Vegas Concerns me

#1
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wrharvey21

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#1
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
 
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#3
#3
volfan102455 said:
Wouldn't taking TN + 8 imply they believe either (1) Tennessee will win or (2) lose by less than 8 (which implies a close game)?

Taking UGA -8 implies someone believes UGA will beat Tennessee by more than 8 points. I see this as betting against that thought

Or am I missing something?
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You are correct, sir.
 
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#7
#7
volfan102455 said:
Said differently I think the bets indicate that 94% believe this will be a close game and/or Tennessee will win and not a UGA blowout like last year.
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I think OP is saying Vegas rarely loses, and if 94% of people are taking the Vols, then Vegas would take it in the teeth should TN win or lose close. Hence, the OP recognizes rightly that Vegas is either very wrong (rare) or they are going get a lot of money should UGA win by two scores. If the 94% are correct, then Vegas should have made the line more like UGA +2.5.
 
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#8
#8
LV does not want all the $ on one team if possible. If its gets too heavy on TN look for the line to drop some to get more votes on GA to cover less of a spread. The more even the bets the better for LV. Keep in mind, they don't care who wins they are all about $.

Hey Squatch, you added yours while I was typing and didn't see you had addressed it.
 
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#9
#9
Squatch_Vol said:
I think OP is saying Vegas rarely loses, and if 94% of people are taking the Vols, then Vegas would take it in the teeth should TN win or lose close. Hence, the OP recognizes rightly that Vegas is either very wrong (rare) or they are going get a lot of money should UGA win by two scores. If the 94% are correct, then Vegas should have made the line more like UGA +2.5.
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Exactly
 
#10
#10
Vegas won't let me bet - UT anything on an alternate spread. Never see that. They're scared.
 
#11
#11
Squatch_Vol said:
I think OP is saying Vegas rarely loses, and if 94% of people are taking the Vols, then Vegas would take it in the teeth should TN win or lose close. Hence, the OP recognizes rightly that Vegas is either very wrong (rare) or they are going get a lot of money should UGA win by two scores. If the 94% are correct, then Vegas should have made the line more like UGA +2.5.
Click to expand...

If it was 94%, Vegas would have already moved the line to toss-up. Lulz. They go to whatever point gets the money somewhat spread 50 / 50.

Profits come from the juice
 
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#13
#13
volfan102455 said:
Wouldn't taking TN + 8 imply they believe either (1) Tennessee will win or (2) lose by less than 8 (which implies a close game)?

Taking UGA -8 implies someone believes UGA will beat Tennessee by more than 8 points. I see this as betting against that thought

Or am I missing something?
Click to expand...
Yes. That is the issue. That many people betting on Tennessee means a Tennessee win would be a huge blow to Vegas in the wallet. They lose out on the money for winning bets. Majority of bets on Tennessee is bad for Vegas. If you believe in conspiracy theories then yes I can see how this looks bad.
 
#16
#16
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
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Always look at money trends on Friday and Sat AM. Wise pros dump the big cash then. Money line for UT win outright is what to look at
 
#20
#20
An interesting thread, Vegas has been slow to “catch up” to the Vols. We’re 7-1 ATS this year, with an average cover of the spread by 10.4 pts (including FL where we missed the spread by 5 pts). As other posts have alluded to, Vegas is not necessarily trying to “predict” the final outcome as they are trying to balance $$ on both sides… thus it’s more of a “public confidence” metric than a simulation/model. Georgia, fyi, is 4-4 ATS, and missing the spread by an average of 1 pt a game, although they have a high variance, they either cover or miss the spread by 20ish points, kinda strange.
 
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#24
#24
I've been taking Vegas' money all season on the Vols, and don't plan to stop now. I've got quite a few moneyline and +8.5 bets for the good guys.

Kirby is 1-9 when giving up 30 or more points. I think we keep that trend going.
 
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#25
#25
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
Click to expand...
Add them to the list of those who doubted us. And we’ve kept the receipts! Get ready to pay up vegas!
 
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