Vols Guaranteed a Spot?

#26
#26
VFL-82-JP said:
You really are over-complicating it.

If we beat Vandy, we're in.

If we somehow lose to Vandy, we're out.

Nothing more to it than that. The only real variable to consider, assuming we beat Vandy on Saturday, is whether enough chaos happens in the current Top 10 these next two weekends to move us up into the home field advantage seeds (#5 through #8). Right now, we would be just below that at about #9.

Go Vols!
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I agree except...... What if we something terrible happens and a catastrophic injury happens. I feel beating Vandy should be enough but last years committee at least gives room for doubt to pull the plug on a team if a QB1 goes down.
 
#27
#27
VFL-82-JP said:
You really are over-complicating it.

If we beat Vandy, we're in.

If we somehow lose to Vandy, we're out.

Nothing more to it than that. The only real variable to consider, assuming we beat Vandy on Saturday, is whether enough chaos happens in the current Top 10 these next two weekends to move us up into the home field advantage seeds (#5 through #8). Right now, we would be just below that at about #9.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...
this
 
#28
#28
DeepSpringsVol said:
I agree except...... What if we something terrible happens and a catastrophic injury happens. I feel beating Vandy should be enough but last years committee at least gives room for doubt to pull the plug on a team if a QB1 goes down.
Click to expand...

Last year was different. With only 4 teams in the playoffs that leaves almost no room for error and Brock Glenn was 8 for 21 for 55 yards in his one game. More leeway with 12 teams.
 
#29
#29
DeepSpringsVol said:
I agree except...... What if we something terrible happens and a catastrophic injury happens. I feel beating Vandy should be enough but last years committee at least gives room for doubt to pull the plug on a team if a QB1 goes down.
Click to expand...
The only IF is Vandy the rest is done.
 
#31
#31
TheOrange&White said:
I asked this question in another thread, but wanted to get some more insight. I was trying to see if there was a way we still got left out of the playoffs. It seems like no, but I’m not an expert. Here are the scenarios I see (this is assuming we beat Vandy):

1) Texas beats A&M
—knocks out A&M
—leaves us 3rd in the SEC and top 10 in CFP
—even if they take both TX and GA, we’re in the playoffs

2) A&M beats Texas
—getting beat by the #15 team (lower now after Auburn loss) would drop Texas below us in the CFP rankings
—if GA wins, A&M would most likely be out even though they participated in the SEC champ game due to 4 losses; this would leave GA, Vols, and Texas in
—if A&M won, the committee would still prob put GA in even with 3 losses because they’re GA and they at least played in the championship game and they’d put A&M in as a conf. champ; we would still get in b/c we’re ahead of Texas

Does this sound right? Please let me know your thoughts. I’m just hoping that if we take care of business in Nashville, there’s not a way the committee can screw us. GB🍊
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Yes, but the only scenario we could get screwed on is the last. If Tamu beats both Texas and uga, then they may take Texas, uga and Tamu. They will have to take Tamu.

Unlikely, but to me, the first two are virtual locks, the last might cause us to get screwed.

Regardless, we need to beat vandy.
 
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#37
#37
TheOrange&White said:
I asked this question in another thread, but wanted to get some more insight. I was trying to see if there was a way we still got left out of the playoffs. It seems like no, but I’m not an expert. Here are the scenarios I see (this is assuming we beat Vandy):

1) Texas beats A&M
—knocks out A&M
—leaves us 3rd in the SEC and top 10 in CFP
—even if they take both TX and GA, we’re in the playoffs

2) A&M beats Texas
—getting beat by the #15 team (lower now after Auburn loss) would drop Texas below us in the CFP rankings
—if GA wins, A&M would most likely be out even though they participated in the SEC champ game due to 4 losses; this would leave GA, Vols, and Texas in
—if A&M won, the committee would still prob put GA in even with 3 losses because they’re GA and they at least played in the championship game and they’d put A&M in as a conf. champ; we would still get in b/c we’re ahead of Texas

Does this sound right? Please let me know your thoughts. I’m just hoping that if we take care of business in Nashville, there’s not a way the committee can screw us. GB🍊
Click to expand...
No matter what happens: if Tennessee beats Vanderbilt they are 10-2 and In the College Football Playoff🧡

Georgia could lose to GA Tech and then win the
SEC at 10-3 and they are in
Texas AM could beat Texas move to 9-3 win the SEC and go 10-3 in (Georgia out at 9-4)
Texas beats AM then loses to UGA again in the SEC TITLE. 11-2 ( In) UGA 11-2 (In) A&M 9-4 (Out)

Even if UGA losses in Atlanta to and 12-1
Texas team by a field goal after blowing out Ga Tech by 50 points the previous week.
They may get in at 10-3
12-1 Texas, 10-3 UGA, UT 10-2 (All IN)
Ole Miss 9-3, Texas AM 9-3, Bama 9-3 ( Out)
Texas 10-2, UGA 10-3 (SEC Champion) Texas AM 10-3 (SEC loser) Tennessee 10-2 (ALL 4 IN)
 
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#38
#38
I think we will know for sure based on the rankings that come out tomorrow.

I'm hopeful we are in a position where we just need to beat Vandy and the teams that play in the conference championship games are such that we remain in.

We'll see how it goes.
 
#39
#39
And I think most are thinking we move up without someone jumping us like we should and we should be above Indiana as well - but the committee has a lot of love for the Big 10 these days.
 
#41
#41
HuntlandVolinColo said:
Don't forget we still have 2 more weeks of butt cheek clenching games with Rivalry Week and Conference Championship games.

Miami losing to Syracuse
Clemson losing to SCAR
B12/ACC runner up probably having 4 losses.
Good chance Mich finds a way to take a dump on OSU
GT gets a shot against UGA
Iron bowl/Egg bowl
USC sucks but they usually give Notre Douse fits
Oregon/Washington
aTm/Texas
KState/Iowa State
Arky/Mizzou
SMU/Cal
just to name a few

Enjoy the Chaos!
Click to expand...

GT and UGA is Friday, we play an early game on Saturday. I'm hoping for chaos that we can enjoy!
 
#42
#42
TheOrange&White said:
I asked this question in another thread, but wanted to get some more insight. I was trying to see if there was a way we still got left out of the playoffs. It seems like no, but I’m not an expert. Here are the scenarios I see (this is assuming we beat Vandy):

1) Texas beats A&M
—knocks out A&M
—leaves us 3rd in the SEC and top 10 in CFP
—even if they take both TX and GA, we’re in the playoffs

2) A&M beats Texas
—getting beat by the #15 team (lower now after Auburn loss) would drop Texas below us in the CFP rankings
—if GA wins, A&M would most likely be out even though they participated in the SEC champ game due to 4 losses; this would leave GA, Vols, and Texas in
—if A&M won, the committee would still prob put GA in even with 3 losses because they’re GA and they at least played in the championship game and they’d put A&M in as a conf. champ; we would still get in b/c we’re ahead of Texas

Does this sound right? Please let me know your thoughts. I’m just hoping that if we take care of business in Nashville, there’s not a way the committee can screw us. GB🍊
Click to expand...

We are fine regardless. Texas losing to A&M would likely leave Texas out of it if A&M went on to still a playoff spot by winning the SEC. The resume of Tennessee vs Texas at 10-2 is no contest. Our best win would be Bama with a win over Vandy. Reason I highlight Vandy is that would be Texas' best win. I saw another graphic were "good win" for Texas listed Arkansas while its a "bad loss" for us. The math doesn't math there.

A&M beating Texas means Texas would not have a single win over a ranked team this year. We trump Texas on the record
 
#43
#43
TheOrange&White said:
I asked this question in another thread, but wanted to get some more insight. I was trying to see if there was a way we still got left out of the playoffs. It seems like no, but I’m not an expert. Here are the scenarios I see (this is assuming we beat Vandy):

1) Texas beats A&M
—knocks out A&M
—leaves us 3rd in the SEC and top 10 in CFP
—even if they take both TX and GA, we’re in the playoffs

2) A&M beats Texas
—getting beat by the #15 team (lower now after Auburn loss) would drop Texas below us in the CFP rankings
—if GA wins, A&M would most likely be out even though they participated in the SEC champ game due to 4 losses; this would leave GA, Vols, and Texas in
—if A&M won, the committee would still prob put GA in even with 3 losses because they’re GA and they at least played in the championship game and they’d put A&M in as a conf. champ; we would still get in b/c we’re ahead of Texas

Does this sound right? Please let me know your thoughts. I’m just hoping that if we take care of business in Nashville, there’s not a way the committee can screw us. GB🍊
Click to expand...
Beat a dangerous vandy team and we are in. I have my doubts about the out come. Just because.
 
#44
#44
JMSqb11 said:
We are fine regardless. Texas losing to A&M would likely leave Texas out of it if A&M went on to still a playoff spot by winning the SEC. The resume of Tennessee vs Texas at 10-2 is no contest. Our best win would be Bama with a win over Vandy. Reason I highlight Vandy is that would be Texas' best win. I saw another graphic were "good win" for Texas listed Arkansas while its a "bad loss" for us. The math doesn't math there.

A&M beating Texas means Texas would not have a single win over a ranked team this year. We trump Texas on the record
Click to expand...
Texas would get in at 10-2. That scenario would probably make for 4 SEC teams.
 
#45
#45
BanditVol said:
Yes, but the only scenario we could get screwed on is the last. If Tamu beats both Texas and uga, then they may take Texas, uga and Tamu. They will have to take Tamu.

Unlikely, but to me, the first two are virtual locks, the last might cause us to get screwed.

Regardless, we need to beat vandy.
Click to expand...
I’m hoping we win and Texas wins to make this much simpler. A&M home game at night could be a factor though.
 
#46
#46
JMSqb11 said:
We are fine regardless. Texas losing to A&M would likely leave Texas out of it if A&M went on to still a playoff spot by winning the SEC. The resume of Tennessee vs Texas at 10-2 is no contest. Our best win would be Bama with a win over Vandy. Reason I highlight Vandy is that would be Texas' best win. I saw another graphic were "good win" for Texas listed Arkansas while its a "bad loss" for us. The math doesn't math there.

A&M beating Texas means Texas would not have a single win over a ranked team this year. We trump Texas on the record
Click to expand...
This definitely makes sense. I’ll be interested to see where we’re ranked tomorrow.
 
#47
#47
I would rather be kicked in the groin than lose to Vanderbilt on Saturday. The very real prospect of losing this game has me nauseous. It's gonna be an ugly dog fight too. Heupel will play it conservative.
 
#48
#48
LittleVol said:
No matter what happens: if Tennessee beats Vanderbilt they are 10-2 and In the College Football Playoff🧡

Georgia could lose to GA Tech and then win the
SEC at 10-3 and they are in
Texas AM could beat Texas move to 9-3 win the SEC and go 10-3 in (Georgia out at 9-4)
Texas beats AM then loses to UGA again in the SEC TITLE. 11-2 ( In) UGA 11-2 (In) A&M 9-4 (Out)

Even if UGA losses in Atlanta to and 12-1
Texas team by a field goal after blowing out Ga Tech by 50 points the previous week.
They may get in at 10-3
12-1 Texas, 10-3 UGA, UT 10-2 (All IN)
Ole Miss 9-3, Texas AM 9-3, Bama 9-3 ( Out)
Texas 10-2, UGA 10-3 (SEC Champion) Texas AM 10-3 (SEC loser) Tennessee 10-2 (ALL 4 IN)
Click to expand...
Thanks for the breakdown. Like I mentioned in another reply, Texas beating A&M would simplify everything, but College Station at night will be tough, especially seeing how SEC teams have done on the road this season.
 
#50
#50
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
Texas would get in at 10-2. That scenario would probably make for 4 SEC teams.
Click to expand...
The loser of both the ACC and BIG12 conference championship games will be screaming that they should be in. Especially an 11-2 Miami.
The best thing that could happen to all conferences is for Notre Dame to lose to USC.
 
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