War in Ukraine

#37,577
#37,577
Orangeburst said:
This clown show admit that is leading us in these times..They will **** it up..Errything is disastrous with this admin.
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Europe isn’t looking for us to do anything but write checks and ship weapon systems. The idiot in chief’s admin will not factor into any deals. Germany will lead that role with France not far behind. Which is how it should be happening since it’s their damn problem.
 
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#37,578
#37,578
NorthDallas40 said:
Soon only China and India will buy the oil at a very steep discount… until their production infrastructure breaks and they can’t repair it any longer… and their nukes will rot in the silos so that they don’t have that either.

Russia will become a footnote on the world stage.
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It aint breaking at at $80-$100/ barrel.

I heard something profound today on Wilkow (the man BTW). Our oil companies expended vast capital for the oil recovery revolution. Took a long time and a lot of capital, but not possible with this admin policy. The argument that Presidential policy cannot affect oil pricing is so stupid. Maybe not todays oil prices, but certainly tomorrows.
 
#37,579
#37,579
NorthDallas40 said:
Soon only China and India will buy the oil at a very steep discount… until their production infrastructure breaks and they can’t repair it any longer… and their nukes will rot in the silos so that they don’t have that either.

Russia will become a footnote on the world stage.
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I would bet most of their nukes are inoperable now. There's no way they've been well maintained.
 
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#37,580
#37,580
Orangeburst said:
It aint breaking at at $80-$100/ barrel.

I heard something profound today on Wilkow (the man BTW). Our oil companies expended vast capital for the oil recovery revolution. Took a long time and a lot of capital, but not possible with this admin policy. The argument that Presidential policy cannot affect oil pricing is so stupid. Maybe not todays oil prices, but certainly tomorrows.
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All oil exploration and production services companies have left Russia. The morons aren’t smart enough to develop their own production capacity. Over time they won’t be able to fill any real demand.

Europe finally had a painful wake up call and will move away from Russian gas. It will be painful in the short term but they will pivot to other supplies in time.

Oddly Venezuela might come out of this smelling like a rose with their proven untapped reserves of gas and oil.
 
#37,581
#37,581
Hunerwadel said:
I would bet most of their nukes are inoperable now. There's no way they've been well maintained.
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That is an assumption without any supported validity. Even if so..25% operational effectiveness is something to ponder. You launch thousands..will not matter where they hit with some hundreds of miles of CEP.
 
#37,582
#37,582
NorthDallas40 said:
All oil exploration and production services companies have left Russia. The morons aren’t smart enough to develop their own production capacity. Over time they won’t be able to fill any real demand.

Europe finally had a painful wake up call and will move away from Russian gas. It will be painful in the short term but they will pivot to other supplies in time.

Oddly Venezuela might come out of this smelling like a rose with their proven untapped reserves of gas and oil.
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The CCP will be a White Horse...You know this.
Russia doesn't even require fracking
 
#37,584
#37,584
Orangeburst said:
That is an assumption without any supported validity. Even if so..25% operational effectiveness is something to ponder. You launch thousands..will not matter where they hit with some hundreds of miles of CEP.
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Oh I can assure you they are highly temperamental and needy devices seeking constant attention.
 
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#37,588
#37,588
Are we going to make assumptions that Russian nukes are not effective...all for Ukraine?
Seems dismissive of a huge elephant for an assumption.
 
#37,590
#37,590
Orangeburst said:
I respect you option as it is your field. But was not older more analogue tech less temperamental with gyros and INS?
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It’s all temperamental as 💩 and I have no first hand knowledge in the nuke field. But all military hardware, regardless who made it, requires maintenance. Liquid boosters have finite pressurization/depressurization cycles. Solid rocket boosters will decay over time and not provide required thrust. Nav and guidance require maintenance and spare parts.

At least Russia won’t have to go out of house for their tubes. They are about the only supplier left for that stuff as I’m sure you know.
 
#37,592
#37,592
NorthDallas40 said:
It’s all temperamental as 💩 and I have no first hand knowledge in the nuke field. But all military hardware, regardless who made it, requires maintenance. Liquid boosters have finite pressurization/depressurization cycles. Solid rocket boosters will decay over time and not provide required thrust. Nav and guidance require maintenance and spare parts.

At least Russia won’t have to go out of house for their tubes. They are about the only supplier left for that stuff as I’m sure you know.
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Well I did give a CEP of hundreds of miles in my post
 
#37,594
#37,594
Orangeburst said:
Are we going to make assumptions that Russian nukes are not effective...all for Ukraine?
Seems dismissive of a huge elephant for an assumption.
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I don’t see how Russian nukes factor into anything related to Ukraine honestly. If Russia chooses to launch because they are butt hurt there really isn’t much we can do about it but pray THAAD and our other systems are ready
 
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#37,595
#37,595
hog88 said:
But how well have they been maintained?
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Well we still maintain 50 year old Minuteman with retros and upgrades. If anything the Russians have newer rockets the past 1-2 decades. I dont know the shelf life of solid boosters.
 
#37,596
#37,596
Orangeburst said:
That is an assumption without any supported validity. Even if so..25% operational effectiveness is something to ponder. You launch thousands..will not matter where they hit with some hundreds of miles of CEP.
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I certainly did not intend to suggest they aren't a nuclear threat even If only 10% of their force is operational. Just judging by the incompetence on display in Ukraine I don't believe for a minute that they are properly maintaining their nuclear arsenal.
 
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#37,597
#37,597
Orangeburst said:
Well we still maintain 50 year old Minuteman with retros and upgrades. If anything the Russians have newer rockets the past 1-2 decades. I dont know the shelf life of solid boosters.
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So after the fall of the Soviet Union the Russian military completely fell into disrepair. They simply didn’t have the money. Their navy was rotting in port at their moorings. I feel pretty certain their nuke capacity is highly diminished but they don’t need a bunch of them.

I posted a link earlier about their only carrier that has been in dry dock since 2017. It may never sail again. The bastards are completely inept.
 
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#37,598
#37,598
Hunerwadel said:
I certainly did not intend to suggest they aren't a nuclear threat even If only 10% of their force is operational. Just judging by the incompetence on display in Ukraine I don't believe for a minute that they are properly maintaining their nuclear arsenal.
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And our crews are becoming less professional every decade. Heck..the short time I was a pipeline operator in 1990,,we partied and had chicks in the gate. Wild AF
 
#37,599
#37,599
hog88 said:
The oligarchs will fight it out trying to replace Putin. They will try to settle scores, military loyalty will be put to the test since the Russian officer corp is completely corrupt. No way there is a peaceful transition of power. It will be a hard fall for Russia.
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🎶🎵Mister we could use a man like Boris Yeltsin again 🎶🎵
 
#37,600
#37,600
NorthDallas40 said:
The end game is Russia takes a big chunk of Ukraine but is ostracized to the point they assume their rightful role of second rate backwater former world power now third world country. Both Ukraine and Russia lose. The fall for Russia will be much worse however.
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And an ostracized Russia is forced into becoming a subservient vassal state to China. Absolute DISASTER for the US and Europe (not to mention Japan)
 
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