What if We Lose (Updated 11/19/2024)

#51
#51
aRmo said:
Unfortunately, it will come down to 10-2 TN or 10-2 Alabama. They will choose Alabama because they will have better wins, LSU, UGA vs ours which is just Bama. Im sure the Bama bias will come into play aswell. Just expect us not to get in at 10-2 if we lose.
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that's what I'm afraid of happening... i can see it coming
 
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#56
#56
Ole Miss beating UGA kills us assuming we lose in Athens. We would then need some teams to Slip up, possibilities -> ND @ USC, Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, Alabama @ OK, Penn St @ Minnesota.

It will likely come down choosing At Large Bids between Tennessee, Ole Miss, Bama, Indiana and Penn St. Indiana and Penn St will both have 1 loss, however not beating a single good team.
 
#57
#57
mrmax86 said:
That happens regardless after we play someone.
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sami said:
I've been screaming about this all season. Aside from Oregon and Ohio State, the Big 10 is as much a cupcake conference as the ACC and not far removed from the Big 12. From teams 5 through 18, the Big 10 is a joke, and we really don't know if Indiana is for real while Penn State has been a bully program ever since Franklin got there, beating up on bad Big 10 teams and losing to anyone ranked.

And yet, to the powers that be in the national media and the "committee", the Big 10 is on the same level as the SEC. A playoff will never be the answer as long as bureaucratic committees are deciding who gets to participate. I'll take any 2 or 3-loss SEC team against Indiana, Penn State, BYU, Miami, SMU, or Notre Dame every day of the week, but those schools are going to be in this silly playoff while 3-4 teams that would kick their asses will be left at home.
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lord if this isn’t the truth. When people say the sec is mid, or the committee is sec bias, I just shake my head know this person has their head in the sand. It doesn’t take much effort to see how stacked the sec is. Hell 12 of the 16 teams have been top 25 in recruiting for 2 decades straight.
 
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#61
#61
Daniel_Lincolns_Foot said:
None of Indiana's opponents have a record above .500
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Indiana is not getting in if they lose to Ohio St. The reason for this is pretty simple. Weak schedule and their loss coming ant the end of the season (especially anfter everyone else’s that’s in contention) is going to severely damage their position. They will be behind every SEC team except A&M and A&M could jump them if they beat Texas annd make the SEC title game. Oregon, Penn St, and Ohio get in. SEC gets five. The question is which five?

That really depends on the outcome of UGA/Tennessee and Texas A&M/Texas. Though it could only be four if we beat Georgia and Texas beats the Aggies.

I’m also convinced Boise will be the four seed. BYU has been very lucky and is not a top 10 team. Colorado will be the fifth conference champ.
 
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#62
#62
OH-Vol said:
Ole Miss beating UGA kills us assuming we lose in Athens. We would then need some teams to Slip up, possibilities -> ND @ USC, Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, Alabama @ OK, Penn St @ Minnesota.

It will likely come down choosing At Large Bids between Tennessee, Ole Miss, Bama, Indiana and Penn St. Indiana and Penn St will both have 1 loss, however not beating a single good team.
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Ole Miss and Penn St are in. Unless they play themselves out.
 
#63
#63
OH-Vol said:
Ole Miss beating UGA kills us assuming we lose in Athens. We would then need some teams to Slip up, possibilities -> ND @ USC, Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, Alabama @ OK, Penn St @ Minnesota.

It will likely come down choosing At Large Bids between Tennessee, Ole Miss, Bama, Indiana and Penn St. Indiana and Penn St will both have 1 loss, however not beating a single good team.
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Also ND vs Army I believe is a good chance for us to hop them just in case.

Penn State already has their 1 loss and is ranked over us and the 2-loss SEC teams. They aren't going anywhere unless they lose again.
 
#66
#66
I don't understand how IF we do lose, how GA or Bama knock us out of the playoffs. Not to mention the no loss and 1 loss scrubs.

Damn shame we lost to Arkansas 😒
 
#68
#68
mrmax86 said:
Looking at the CFP Rankings, I am going to attempt to run through the worst-case scenario of events if Tennessee loses to Georgia (close loss) and other teams take care of their business. Remember, this is college football and top 25 teams will lose.

Rk11/5
CFP		11/911/12
CFP		+/-11/1611/19
CFP		+/-11/2311/26
CFP		+/-11/30Final
Rank
1OregonWOregonWOregonWOregonW1
2Ohio StateWOhio StateWOhio StateWOhio StateW5
3GeorgiaLTexas+2WTexasWTexasW2
4MiamiLPenn St+2---Penn StWPenn StW6
5TexasWIndiana+3LIndianaLBYU+1W3
6Penn StateWTennessee+2WBYU+1WND+1W7
7TennesseeWBYU+2WND+1WGeorgia+1W8
8IndianaWND+2WGeorgia+3WOle Miss+1W9
9BYUWAlabama+2---Ole Miss+1WTennessee+1W10
10NDWOle Miss+6WTennessee-4WAlabama+1W11
11AlabamaWGeorgia-8WAlabama-2WIndiana-6W12
12BoiseWBoiseWBoiseWBoiseW
13SMU---Miami-9---MiamiWMiamiW4
14A&M---SMU-1WSMUWSMUW
15LSULA&M-1WA&MWA&ML
16Ole MissWColorado+4WColoradoWColoradoW
17Iowa StateLK State+2WK StateWK StateW
18PittsburghLWazzu+3WWazzuWWazzuW
19K State---Louisville+3WLouisvilleWLouisvilleW
20ColoradoWClemson+3WClemsonWClemsonW
21WazzuWMissouri+3---MissouriWMissouriW
22Louisville---Army+3WArmyLLSUW
23ClemsonWLSU-8WLSUWS CarolinaL
24MissouriWS. CarolinaWS. CarolinaWTulaneW
25ArmyWTulaneWTulane---Iowa StateL

Thoughts?

Again, this is the worst regular season-case scenario and I still have us in the playoff. Even if the committee ranks us below Bama and Indiana, I think we're in.

Not considered here are bid-stealers. Here are a few opinions I have regarding that:
-I think whoever wins the ACCCG will already be from outside the top 12 and is included in this.
-If Texas loses the SECCG, the winner will be one of the at-large teams already in the top 12.
-Indiana has the biggest opportunity to mess our season up, by either beating Ohio State or winning the BIGCG. Either way if they're above us, we're the 11 or 12 seed, I think.
-Colorado could steal a bid also. Sad, but true.

Tonight's rankings matter a lot. If they keep us above Indiana, then that will matter when it gets down to the last week.

Corrected Post
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Melt down
 
#70
#70
If you are going to play the what if game, here you go. To make the final playoff you have to be one of the 5 highest ranked conference title winners or be one of the 7 @ large spots.
Right now, a Georgia loss would knock us from 7 down to around 11 or 12. That's right on the borderline of being out of contention. And that's because the committee isn't picking and choosing random 2-loss teams SEC teams to put into the playoffs. They are ranking all of the teams in order and after you get the four highest rated conference champs it is going to go to the final CFP rankings to seed the other remaining schools into the other 8 "non-bye" spots. Notre Dame being the only potential wild card in the situation. You can either win your way up the rankings or you can lose your way down. But that's all that's going to matter if you don't win your league.
 
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