War in Ukraine

[LouderVol]

And what, precisely, was the reason *why* Russia was never going to attack NATO?

Do tell.

because Putin knows we would beat him in a conventional fight. He is just reinterested in reforming what he can of the USSR, which means bullying smaller, weaker nations to look tough. NATO has always been the Russian boogey man, who never was a threat, used to sell their need to cling to power.

 

[hog88]

India, Pakistan and Israel for starters.

Your theory is crap. If we gave Ukraine nuclear weapons right now, it literally could spark WWIII.

Exactly when has India and/or Pakistan invaded each other? Sure they have had some border skirmishes in Kashmier but the last one was in 1999 and Pakistan hadn't fielded an operational nuclear delivery system at that time. The last state invasion of Israel was the Yom Kippur war in 1973 which took 20 days for the Israelis to rout the Egyptians and Syrians, plus it's still not clear if Israel had operational nuclear weapons at the time.

So in short try again. Nuclear armed states do not get invaded.

 

[MontyPython]

Exactly when has India and/or Pakistan invaded each other? Sure they have had some border skirmishes in Kashmier but the last one was in 1999 and Pakistan hadn't fielded an operational nuclear delivery system at that time. The last state invasion of Israel was the Yom Kippur war in 1973 which took 20 days for the Israelis to rout the Egyptians and Syrians, plus it's still not clear if Israel had operational nuclear weapons at the time.

So in short try again. Nuclear armed states do not get invaded.

So let's get Ukraine some nukes STAT.

 

[hog88]

So let's get Ukraine some nukes STAT.

Thank Clinton for them not having them.

 

[MontyPython]

you seem to be selling the Ras argument of the US calling the shots in Ukraine. I never have. we are offering advice, input, and intelligence; Ukraine still has to take and use all of that appropriately.

we encouraged that strategy because its all we knew. We have seen multiple articles coming out stating about how the western nations have been quietly adjusting their own strategies based on the results they are seeing from Ukraine.

The old soviet strategy wouldn't have worked for Ukraine. that relies on just having more than your opponent, and being able to push in massive waves. Ukraine would never be able to outnumber the Russians. The NATO strat doesn't rely on numbers, so it made sense from that stand point. and we haven't come anywhere close to arming/training their entire army in western strats. Its just been some units. We likely hoped it would be enough for break thrus, but the thing about war is you never actually know what is going to be enough or going to work at all. one major pitfall is our reliance on air superiority, the combined arms approach can work great if you actually have combined arms. right now Ukraine doesn't have the air portion. that's a reality the west hasn't had to deal with before. our strategy and generals aren't perfect, and I don't think the UKR ones are inherently better either.

I have been arguing for the WW1 Canadian approach, it was effective against a defense in depth, against the Germans in WW1, and we are seeing similar defensive strategies from Russia now. Look for local weaknesses, make small gains. Consolidate gains before pushing. Never get dog headed about specific objectives, but keep a constant but light pressure while continuously looking for weaknesses. The western strategy of a grand attack just invites death against a defense established enough to have multiple layers, the impetus dies out, and without that the troops are vulnerable.

and why can't it be both? your two options aren't prohibitive of each other, and both go to explain the other.

I have said from the beginning this is the Winter War and not World War 2. people kept assuming that because there was an inherent "weakness" or obsolesce from old strategies or equipment that it would no longer work at all. something else I have been pointing out the flawed assumption of.

Excellent points.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Looks like Europe has found an cheap and reliable alternative source of gas. Cold winter postponed this year I suppose...

Nigeria-Morocco Pipeline Inches Toward Providing Gas to Europe

The Europeans are banking on getting gas from Africa to replace Russian gas... Looks like one of these pipeline projects will be in jeopardy now if Niger flips...

Trans-Saharan gas pipeline - Wikipedia

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Another $10 billion to Zelensky.

White House May Request Over $10Bln In Extra Ukraine Funding, US Disaster Relief - Reports

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

How the Ukraine War Finally Ends: Putin Sick With Cancer And Dies?

 

[Franklin Pierce]

Tuberville says Ukraine can’t win war: ‘It’s a junior high team playing a college team’

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said Monday he did not think Ukraine could win the war against Russia and compared Ukraine’s efforts to a junior high team trying to defeat a college team in a hypothetical sports match.

In an interview with Fox News’s Laura Ingraham on Monday night, Tuberville touted his record voting against funding for Ukraine and said that, while he supported the country’s efforts over Russia, he thought Ukraine was outmatched and that no amount of funding would change that.

“I haven’t voted for a dime to send Ukraine,” Tuberville told Ingraham. “I’m for Ukraine. Russia should have never done this. I was in Ukraine three months with President [Volodymyr] Zelensky before this started. They were already fighting to that point.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4143533-tuberville-says-ukraine-cant-win-war-against-russia/

 

[MercyPercy]

Tuberville says Ukraine can’t win war: ‘It’s a junior high team playing a college team’

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said Monday he did not think Ukraine could win the war against Russia and compared Ukraine’s efforts to a junior high team trying to defeat a college team in a hypothetical sports match.

In an interview with Fox News’s Laura Ingraham on Monday night, Tuberville touted his record voting against funding for Ukraine and said that, while he supported the country’s efforts over Russia, he thought Ukraine was outmatched and that no amount of funding would change that.

“I haven’t voted for a dime to send Ukraine,” Tuberville told Ingraham. “I’m for Ukraine. Russia should have never done this. I was in Ukraine three months with President [Volodymyr] Zelensky before this started. They were already fighting to that point.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4143533-tuberville-says-ukraine-cant-win-war-against-russia/

It's been pretty embarrassing for the college team in this analogy.

 

[BeardedVol]

Tuberville says Ukraine can’t win war: ‘It’s a junior high team playing a college team’

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said Monday he did not think Ukraine could win the war against Russia and compared Ukraine’s efforts to a junior high team trying to defeat a college team in a hypothetical sports match.

In an interview with Fox News’s Laura Ingraham on Monday night, Tuberville touted his record voting against funding for Ukraine and said that, while he supported the country’s efforts over Russia, he thought Ukraine was outmatched and that no amount of funding would change that.

“I haven’t voted for a dime to send Ukraine,” Tuberville told Ingraham. “I’m for Ukraine. Russia should have never done this. I was in Ukraine three months with President [Volodymyr] Zelensky before this started. They were already fighting to that point.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4143533-tuberville-says-ukraine-cant-win-war-against-russia/

Tuberville isn't intelligent enough to actually comprehend any of the intelligence briefings that he's been privy to.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

It's been pretty embarrassing for the college team in this analogy.

What are you basing this on?

 

[BeardedVol]

What are you basing this on?

3-day SMO still going on 18 months later.

We've been over this, you can't escape reality.

 

[tbh]

It's been pretty embarrassing for the college team in this analogy.

Following along that train of thought, here's a question to ponder: which is Putin most similar to in this case: Butch Jones, Derek Dooley, or Pruitt?

I'd lean towards Beldar...he's stuck in the past in terms of strategy, he positions his "troops" in a way where success is unlikely, and the majority of his hires are either morons, shady, or both.

 

[AM64]

Makes perfect sense as how a number of African countries with despotic rulers may get embroiled in WWIII. One despot loves another and Putin needs all the friends he can get right now.

Just put a fence up and let the Africans fight it out. Pre-colonialism didn't work, colonialism didn't work - although it did produce some resources, post-colonialism doesn't work - although some countries stayed peaceful long enough for non-African companies to make them semi-prosperous. Tribalism in all it's glory. Some things are apparently just not fixable.

 

[AM64]

depends on what they do with them.

Obviously I think Lithuania has the right to determine who gets to live there, assuming they aren't citizens. If they deport them, either to Russia, or some other nation willing to accept them, I am fine. But if they are imprissoned, or see their other rights reduced somehow, that is a different story.

The article said Lithuania planned to strip those people of permanent residency permits; I assume they plan to export them.

 

[Orangeburst]

Just put a fence up and let the Africans fight it out. Pre-colonialism didn't work, colonialism didn't work - although it did produce some resources, post-colonialism doesn't work - although some countries stayed peaceful long enough for non-African companies to make them semi-prosperous. Tribalism in all it's glory. Some things are apparently just not fixable.

whiteys fault

 

[AM64]

Non sequitur.

If we haven't given them enough offensive equipment to conduct a western-style offensive, then why have we taught and *encouraged* them to conduct a western-style offensive?

Alternatively, you're arguing that we underestimated Russian ability to stop the UKR offensive.

Which is it?

It's been 2+ months since the offensive began, and there's not much to show for it. Moreover, it doesn't appear that western tactics are working, frankly. Yes, UKR is apparently "winning" the war of artillery attrition underway in the South, but will RUS ever actually hit a point when these stocks are depleted and the front vulnerable?

I hope the US and UKR got a Plan B.

I mean, honestly, waiting for an economic collapse of Russia may be a realistic and potential outcome, but it would require lots of patience and lots of Ukrainian lives.

Can't do a western-style offense across minefields covered by artillery.

 

[Orangeburst]

Can't do a western-style offense across minefields covered by artillery.

the non sexy stuff usually wins the day
just like we have practically abandoned mine sweepers in our navy

 

[MontyPython]

So in short try again. Nuclear armed states do not get invaded.

Here's a good article on the subject of nuclear arms and its effect of actually increasing the likelihood of conventional skirmishes:

Why the US won’t send troops to Ukraine

 

[MontyPython]

Crazy propaganda from Russia

Cringe-worthy. The level of delusion from these jerkoffs is off the chart. How these guys can parrot this garbage day in and day out is beyond me, but one thing's for sure... their collective minds are going to explode when Russia loses its 'SMO' in Ukraine and Putin falls out of window.

 

[hog88]

Here's a good article on the subject of nuclear arms and its effect of actually increasing the likelihood of conventional skirmishes:

Why the US won’t send troops to Ukraine

But not with nuclear armed countries.

 

[LouderVol]

The Europeans are banking on getting gas from Africa to replace Russian gas... Looks like one of these pipeline projects will be in jeopardy now if Niger flips...

Trans-Saharan gas pipeline - Wikipedia

adds another reason for Russia to working on overthrowing Niger then.

 

[LouderVol]

What are you basing this on?

They've lost a good chunk, maybe 30-40% of the territory they held in May 2022.
They don't even hold all of the area's they claim as their own territory.
They haven't won the war.
They have had to deal with the reality of not being as popular amongst the Ukrainians as they thought.
They lost their Black Sea Flag Ship.
All of their great tech has turned into a big nothing. Hypersonic missiles CAN be shot down regularly. The T-14 had to be deployed to their rear lines to stabilize and still wasn't reliable enough to be counted on, and had to be withdrawn from the small military functions its had.
It took them 10 months to take 1 town. Still waiting on that next great offensive you promised was going to happen because Bakhmut was SOOOO key to everything.
They had very public spat with their only offense capable military, that ended with Wagner leaving the frontlines.
They had to draft an additional 500,000, after thinking their 150k were going to do something.
They lost as least that many Russians to defection when the draft was announced.
NATO did expand and increase their border with Russia.
They haven't been able to honor their military alliance with Armenia, who had to lose a chunk of territory.
They have had their allies, like Kazakhstan, publicly rebuke their efforts to draft their army.
They haven't been able to maintain their previous weapon deals with India. India who was supposed to be this new found counter to the west.
Putin hasn't been able to leave the country, even to go hang with his BRICS buddies in SA, because he would get arrested.
The Ukrainians are still able to launch offensives and guerilla attacks. I never thought Ukraine would be at the point to be able to strike at Moscow. Crimea isn't safe for Russians and in danger of getting cut off. and even with how ineffective they have been any offensive by Ukraine is impressive, because no one thought they would still be in this fight.
They have had to dig out T-55s and other old Soviet tech despite claiming the worlds best war manufacturing.
They have gotten desperate enough to renege on their Grain Deals.
They lost a huge chunk of their elite forces. A top Russian general's rare admission that his elite paratroopers suffered heavy casualties in Ukraine was mysteriously removed

 

[evillawyer]

They've lost a good chunk, maybe 30-40% of the territory they held in May 2022.
They don't even hold all of the area's they claim as their own territory.
They haven't won the war.
They have had to deal with the reality of not being as popular amongst the Ukrainians as they thought.
They lost their Black Sea Flag Ship.
All of their great tech has turned into a big nothing. Hypersonic missiles CAN be shot down regularly. The T-14 had to be deployed to their rear lines to stabilize and still wasn't reliable enough to be counted on, and had to be withdrawn from the small military functions its had.
It took them 10 months to take 1 town. Still waiting on that next great offensive you promised was going to happen because Bakhmut was SOOOO key to everything.
They had very public spat with their only offense capable military, that ended with Wagner leaving the frontlines.
They had to draft an additional 500,000, after thinking their 150k were going to do something.
They lost as least that many Russians to defection when the draft was announced.
NATO did expand and increase their border with Russia.
They haven't been able to honor their military alliance with Armenia, who had to lose a chunk of territory.
They have had their allies, like Kazakhstan, publicly rebuke their efforts to draft their army.
They haven't been able to maintain their previous weapon deals with India. India who was supposed to be this new found counter to the west.
Putin hasn't been able to leave the country, even to go hang with his BRICS buddies in SA, because he would get arrested.
The Ukrainians are still able to launch offensives and guerilla attacks. I never thought Ukraine would be at the point to be able to strike at Moscow. Crimea isn't safe for Russians and in danger of getting cut off. and even with how ineffective they have been any offensive by Ukraine is impressive, because no one thought they would still be in this fight.
They have had to dig out T-55s and other old Soviet tech despite claiming the worlds best war manufacturing.
They have gotten desperate enough to renege on their Grain Deals.
They lost a huge chunk of their elite forces. A top Russian general's rare admission that his elite paratroopers suffered heavy casualties in Ukraine was mysteriously removed

Damn @Rasputin_Vol, you got enough crow there to eat for three years. Enjoy!