Vegas "Expert" who Picked Arkie, says

#26
#26
BornAndRaisedVOL! said:
I'm sure it's exactly how UK fans feel when they play us. They've gotten a few W's in the last few decades, but even when they supposedly have a better team and things are looking up for them, more often than not, we come out with the W.

It's a real thing. I despise UF more than any other school we play, and it sickens me to think we've only beat them like 6-7 times since they joined the SEC 34 years ago. Many of those years we had the better team.
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You're wrong on both grounds. Kentucky has never out recruited Tennessee in the last 30 years. They've also never had the better team outside of one or two outliers. Tennessee has consistent been the better program. You're conflating the fact Tennessee was bad at the same time Kentucky was bad for that stretch as an indication that Kentucky was better. No both teams were not good. Tennessee just had better athletes hence why they won the majority of those matchups when both teams were terrible.

Same thing in the Florida series. They have outrecruited us consistently during this stretch. Even now when we're a top 10 team and they're unranked, if you look at 247Sports composite roster rankings they come in ahead of us. They've dominated the series because they've been better most of the time. And just like with Kentucky when both teams have been terrible, the team with the superior roster talent tends to win.

When Kentucky starts outrecruiting us and we still beat them then maybe you can talk about a psychological edge. But as long as we hold the edge roster wise it's not an upset when we beat them when they have a better record. It just means our superior roster talent showed up for that game.
 
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#28
#28
MDsweetT said:
I don’t disagree but this team needs to show us Saturday. Last weekend was a major bummer. We honestly should’ve lost by more than 5 but our defense held Arkansas in the red zone multiple times.

I think our defense will give us a chance in every game, but our offense has to play better. I would like to think this team is still championship caliber but if that’s the case, we should win by +20 at home. I know Florida has been a bugaboo but we need to go out there and dominate.
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Florida is better than people think. I think they make a bowl game this year with their tough schedule. So I disagree about needing to win by 20+ points. What we need to do is dominate the game for large stretches like we did against Oklahoma.

I expect a close game early before we pulled away in the second half. Then we'll sit on the lead and bleed the clock like we did against Oklahoma. Florida might get a garbage time score or two to make the final score look closer than it really was.
 
#30
#30
ReelfootVol said:
I don't believe we beat Florida................sorry but just being honest. Watching right now the replay on tv of Florida and UCF. Florida is much improved . Florida will shut down our only productive play, Sampson up the middle.
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How much money are you putting on Florida? If not, shut up your whining and back your team. Being scared of disappointment is a trait of weak men.
 
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#32
#32
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
You're wrong on both grounds. Kentucky has never out recruited Tennessee in the last 30 years. They've also never had the better team outside of one or two outliers. Tennessee has consistent been the better program. You're conflating the fact Tennessee was bad at the same time Kentucky was bad for that stretch as an indication that Kentucky was better. No both teams were not good. Tennessee just had better athletes hence why they won the majority of those matchups when both teams were terrible.

Same thing in the Florida series. They have outrecruited us consistently during this stretch. Even now when we're a top 10 team and they're unranked, if you look at 247Sports composite roster rankings they come in ahead of us. They've dominated the series because they've been better most of the time. And just like with Kentucky when both teams have been terrible, the team with the superior roster talent tends to win.

When Kentucky starts outrecruiting us and we still beat them then maybe you can talk about a psychological edge. But as long as we hold the edge roster wise it's not an upset when we beat them when they have a better record. It just means our superior roster talent showed up for that game.
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Wait, if we have better recruits than UK and Florida has better recruits then us how has UK beat Florids 3 years in a row?
 
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#33
#33
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
You're wrong on both grounds. Kentucky has never out recruited Tennessee in the last 30 years. They've also never had the better team outside of one or two outliers. Tennessee has consistent been the better program. You're conflating the fact Tennessee was bad at the same time Kentucky was bad for that stretch as an indication that Kentucky was better. No both teams were not good. Tennessee just had better athletes hence why they won the majority of those matchups when both teams were terrible.

Same thing in the Florida series. They have outrecruited us consistently during this stretch. Even now when we're a top 10 team and they're unranked, if you look at 247Sports composite roster rankings they come in ahead of us. They've dominated the series because they've been better most of the time. And just like with Kentucky when both teams have been terrible, the team with the superior roster talent tends to win.

When Kentucky starts outrecruiting us and we still beat them then maybe you can talk about a psychological edge. But as long as we hold the edge roster wise it's not an upset when we beat them when they have a better record. It just means our superior roster talent showed up for that game.
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We recruited better than them in the 1990s and they still beat us most of the time
 
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#34
#34
saxvol said:
Wait, if we have better recruits than UK and Florida has better recruits then us how has UK beat Florids 3 years in a row?
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Didn't they break a 30+ year losing streak just a few years ago?

Outliers happen. Kinda like how Vandy just beat Alabama. Losing 30 straight was statistically unlikely. So them having a nice little winning streak now is the odds evening out.
 
#35
#35
BernardKingGOAT said:
We recruited better than them in the 1990s and they still beat us most of the time
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According to who? Recruiting rankings are relatively new. At least the ones we the public have access to. And Florida as a state has always been talent laden even during our heyday. I highly doubt we were more talented. At best we were even. And when you're even coaching makes the difference. So put that on Fulmer being outclassed rather than a mental thing.
 
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#36
#36
My biggest fear for this weekend is that Mertz is going to dink and dunk our defense to death. That UF offense is not built for explosives. Under BIlly, Mertz has really been a guy who doesn't throw a lot, but when he does it is usually a completion for short yards. Every once and a while he gambles downfield. I expect UF to continue to try and play ball control with limited passing and 3 yards and a cloud of dust running. If you gamble, I would bet the under for sure.
 
#37
#37
JohnWardForever said:
Posting this upon request from a fellow VFL....
TENNESSEE over Florida by 8

It seems every game is a crossroads affair for Beleaguered Billy Napier
at UF. The Gators held off UCF to reach 3-2 for the season, but the trip
to Knoxville starts a career defi ning stretch for Napier. After UT comes
Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss. One thing Gators fans
have come to expect is playing an underachieving Volunteers team
that is loaded with hype and gets taken down nearly every time. UF
is 6-1 SUATS in the last seven of this series, 5-0-1 ATS on the road
versus single conference revenge and in Game Six, they are 5-1 ATS.
Neyland Stadium is one of the sports truly great homes, but the Vols
don’t always thrill their faithful in person, going a mediocre 4-10 ATS
as a conference favorite of 13 or greater. Pass protection has become a
serious problem, with QB Nico Iamaleava sacked seven times in the last
two games. Vols coach Josh Heupel admitted he and his staff should
have done better in the Arkansas game and the Razorbacks defense
had Tennessee confused. We’re much more clearheaded about the
Vols bubble being burst. We will learn much about both teams come
Saturday night.
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We’re much more clearheaded about the
Vols bubble being burst.

Does anyone know WTF this means? He could be saying "now that Arkansas has burst the bubble, look out! (UF gets beat down)" He could be saying, "the bubble is burst and they are exposed look out (UF covers or wins).

Or...????
 
#38
#38
CAVPUT said:
Welp, let's see if Heupel is the offensive genius everyone says he is. He's faced a variation of this defense many times now. Gonna keep seeing it until he forces teams to stop using it by beating it. And we're not the only team facing 3 man fronts. Surely there's tape out there of teams who've found and exploited this defense. Saturday will be very informative.
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Quality of opposition obviously also matters (see under "Chattannooga"!).

UF is 101st in run defense, Arkansas is 29th (101 ypg vs 174 ypg for UF).

In theory, we can crush UF regardless of scheme. Like Cole Cubelic said about our win over OU, UT didn't do anything fancy, they just out phsyicalled OU. Odds are we can do that to UF.

We probably can't do that to UA next week though, but I'll worry about that next week.
 
#39
#39
It is probably unhealthy how much I hate the Florida Gators. I hate them. I hate them for pouring urine on our players. I hate their stupid chomp. They have no morals or traditions that I value. They are the epitome of what is wrong with the entire nation. Losing to them this year is unacceptable. It must not happen.
 
#40
#40
NetworkVol said:
It is probably unhealthy how much I hate the Florida Gators. I hate them. I hate them for pouring urine on our players. I hate their stupid chomp. They have no morals or traditions that I value. They are the epitome of what is wrong with the entire nation. Losing to them this year is unacceptable. It must not happen.
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I'll add they got lucky we laid an egg last year, with two starting OL out and Joe Milton at QB. I drove 10+ hours to see that, on my birthday, so was very disappointed.

Looking forward to a better outcome this year. :)
 
#42
#42
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Florida is better than people think. I think they make a bowl game this year with their tough schedule. So I disagree about needing to win by 20+ points. What we need to do is dominate the game for large stretches like we did against Oklahoma.

I expect a close game early before we pulled away in the second half. Then we'll sit on the lead and bleed the clock like we did against Oklahoma. Florida might get a garbage time score or two to make the final score look closer than it really was.
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Someone is actually thinking we need to win by 20+ points? With this offense? I'll be happy if we can SCORE 20 points much less win by that amount. Our defense is okay, but ain't no way they're shutting an SEC opponent out home or away....not with our secondary.
 
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#43
#43
Too many points against this Gator team. They can throw it better than Arkansas and we just about gave up 300 to them. If they don't get after Mertz then he'll find someone behind our awesome Martinez lead secondary..
 
#45
#45
Cartervol said:
Too many points against this Gator team. They can throw it better than Arkansas and we just about gave up 300 to them. If they don't get after Mertz then he'll find someone behind our awesome Martinez lead secondary..
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You're not really expecting Banks to throw caution to the wind and get after the UF quarterbacks are you? That's akin to a Martinez secondary playing press. Don't hold your breath.
 
#47
#47
CAVPUT said:
You're not really expecting Banks to throw caution to the wind and get after the UF quarterbacks are you? That's akin to a Martinez secondary playing press. Don't hold your breath.
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UF ran the ball down our throat last year. Stop that first. Mertz is not a bad QB though and will find guys if he has time.
 
#50
#50
livefaith said:
Well, it's been a lucky 30 years or more I guess.
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It kinda has some years. Think of all the stupid turnovers in the Fulmer years. Of course, gator fans always say "hard hits cause turnovers" but they got a lot of lucky bounces over the years.

Back to last year. They went 5-7. Our game was an anomaly, but our OL was an absolute **** show that game and they got a lucky (yes lucky!) int off of Milton who was hit as he threw and it went right to one of their guys. Yes, the hit caused the TO, but the pass could have gone anywhere.

Let me put it this way...is there anyone...ANYONE! who thought Florida SHOULD have beaten us last year?

Whereas in most years, expectations were pretty even or skewed in their favor.

Might be interesting to see how frequently we have been favorites in the series since 1995, or the last 28 years. My guess is that 8 times is high.

In the post Fulmer era? My guess is 3, tops.

Neither of which includes this year.
 
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