We control our own destiny!

#26
#26
Sudden Impact said:
This is the way you want it. Not having to wait for it or to depend on others. At this point all we have to do is win out the regular season...for a two seed with one kink in the slaw a UF upset of KY which is about 10% chance of happening. Win out that is it....

As for the tourney anything can happen but with a 2 seed chances get better...for us because of position and we will play a winner 7 or 10 seed, and then the winner of a 11, 6, 3 seed. Then survive the Lower brack to face the winner of 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12 upper bracket.

Assumption it will be KY but this is tournament time and anything can happen.

Our focus is winning out to control destiny.
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The chances of us winning the next 4 in a row are about 10% and that's modest.
Winning the tourney about 1% also modest.
That's the reality of the situation.
 
#27
#27
calban said:
The chances of us winning the next 4 in a row are about 10% and that's modest.
Winning the tourney about 1% also modest.
That's the reality of the situation.
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Anything can happen in the tournament. So not even a concern at the moment.

My comments are directed toward us and the fact that it comes down to 2 games to put us in the best position to get to the dance. Yes we need KY to beat FL, but we need to take care of out business. That is the only factor for us to put us into a position to make it. A bye and a one game at a time in the tournament. It is not impossible but who cares about 10% or 1% chance at this point. Wins against LSU and Vandy and we are in a better position. If FL beats KY we win out we are a 5 seed hell of a difference between a 5 and a 2.

Destiny where it needs to be in our hands and not counting on others. Chances and percentages change each game. Your low on your percentage but that is JYO....mine differs...

I usually don't engage trolls but what is Ky's chances of beating FL.
 
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#28
#28
The highest RPI to make the tourney ever was New Mexico in 1999 at 74. The highest RPI in the last ten years to be in the tourney is at 68. Tennessee is currently sitting at 93. We have a steep hill to climb, but it can be done.
 
#29
#29
Yeah, quality wins is going to be ok. Hopefully the 'last ten games' thing they look at is going to be good. We will have enough wins. But that RPI....that is the killer.
 
#30
#30
Sudden Impact said:
Anything can happen in the tournament. So not even a concern at the moment.

My comments are directed toward us and the fact that it comes down to 2 games to put us in the best position to get to the dance. Yes we need KY to beat FL, but we need to take care of out business. That is the only factor for us to put us into a position to make it. A bye and a one game at a time in the tournament. It is not impossible but who cares about 10% or 1% chance at this point. Wins against LSU and Vandy and we are in a better position. If FL beats KY we win out we are a 5 seed hell of a difference between a 5 and a 2.

Destiny where it needs to be in our hands and not counting on others. Chances and percentages change each game. Your low on your percentage but that is JYO....mine differs...

I usually don't engage trolls but what is Ky's chances of beating FL.
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Not everyone who takes a realistic view of our season is a troll.
I've been an avid supporter of Martin since he was hired when many others were calling him the cheap solution.
I've always held that he could be the best of the Keady crop.
The most optimistic boards give us a 41% chance of winning tonight and a 43% chance of beating Vandy at home if that makes you feel better.
But the chances of us winning 4 in a row are very low and beating KY are even lower.
I would like for nothing better than to see them get into the NCAA tourney.
FLA over KY? Nil.
 
#31
#31
TrueOrange said:
The D2 win doesn't count (so take away a win)

Poor/terrible away from home (as well as awful against ranked)

RPI was in the hundreds last I looked

And awful looking losses to Oakland, charleston, and Austin Peay



here were some numbers i posted back on the 19th, feel free to correct me if they've changed or are no longer correct as of the present





They wouldn't have too hard a time justifying it.


Our bubble's already pretty much deflated, we have to win the tournament if we really want in
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Yes your numbers are pretty old. Tennessee an make the ncaa tournament as an at large without winning the sec tournament.

Win the last 2, and the first 2 in sec tournament and lose in championship and the rpi is somewhere between 45-55.
 
#32
#32
bleedingTNorange said:
Yes your numbers are pretty old. Tennessee an make the ncaa tournament as an at large without winning the sec tournament.

Win the last 2, and the first 2 in sec tournament and lose in championship and the rpi is somewhere between 45-55.
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could you please explain to me how that all has changed, then? that was after the alabama game and all we've done since then is beat Ole Miss and South Carolina.


that and winning those plus two in the tourney only puts us at 19 wins as far as the actual NCAA tournament considerations go
 
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#33
#33
Jackson_Harris said:
Yeah, quality wins is going to be ok. Hopefully the 'last ten games' thing they look at is going to be good. We will have enough wins. But that RPI....that is the killer.
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there's a lot of stress by analysts that they're trying to look more at the whole year now rather than the last 10 having greater weight, or have I misunderstood?
 
#34
#34
calban said:
Not everyone who takes a realistic view of our season is a troll.
I've been an avid supporter of Martin since he was hired when many others were calling him the cheap solution.
I've always held that he could be the best of the Keady crop.
The most optimistic boards give us a 41% chance of winning tonight and a 43% chance of beating Vandy at home if that makes you feel better.
But the chances of us winning 4 in a row are very low and beating KY are even lower.
I would like for nothing better than to see them get into the NCAA tourney.
FLA over KY? Nil.
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Thanks for clearing that up....The LSU game is on my mind first and foremost. I think we have a reasonable shot at the next two games and in the tournament I always believe anything can happen because mentality changes when the tournament starts.

Win the next two games to put us in a position to get to the finals. Lose the next two and we are in a position to do it as a 6 or 7 seed team

I think that KY wins the SEC Tourney hands down. I would love to see us finish 2nd after an 11th preseason prediction because it is a true reflection of the Coach we hired and his ability. He has earned it when this team could have easily collasped after the Austin Peay game. He kept making the adjustments.

Sometimes you have to hit rock bottom to make the turn to rebuild.

The Austin Peay loss in basketball equals the Kentucky Loss in football. CCM adjusted well and is in charge and has recovered from this lost one game at a time.

Dooley needs to show the same resilence.
 
#35
#35
Sudden Impact said:
Thanks for clearing that up....The LSU game is on my mind first and foremost. I think we have a reasonable shot at the next two games and in the tournament I always believe anything can happen because mentality changes when the tournament starts.

Win the next two games to put us in a position to get to the finals. Lose the next two and we are in a position to do it as a 6 or 7 seed team

I think that KY wins the SEC Tourney hands down. I would love to see us finish 2nd after an 11th preseason prediction because it is a true reflection of the Coach we hired and his ability. He has earned it when this team could have easily collasped after the Austin Peay game. He kept making the adjustments.

Sometimes you have to hit rock bottom to make the turn to rebuild.

The Austin Peay loss in basketball equals the Kentucky Loss in football. CCM adjusted well and is in charge and has recovered from this lost one game at a time.

Dooley needs to show the same resilence.
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Play our best road game of the season tonight, pack the house Saturday and shut the Dores.
I'll be dancing in the street with the Knoxville faithful.
 
#37
#37
I'm excited for tonight to see if out guys can accept the challenge of beating a good team on the road. Regardless of what happens Saturday, this road game would be huge confidence booster for this team(that's coming back almost completely intact) for next season.
 
#38
#38
TrueOrange said:
could you please explain to me how that all has changed, then? that was after the alabama game and all we've done since then is beat Ole Miss and South Carolina.


that and winning those plus two in the tourney only puts us at 19 wins as far as the actual NCAA tournament considerations go
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well for starters you said our RPI was in the 100's...after those 2 wins that you refer to our RPI is now around 90. a win tonight and we could be 80, maybe even a bit lower. a win vs vandy saturday and we should be around 70, maybe even a bit lower. get a 1st round bye, and win 2 games in sec t against good opponents and we should move into the 50 range pretty easily.

you say all we have done is beat ole miss and s carolina. well beating ole miss jumped us around 10 spots, and winning at south carolina jumped us around 11-12 spots.

19 win teams with rpi in the 40-50 range have made the tournament plenty of times. for one example off the top of my head...USC got in last year with a 19-14 record and a rpi of 66 and sos of 38. if tennessee won their last 2 games their resume would be much more impressive than USC's last year.
 
#39
#39
bleedingTNorange said:
well for starters you said our RPI was in the 100's...after those 2 wins that you refer to our RPI is now around 90. a win tonight and we could be 80, maybe even a bit lower. a win vs vandy saturday and we should be around 70, maybe even a bit lower. get a 1st round bye, and win 2 games in sec t against good opponents and we should move into the 50 range pretty easily.

you say all we have done is beat ole miss and s carolina. well beating ole miss jumped us around 10 spots, and winning at south carolina jumped us around 11-12 spots.

19 win teams with rpi in the 40-50 range have made the tournament plenty of times. for one example off the top of my head...USC got in last year with a 19-14 record and a rpi of 66 and sos of 38. if tennessee won their last 2 games their resume would be much more impressive than USC's last year.
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Uh...Tn got in last year with 19 wins.
 
#40
#40
cubs3vols said:
Hey bassman, please leave the negative stuff to yourself! None of us care for it! If we win out that means all we have to do is win 2 games in sect and we meet uk in the finals!
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But he knows jaques smith and the hate that the team has for DD bleeds over.
 
#41
#41
calban said:
Uh...Tn got in last year with 19 wins.
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I didn't wanna sound like a homer. Plus I figured I'd show how bad USC RPI em was with 19 wins and that they got it.

4 more wins and loss in sec championship, and our resume is more than tournament worthy.

If actually like to challenge someone to the opposite side of this. Everyone keeps saying how many teams have gotten in with 19 wins blah blah...I'm curious how many teams have been LEFT OUT who were 19-14(10-6) and a RPI around 50???
 
#42
#42
bleedingTNorange said:
I didn't wanna sound like a homer. Plus I figured I'd show how bad USC RPI em was with 19 wins and that they got it.

4 more wins and loss in sec championship, and our resume is more than tournament worthy.

If actually like to challenge someone to the opposite side of this. Everyone keeps saying how many teams have gotten in with 19 wins blah blah...I'm curious how many teams have been LEFT OUT who were 19-14(10-6) and a RPI around 50???
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Just call me Homer.
Most of the rankings I've found are final season w/l and rpi. Hard to find pre tourney.
 
#43
#43
calban said:
Just call me Homer.
Most of the rankings I've found are final season w/l and rpi. Hard to find pre tourney.
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If you go to statsheet under that teams page, go to rankings. Then select whatever year you wanna view, it has each weeks rpi for that team throughout the year.
 
#44
#44
Bassmanbruno said:
I don't see it. We make it to the finals and we would be a sketchy bubble team at best.
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There is NO WAY a team finishes 2nd in the SEC, plays in the SECT CG and doesn't make the tournament. ABSOLUTELY WILL NEVER HAPPEN. So YES, we in fact do control our own destiny. We win out and get to SECT CG and we are dancing.
 
#45
#45
BasketVolKid said:
There is NO WAY a team finishes 2nd in the SEC, plays in the SECT CG and doesn't make the tournament. ABSOLUTELY WILL NEVER HAPPEN. So YES, we in fact do control our own destiny. We win out and get to SECT CG and we are dancing.
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Yeah there is. A team with losses to Austin peay, cofc, Oakland, Georgia, Pitt at home etc. there is more than just conference play.

We easily have the worst ooc performance out of anyone being considered for the ncaat.
 
#46
#46
Ok. So is it just me our does the selection not pay that much attn to wins in the conf tourney? It seems to be that way. I am in the boat of we win the sec tourney is our only shot. Not being mentioned as first four out leads me that way
 
#47
#47
Step 1 in the books!!! Beating the tigers! Step 2....Vandy! I love this team! Great win after a terrible start. The second half was one of the best halves of basketball we have played all year! We only took two 3pt shots in the second half and they were in OT. We hit one and missed one! Coach Martin made some awesome half time adjustments! That my friends is a sign of a great coach! You can say what you want about the man, but we have a good one!
 
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#48
#48
cubs3vols said:
Step 1 in the books!!! Beating the tigers! Step 2....Vandy! I love this team! Great win after a terrible start. The second half was one of the best halves of basketball we have played all year! We only took two 3pt shots in the second half and they were in OT. We hit one and missed one! Coach Martin made some awesome half time adjustments! That my friends is a sign of a great coach! You can say what you want about the man, but we have a good one!
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Absolutely!!!! :rock:
 
#49
#49
bigdaddy said:
Ok. So is it just me our does the selection not pay that much attn to wins in the conf tourney? It seems to be that way. I am in the boat of we win the sec tourney is our only shot. Not being mentioned as first four out leads me that way
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It may be the difference if we're able to beat Vandy and win an SECt game.
 
#50
#50
Bassmanbruno said:
Yeah there is. A team with losses to Austin peay, cofc, Oakland, Georgia, Pitt at home etc. there is more than just conference play.

We easily have the worst ooc performance out of anyone being considered for the ncaat.
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We do have the very legitimate argument that Stokes wasn't on the team for the really bad losses, and the NCAA does take that into account. They also take into account how you finished the season, which works in our favor. We're clearly playing like an NCAA-worthy team right now, even if we weren't in December.

That said, we went into tonight with an RPI of 93. Beating LSU probably didn't change that very much. We'd have to beat the CommodeOdors and then beat at least one, probably two, of the SEC's top teams in the tournament to shift the RPI number anywhere near enough to be considered, even with the extenuating circumstances of the bad losses.
 
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