Summitt.
 
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#56
#56
Convoluted said:
If before ND and uconn played any games this year you said ND wouldn’t win all four games, I would agree with you. But, saying that after they had already won 3 of the games is a fallacy that can send a gambler to the poor house. By tournament time, uconn had vastly improved relative to both and was easily the top team. That’s why uconn won the 4th matchup. The fact that ND had won the three previous matchups did not influence the outcome of the 4th game. Uconn has beaten L’ville 12 times in a row. By your logic, uconn has no chance to win the NC.

Regarding Tennessee this year. Why do you say the LVs were in the top 5-10? Be honest with yourself. There was improvement during the year but only to # 9 & 10 on the two polls.

With reference to the Lady Vols competing for a NC next year, I admire your enthusiasm. It could happen, but the odds for it are not great. There are just too many other strong experienced teams. And, look at Baylor. Even with the most dominant player of all time and Sims, a great All American guard, they only won one championship.

Losing Spani, a McD etc. All American, and Kamiko will hurt. We’ll see how the new players do. No use getting too excited at this point. Plus, the SEC was quite weak this year as illustrated by their showing during the Big Dance.

Regarding L'ville, Walz is a great coach and they have the Yum, so I see them improving steadily from now on. Walz could be the next Pat Summitt.
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There is and there always will be only one Pat Summit. However many titles Geno or Walz will win nothing will compare to what Pat did for the sport along with all she has won.
VFL and GBO!!!!
 
#57
#57
Convoluted said:
I wouldn’t characterize it as negavol. It’s just reality. I suppose ignoring the real world is ok, except, eventually, the games have to be played.

I’d like to hear your reasoning as to why the LVs will be winning NCs soon. That’s not a realistic assessment in my opinion, whereas uconn is a heavy favorite this year, and they’ll only lose one starter (Faris), one bench and one hampered by chronic injury. They'll be much better next year.

Next year, the LVs will get some good players, but the main get, Mercedes is a big, and bigs usually take a year or two to develop, plus she needs to gain strength. So, I wouldn’t count on much improvement the next 2 years. I’d be satisfied if we do as well as we did this year.

The 2013 class is considered to be relatively weak, so 2014 will be key recruiting wise.

No doubt it is steadily getting more difficult to win NCs. Griner, the most dominant player in history only got 1 NC, even with Sims there the past 3 years. There is a lot more talent around and they are more widely disbursed.

It’s going to be difficult the next 3 years at least, to beat uconn. The 3 freshmen led by Breanna Stewart are already playing major roles and then there’s the All Americans, Dolson & Mosqeda-Lewis.

Coaching is going to be increasingly important. Getting the most out of each recruit will be a key to winning. It will be important for the LVs to do well quickly. Right now, we’re partially benefiting from Pat’s fame, but that will not last long.
Click to expand...

Mercedes is one of those instant impact players. I think she will make a differece her second year. She could next year if Ball Hog Simmons would pass her the ball, but don't hold your breath. I think two years from now they start threatening again.
But UConn has next year wrapped up. It's over before it even begins. Step it up, Warlick.
 
#58
#58
iluvsmesumdooley said:
Mercedes is one of those instant impact players. I think she will make a differece her second year. She could next year if Ball Hog Simmons would pass her the ball, but don't hold your breath. I think two years from now they start threatening again.
But UConn has next year wrapped up. It's over before it even begins. Step it up, Warlick.
Click to expand...
I'm glad someone realizes that she will not come in on day one and dominate. That it will tale a year or two to be effective. Just seems to be that way for the big kids. They are so use to being superior to their high school opponents, that they get blindsided by the big, strong college kids. In her case strength will be an issue. She will come around, but let's not put too much pressure on her to perform right away.
 
#59
#59
Geno needs to move on and coach men -- then maybe the world will know if he is a great coach or not. -- Theres an opening at Rutgers -- go for it Geno
 
#61
#61
KY will likely be a good team, but I didn't really think of them as a top team this year and they are losing their leading scorer and star player, so I'm reluctant to annoint them as a top team next year.

If you flip a coin heads three times in a row, it's still a 50/50 chance of getting heads on the 4th flip. But sports is much different than flipping a coin. With sports, we're dealing with people and human behavior. The main reason it's tough for a good team to beat another good team 4 times in a row in one season is because the losing team learns MORE about the winning team than the winning team learns about the losing team. UCONN beat Louisville for the 12th time or whatevever it was because Louisville is NOT in the same category as Notre Dame and UCONN. Also, Louisville did not play UCONN 4 times this season even if they were an elite team. That 4 times in a row is applicable in ONE season between two similarly matched good teams. Just look two years ago to see more evidence. Baylor beat TAM 3 times but had to play them a 4th time in the tournament and lost.

We're splitting hairs with the #9 versus #5. I think we could beat Duke, California, Penn State or most of those teams ranked in the 5-8 slot. We didn't get to play them so we don't know but that's my opinion. If you don't think they'll compete for a national title, who do you think will? Just because Baylor lost didn't make them a bad team or insinuates they didn't compete for a national title. They lost one game by one point against a team banking in three's. That could happen to any team any year. Either you didn't play sports or didn't pay attention to how sports works.

Getting the #1 player in the country AND having our young players on a top 5 to 10 team grow up a year next year is why we will compete for a national championship imo. Plus some top teams lost top players. Graves was the only Freshman, but we still had Sophomores and Juniors, too. Players get better every year or at least SHOULD. Spani and Williams, while great players who will be missed, were role players. The core for next year will be Ariel, Simmons, Graves, and Russell with Burdick and Harrison playing a critical supporting role. There's room for a player or two to step up and contribute if they want. The wildcard is injuries. We always seem to have key players get hurt at bad times right when we're building chemistry and hitting our stride.

I'm not expecting Russell to be dominant from day 1 but I think Graves and Harrison are good enough to let Russell mature at her own pace and I DO expect her to be a key contributor from day 1. Graves came in and hit the ground running. There's no reason Russell can't be just as if not more productive.
 
#62
#62
Kentucky will be a top ten team because they got Linnae Harper one of the best point guards in the country and Markayla Epps another great point guard. Everyone else is back so they again will be our main competition along with A&M for the SEC title. If I were to list my top ten teams for next season UConn would be number one, Duke with that number one recruiting class and the return of Chelsea Gray would be number two, Tennessee with the number three class would be number three, Notre Dame got a great class and everyone returns except Diggins so number four, Stanford number five, NC got Diamond Deshields and return everyone they would be sixth, California seventh, Louisville eighth, Kentucky ninth, and Baylor tenth. South Carolina and Georgia will be in the top twenty and Rutgers should be along with Texas A&M.
 
#63
#63
Texas A&M is losing Bone so I shift them down quite a bit in a pre-season SEC poll.

My preseason SEC would be:
1. Tennessee
2. Kentucky
3. Vanderbilt (got some good freshmen coming in)
4. LSU
5. Florida (lots of youth)

South Carolina and Georgia both lose key contributors (Bruner and Walker for SC; Hassell and James for UGA) that will be hard to replace.
 
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