View: There is a generational war looming in the GOP

#1
lawgator1

lawgator1

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#1
With Huckabee announcing he is not going to run, I've been listening to a number of commentators (both left and right) about the lack of a clear front runner for the GOP nomintation in 2012. It seems like the concensus is that there are two types of candidates out there -- those who will focus on the economy and those who are more traditional, values/social policy oriented Republicans.

Now, I find such commentary odd in that it seems obvious to me that the fiscal conservatives in the field (even just potentially at this point) far outnumber the values oriented candidates.

So why is it that there seems such a clear division? I think the answer is generational.

This is obviously not 100 %, but generally it seems that younger Republicans, particularly under 45 years old, let's say, are very focused on the economy. They have jobs to worry about, families to support, careers to follow, and they look long term and complain that their tax dollars, at a time when they are earning the most in their lives, is going to fund programs that will not be sustainable when they reach retirement.

On the other hand, the older Republicans, with reitrement relatively close, and having grown up in an era where being a member of the GOP meant a focus on social and values issues, worry about getting what they think they have already earned -- full retirement benefits. Plus, they want to continue to vote for candidates who make social policy and values issues a top priority.

Think about it.

The board membership here is pretty young. With a few notable exceptions, there aren't many of you GOP members on here that want to talk a lot about abortion and homosexuality. Doesn't mean you don't have an opinion and doesn't mean you don't share the same position as those who are more devoted to those issues.

But, in terms of what you place as the highest priorty, its definitely reform of entitlements. I just think that older Republicans are not as interested in that, and in part I think that's because they want to keep their benefits.

I have no way of knowing for sure, but it would not surprise me if GOP support for the Ryan plan follows a pretty tilted line based on age. The younger they are, the more liklely they would be to support it.

So what does this mean? I think it means that the GOP primary is going to be one of two things. Either all of the candidates will avoid stepping on the toes of the other generation's candidate. Or, at some point, someone in the values camp is going to assail the Ryan plan for what it does to those within ten years or so of retirement, and paint the economics candidate as a Washington insider type.

I suspect that, in the end, the candidates focused on fiscal policy will win the battle.
 
#2
#2
I don't believe that these ideals are mutually exclusive of one another, nor can any generational difference be so clearly defined, if such even exists. But my views are somewhat limited, myself being a liberal yellow-dog Democrat, and all.

Otherwise, it's an uneventful hypothesis.
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#3
#3
Tenacious D said:
I don't believe that these ideals are mutually exclusive of one another, nor can any generational difference be so clearly defined, if such even exists. But my views are somewhat limited, myself being a liberal yellow-dog Democrat, and all.

Otherwise, it's an uneventful hypothesis.
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I agree that they are not mutually exclusive. But, it seems inevitable that the younger people in the party would be more willing in their self interest to drastically reform SS and Medicare than those over 50, who would oppose it in their own self-interest.
 
#4
#4
LG, you almost put your finger on it... but I can't buy the argument that older Repubs want to keep the entitlemens going. I'm sure there are some, but the majority want them to go away just as much as the younger folks.

There is a divide between the fiscal and social conservatives, but it is divided along geographic lines more than it is age.
 
#5
#5
I'd argue the divide is along educational boundaries that coincide with geographical ones
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#7
#7
This reminds me a whole lot of the way the Democratic field looked in 1992 against an incumbent Republican President. You had your left wingers, your centrists and your establishment candidates and no clear frontrunner emerged until well after Iowa and New Hampshire. But we all know how that ended up turning out.
 
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#8
#8
lawgator1 said:
...On the other hand, the older Republicans, with reitrement relatively close, and having grown up in an era where being a member of the GOP meant a focus on social and values issues, worry about getting what they think they have already earned -- full retirement benefits. Plus, they want to continue to vote for candidates who make social policy and values issues a top priority.

Think about it.

The board membership here is pretty young. With a few notable exceptions, there aren't many of you GOP members on here that want to talk a lot about abortion and homosexuality. Doesn't mean you don't have an opinion and doesn't mean you don't share the same position as those who are more devoted to those issues.

But, in terms of what you place as the highest priorty, its definitely reform of entitlements. I just think that older Republicans are not as interested in that, and in part I think that's because they want to keep their benefits.

I have no way of knowing for sure, but it would not surprise me if GOP support for the Ryan plan follows a pretty tilted line based on age. The younger they are, the more liklely they would be to support it.

So what does this mean? I think it means that the GOP primary is going to be one of two things. Either all of the candidates will avoid stepping on the toes of the other generation's candidate. Or, at some point, someone in the values camp is going to assail the Ryan plan for what it does to those within ten years or so of retirement, and paint the economics candidate as a Washington insider type.

I suspect that, in the end, the candidates focused on fiscal policy will win the battle.
Click to expand...

I am in the older group. I received a call from the GOP last week asking for a donation. I told the gentlemen that he would not get another penny from me until I see that they are focused on the economy, jobs, lower taxes, home values, etc.; rather than gay marriage, abortion, etc..
 
#10
#10
IPorange said:
Look at the % with a college degree of states you think of as socially conservative. It's a pretty strong correlation, from Alaska to Alabama.
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I would counter that nonsense with the fact that you have plenty of college educated simpletons in the Bay Area, Hollywood, NYC etc. that don't have a enough common sense to know their left hand from their right.
 
#11
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Rasputin_Vol said:
I would counter that nonsense with the fact that you have plenty of college educated simpletons in the Bay Area, Hollywood, NYC etc. that don't have a enough common sense to know their left hand from their right.
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How dies that counter what I said? Socially conservative states are the statistically least educated. So you question the value of education? With your (politically informed) opinion?
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#12
#12
I see validity in both LG and IP's assertions. My immediate family is split: Father hardline Nixonian Rep., Mother liberal Dem, me in middle and bro. pretty hard right. All educated. Politics was a lively debate growing up. Never heard my father utter a word against Repubs until the past year. He and bro. both would only go as far a "dissatisfied" but that spoke volumes. If the Right can ever throw off the chains placed upon them by the "Moral Majority" crew and stick to traditional conservative causes such as true fiscal responsibilty, I think many that now consider themselves "independent" would take them much more seriously.
 
#13
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Rasputin_Vol said:
LG, you almost put your finger on it... but I can't buy the argument that older Repubs want to keep the entitlemens going. I'm sure there are some, but the majority want them to go away just as much as the younger folks.

There is a divide between the fiscal and social conservatives, but it is divided along geographic lines more than it is age.
Click to expand...


That makes some sense, too. If you are right, that is less of a threat to the GOP than if there arises a strong voice on the part of the over 50 Republican bunch that I theorize is not keen on the Ryan plan.


VolDad said:
I am in the older group. I received a call from the GOP last week asking for a donation. I told the gentlemen that he would not get another penny from me until I see that they are focused on the economy, jobs, lower taxes, home values, etc.; rather than gay marriage, abortion, etc..
Click to expand...


May I inquire as to whether you are 50+ ?

The items you list in terms of fiscal matters are not necessarily the ones I am talking about. Jobs, lower taxes, and home values are things everyone are generally concerned about. I was referring specifically to the proposed reforms of SS and Medicare.

How do you feel about those if ultimately the plan is to reduce your SS benefits and make you pay approximately $6500 a year to add to what the feds provide for purchase of an individual health insurance policy? (And I ask not to make that the topic of discussion, but rather to query whether the older Republicans are going to be unhappy with the younger people who want to pay less out of their own pockets to sustain those programs).
 
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#15
#15
droski said:
#100 of LG's "wishful thinking about the gop" threads
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I truly do not think this is "wishful" and wonder whether others agree that the values branch and the fiscal responsibility branch might have some tension. I am sure there are similar schisms within the Dem party, as well.
 
#16
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lawgator1 said:
..May I inquire as to whether you are 50+ ?

The items you list in terms of fiscal matters are not necessarily the ones I am talking about. Jobs, lower taxes, and home values are things everyone are generally concerned about. I was referring specifically to the proposed reforms of SS and Medicare.

How do you feel about those if ultimately the plan is to reduce your SS benefits and make you pay approximately $6500 a year to add to what the feds provide for purchase of an individual health insurance policy? (And I ask not to make that the topic of discussion, but rather to query whether the older Republicans are going to be unhappy with the younger people who want to pay less out of their own pockets to sustain those programs).
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Over 50. SS and Medicare have been unsustainable for a long time. I made alternate plans (like everyone should have been doing; if they have not then shame on them).
 
#17
#17
droski said:
#100 of LG's "wishful thinking about the gop" threads
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Do you see any fractures in the GOP? Seems LG is onto something. Repubs. I know are not concerned much, if at all, with the far right social agenda. It will either be pushed aside or, if one has to continue to pass the abortion/gay marriage litmus test, the GOP will not find a viable canidate.
 
#18
#18
Rasputin_Vol said:
LG, you almost put your finger on it... but I can't buy the argument that older Repubs want to keep the entitlemens going. I'm sure there are some, but the majority want them to go away just as much as the younger folks.

There is a divide between the fiscal and social conservatives, but it is divided along geographic lines more than it is age.
Click to expand...

i don't think there is a big divide as the media says. most older conservative have saved up for retirement and they see the need to lower our debt.
 
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#19
VolDad said:
Over 50. SS and Medicare have been unsustainable for a long time. I made alternate plans (like everyone should have been doing; if they have not then shame on them).
Click to expand...


Ok, glad to hear you are personally in a good position.

Assume you have friends in the same age bracket who you discuss politics with. Do you know any that have not planned as well as you have and if so what is their position on Ryan plan?

I am 47 and have some conservative friends across the country who are decidedly middle class or even lower middle class. And while they are very interested in the social issues, they don't seem nearly as attentive to the fiscal policy issues.

I confess, however, that I have not asked any what they think of the Ryan plan, in particular.
 
#20
#20
CSVol said:
Do you see any fractures in the GOP? Seems LG is onto something. Repubs. I know are not concerned much, if at all, with the far right social agenda. It will either be pushed aside or, if one has to continue to pass the abortion/gay marriage litmus test, the GOP will not find a viable canidate.
Click to expand...

you can focus on an economy and social aspect of running a campaign or governing the same way. the economy does need to be the focus and any republican running will do just that. it should be pretty easy to compare hussein's philosophy with the republicans.
 
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#21
lawgator1 said:
Ok, glad to hear you are personally in a good position.

Assume you have friends in the same age bracket who you discuss politics with. Do you know any that have not planned as well as you have and if so what is their position on Ryan plan?

I am 47 and have some conservative friends across the country who are decidedly middle class or even lower middle class. And while they are very interested in the social issues, they don't seem nearly as attentive to the fiscal policy issues.

I confess, however, that I have not asked any what they think of the Ryan plan, in particular.
Click to expand...

you consider your gardner a friend? :p
 
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#22
joevol320 said:
you can focus on an economy and social aspect of running a campaign or governing the same way. the economy does need to be the focus and any republican running will do just that. it should be pretty easy to compare hussein's philosophy with the republicans.
Click to expand...

Agree the economy must be the focus. My point is that aspects of GOP social agenda pushed by some conservatives will alienate independents both parties need to win.
 
#23
#23
lawgator1 said:
Ok, glad to hear you are personally in a good position.

Assume you have friends in the same age bracket who you discuss politics with. Do you know any that have not planned as well as you have and if so what is their position on Ryan plan?

I am 47 and have some conservative friends across the country who are decidedly middle class or even lower middle class. And while they are very interested in the social issues, they don't seem nearly as attentive to the fiscal policy issues.

I confess, however, that I have not asked any what they think of the Ryan plan, in particular.
Click to expand...

I would have to imagine those that have not planned well, or took the responsibility on themselves to protect their future will not like the Ryan Plan, or any other plan that cuts these benefits. Sustainable, or not. I doubt that is groundbreaking info to anyone. That takes the discussion in many other directions.

Pardon my intrusion VD :hi:, just thought I would pitch that out there.
 
#24
#24
how many threads have you made that indicate the republican party is about to fall apart at it seems?
 
#25
#25
they should push the social parts to the states and concentrate of fiscal at a national level
 
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