Vegas Concerns me

#27
#27
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
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I begin to suspect this is false news, generated by Bet MGM to generate even more action.

They've done it before.

Check this out:

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/sec-championship-betting-georgia-alabama-bm01/

Curious, the similarities, right? 94% of the betting on one side, just like (supposedly) this week? Nevertheless "the spread isn't moving," just like this week? Both occurences even involve Georgia, though I do think that truly is a coincidence.

Yeah, this smells like a ploy by the bookies to generate additional interest. Like wow, I can't believe that line's not moving, let's get in before it does! Heh.

Go Vols!
 
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#28
#28
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
Click to expand...
With the amount of $$'s betting on Tennessee, this explains why there's drastic movement in betting lines. Another thing to watch, the professional gamblers wait until after the majority of fanbases bet, if they bet heavily on the Vols to win, it will drop again.
 
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#29
#29
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.
That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
Click to expand...

Vegas bookers don't play football, and certainly not for tomorrow's game. They're just alternative VN posters with more money and bigger mouths.
 
#31
#31
NO SIR EEE said:
Vegas also did this for the Alabama game and the national money was heavy on Tennessee. We all know how that turned out!
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Was waiting for this post. I think approximately 75% was on UT and they didn’t move the line. The infallibility of Vegas is a false notion. That being said, the midweek line is the most accurate indicator in terms of prediction. I’ve heard they had similar bad lines on other high power offenses like ‘19 LSU.
 
#32
#32
UTFanHades said:
Was waiting for this post. I think approximately 75% was on UT and they didn’t move the line. The infallibility of Vegas is a false notion. That being said, the midweek line is the most accurate indicator in terms of prediction. I’ve heard they had similar bad lines on other high power offenses like ‘19 LSU.
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If I remember right, '19 LSU was 10-3-2 against the spread that year. I remember them being a highly profitable bet.
 
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#33
#33
I also think that Tennessee is just freaking everyone out. The result so far seriously was not supposed to happen and there are still plenty out there that think we are overhyped. The boys have just gotta keep proving everyone wrong.
 
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#34
#34
I don't know, but Sagarin's Recent model only has Georgia -5.5, and a lot of other quant models factoring in recent performance, show it much closer than Vegas. I'm surprised the line hasn't shifted to something closer to -6.
 
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#35
#35
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
Click to expand...

Vegas and the house lost when TN beat lsu.
 
#36
#36
Current odds on Fanduel

GA -8.5 (105)
TN +8.5 (115)
Straight up
GA -315
TN +250
O/U 65.5
Over -114
Under - 106
 
#41
#41
I don't want to cover....I want to win!
If you have confidence that our mighty Vols are gonna go into ga and beat their asses...... bet the moneyline (+245 or whatever) and reap the rewards!!!
Screw covering, that's for sissies!!
LFG GBO
 
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#44
#44
Squatch_Vol said:
I think OP is saying Vegas rarely loses, and if 94% of people are taking the Vols, then Vegas would take it in the teeth should TN win or lose close. Hence, the OP recognizes rightly that Vegas is either very wrong (rare) or they are going get a lot of money should UGA win by two scores. If the 94% are correct, then Vegas should have made the line more like UGA +2.5.
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They are gambling too. I think they're trying to balance the books from the beating they took on the bama game.
 
#45
#45
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
Click to expand...
Certainly a Hooker will be arrested Friday night, but it won't be our guy.
 
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#46
#46
Squatch_Vol said:
I think OP is saying Vegas rarely loses, and if 94% of people are taking the Vols, then Vegas would take it in the teeth should TN win or lose close. Hence, the OP recognizes rightly that Vegas is either very wrong (rare) or they are going get a lot of money should UGA win by two scores. If the 94% are correct, then Vegas should have made the line more like UGA +2.5.
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Better be concerned (With all the Money on Tennessee) that VEGAS ----(Da Mob) will flex it's far reaching MUSCLE and influence the outcome. Watch the CALLS closely! Yep, I AM serious...
 
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#47
#47
Jax_Vol said:
I thought it opened at +11 points?
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It did, the overwhelming money came in on UT and the points driving the line down. Same as bama week except the books didn’t adjust the line as quick as they did this week, in fact they didn’t really change until the BY news broke late. I think they learned a lesson there and they’re trying to get uga money in.
 
#48
#48
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
Click to expand...
They have taken a beating all year with the Vols. They have been horrible with lines when it concerns us, because our stats don't make sense to their model.
 
#49
#49
It's down to 80 percent on Tennessee, 20 on Georgia now. There are several games that have similar money patterns. 91 percent is on Penn State this week. 87 percent on USC, 82 percent on Michigan, 75 percent on Auburn at +12.5, 93 percent on Marshall, 79 percent on Baylor +9.5, 78 percent on Nebraska +15.5, 76 percent on Ohio State.
 
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