Vegas Concerns me

#51
#51
I like this parlay(for our sake and odds):
2 MLs: Tennessee, Notre Dame
+South Carolina at -7,
Like +1600
 
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#53
#53
Who cares what Vegas says? I remember when Bama was a 6.5 point favorite that went up to 9 points before the game. That certainly didn't make a difference (and if they had to play Milroe, we beat them by 21 points). Just go out and play our game and whatever happens, happens.
 
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#55
#55
17Vols said:
It did, the overwhelming money came in on UT and the points driving the line down. Same as bama week except the books didn’t adjust the line as quick as they did this week, in fact they didn’t really change until the BY news broke late. I think they learned a lesson there and they’re trying to get uga money in.
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If they need to get Georgia money in, just make it a 'Pick them' game.

That should do the trick....lulz!
 
#57
#57
Vegas has had Tennessee undervalued & thus wrong pretty much all yr. Hopefully they’re still wrong Sat night.
 
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#60
#60
We’ve beat the spread by 100 points it seems like since LSU.

I teased the KY spread to -17, and publicly posted before to game if anyone knew of someplace to take -30.

I don’t understand how they’re getting this so wrong.
 
#61
#61
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
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That will all change the closer it gets to game time. I don’t trust a lot off those numbers early in the week. There will be plenty of GA bettors come in 24hrs before kickoff. Also realize how many parlay/teasers (where Vegas makes most) will have GA on the money line to win. Don’t worry about Vegas lines 4-5 days before kickoff. Money will pour into GA soon. However, if it’s still 90+% of the $ is still on TN +8 at kickoff then yes—watch out.
 
#62
#62
jtupnsmoke said:
I've been taking Vegas' money all season on the Vols, and don't plan to stop now. I've got quite a few moneyline and +8.5 bets for the good guys.

Kirby is 1-9 when giving up 30 or more points. I think we keep that trend going.
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Vols are 7-1 ATS—yeah that’s a good % but
I never bet on TN. Why punish myself? Plus Vegas wants you to bet on your favorite team. Before this year—TNs ATS record was horrendous.
 
#63
#63
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
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Vegas usually gets it right...so i am concerned

However, we were a dog ti Bama too. So they aint perfect
 
#64
#64
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
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That's not how it works.

Vegas ALWAYS wants roughly equal money on both teams. They make their money on the vig - not "betting" on a team.

Vegas sets an initial line (e.g. Vols +8), and then adjust the line based upon money flow.

If more money flows on GA, then they raise the line on TN (e.g. Vols +9), and vice versa.

/end thread
 
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#65
#65
TC 83 said:
Vols are 7-1 ATS—yeah that’s a good % but
I never bet on TN. Why punish myself? Plus Vegas wants you to bet on your favorite team. Before this year—TNs ATS record was horrendous.
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I figure if we're gonna win every game, I might as well make a few dollars 🤣. I never bet anything that is going to ruin my day if i lose.
 
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#66
#66
DickeyD said:
I don't want to cover....I want to win!
If you have confidence that our mighty Vols are gonna go into ga and beat their asses...... bet the moneyline (+245 or whatever) and reap the rewards!!!
Screw covering, that's for sissies!!
LFG GBO
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If you have been betting with your heart the last 10 years, I would ask how big your cardboard box is that you live in.
 
#67
#67
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
Click to expand...

Vegas knows nothing, it’s not like they got Ace Rothstein making these lines.

1667504077364.gif
 
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#69
#69
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
Click to expand...
 
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#70
#70
Jax_Vol said:
If it was 94%, Vegas would have already moved the line to toss-up. Lulz. They go to whatever point gets the money somewhat spread 50 / 50.

Profits come from the juice
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Actually no. Vegas takes on uneven bets all the time without adjusting the line. It's a fallacy to think they always try to get 50/50 bets and make money on solely the juice.
 
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#71
#71
ButchPlz said:
Vegas hasn't gotten us figured out at all this year. We've beaten the spread all but one game.
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This.

Vegas is stuck on recruiting rankings and preseason expectations. It's why they made us a 9 point dog at home versus Alabama. Everyone knew that made no sense based on how both teams had been playing up to that point in the season.

We're just gonna have to keep surprising people.
 
#72
#72
BruiserVol said:
Yes. That is the issue. That many people betting on Tennessee means a Tennessee win would be a huge blow to Vegas in the wallet. They lose out on the money for winning bets. Majority of bets on Tennessee is bad for Vegas. If you believe in conspiracy theories then yes I can see how this looks bad.
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As was explained on TOS Vegas doesn't make money on every game. They also do not like to move the line a lot or they expose themselves to bets on both sides. It has moved already a lot. Lastly, Vegas lost their butt on LSU 2019 and has been largely wrong on 2022 Vols.

Summary: Vegas still has BVS
 
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#74
#74
Most of the money will be bet on Friday and Saturday. There's plenty of early money on this game, but history will tell you that the majority of wagers are placed the day of.
 
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#75
#75
wrharvey21 said:
Anyone else concerned about the spread Vegas put out? I saw someone shared a screenshot of a Bet MGM post that 94% of money Nationally has been bet on TN +8. I just don't see Vegas taking that big of a beating. It makes me feel like they know something. Tinfoil hat theory: News article late Friday Night: "Hooker arrested..." on some drummed up charges.

That said: I also bet TN +8. GBO!
Click to expand...
I take Tennessee straight up
 
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