What is it going to take..

#1
bornbleddinorange

bornbleddinorange

we'll get em next year
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#1
for us to make the ncaa tournament? I know that we are a 500 team, and will likely be 500 in the conference. We have a big win against UF, but a loss against Peay to cancel it out. Of course Uconn has been struggling lately and it doesnt look like that win will help. For the basketball gurus out there how do we need to finish to get to the big dance? I figure 2 wins in the conference tourney will have to happen as well.

V,B
 
#3
#3
bornbleddinorange said:
for us to make the ncaa tournament? I know that we are a 500 team, and will likely be 500 in the conference. We have a big win against UF, but a loss against Peay to cancel it out. Of course Uconn has been struggling lately and it doesnt look like that win will help. For the basketball gurus out there how do we need to finish to get to the big dance? I figure 2 wins in the conference tourney will have to happen as well.

V,B
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We would have to win the SEC tourney.
We could win out and still not make it unless Bama, Vandy ,Arky and Ole Miss went on 5 game losing streaks.
Too much early damage and no wins on the road.
 
#4
#4
The UConn game WILL help regardless. Their RPI>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>our RPI. Very simple. The loss against Peay hurts, yes, but doesn't cancel out the UConn win or the previous Florida win.
 
#5
#5
UT has to win the SEC tourney to get in the dance. If they run the table in the SEC from here on out and finish at 11-5 and win 2 games in the SEC tourney, the chances are about 15% that they get in. The UConn win isn't going be worth a dime come selection Sunday. If they were to somehow beat UK in the tourney it would help, but with RPI, strength of schedule and a few of the bad losses, its SEC tourney champs or bust. JMO
 
#6
#6
Tobias Harris and Scotty Hopson returning. It's a transitional season and without a true point guard this team may make it into the NIT. If they make the NCAA expectations would have exceeded more than expected. If Tatum and McBee can get on a consistent hot streak this team just might go somewhere.
 
#7
#7
Hardwood_fanatic said:
UT has to win the SEC tourney to get in the dance. If they run the table in the SEC from here on out and finish at 11-5 and win 2 games in the SEC tourney, the chances are about 15% that they get in. The UConn win isn't going be worth a dime come selection Sunday. If they were to somehow beat UK in the tourney it would help, but with RPI, strength of schedule and a few of the bad losses, its SEC tourney champs or bust. JMO
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I only disagree to the extent that I think winning the rest of the regular season games would give UT a decent bubble profile entering the SECT. I think you're very low at 15%.

15% is probably a better estimation of the odds of UT winning the rest of the regular season games.
 
#8
#8
supersmo18 said:
The UConn game WILL help regardless. Their RPI>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>our RPI. Very simple. The loss against Peay hurts, yes, but doesn't cancel out the UConn win or the previous Florida win.
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Actually when figuring RPI the AP loss at home hurt us more than the Uconn win helped us.
Home losses are factored at 1.4 while Home wins are only factored in at .6.
Road wins are factored at 1.4. We're at RPI 134 because we don't have any road wins.
Not enough games left in the schedule to make it up.
 
#10
#10
bornbleddinorange said:
for us to make the ncaa tournament? I know that we are a 500 team, and will likely be 500 in the conference. We have a big win against UF, but a loss against Peay to cancel it out. Of course Uconn has been struggling lately and it doesnt look like that win will help. For the basketball gurus out there how do we need to finish to get to the big dance? I figure 2 wins in the conference tourney will have to happen as well.

V,B
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no way. we have to end up with a winning record to make the nit. we can do this by winning out at home and beating s carolina on the road. we then need to win at least one sec tourney game. i would like our chances in the nit. possible first round match-up---- va tech.
 
#11
#11
ukvols said:
I only disagree to the extent that I think winning the rest of the regular season games would give UT a decent bubble profile entering the SECT. I think you're very low at 15%.

15% is probably a better estimation of the odds of UT winning the rest of the regular season games.
Click to expand...

More often than not, I would say that 11-5 in the SEC East would get you in the tourney all day long, but that normally accompanies a single digit loss column. 12 losses without any huge wins (I just don't believe UF is a "tier 1" win) and an average SOS is just a huge hurdle. Any Big East team that is 2 or 3 games over .500 in conference with less than 10 losses will get the nod before UT over and over. But thats JMO, OMO.
 
#12
#12
I still think we can lose at bama and win the rest, and win 2 in the tourney and get in as a bubble. That'll give us 2 wins vs Florida, win vs candy, wins @lsu, vs ark. If we beat say Georgia, and bama/candy in tourney I say we get in.

18-13 reg seas(10-6) +2 in. Sec T= 20-13

More importantly IMO in 18 games with stokes we will be 12-6. I think the committee will take into consideration stokes addition, and look at how we've played with him. If we show 12-6 over our last 18 with wins @flor, vs Uconn, vs candy, vs bama(sec t) I think we get in.

I think tomorrows game is huge because their rpi is very high and would provide us a huge boost. If we don't win tomorrow then I think sec t champs is only way.
 
#13
#13
calban said:
Actually when figuring RPI the AP loss at home hurt us more than the Uconn win helped us.
Home losses are factored at 1.4 while Home wins are only factored in at .6.
Road wins are factored at 1.4. We're at RPI 134 because we don't have any road wins.
Not enough games left in the schedule to make it up.
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Well then, that sucks. :ermm: It was a good thought at least. :)

I can see us making the NIT fairly easily though. Mid-level seed.
 
#14
#14
Hardwood_fanatic said:
More often than not, I would say that 11-5 in the SEC East would get you in the tourney all day long, but that normally accompanies a single digit loss column. 12 losses without any huge wins (I just don't believe UF is a "tier 1" win) and an average SOS is just a huge hurdle. Any Big East team that is 2 or 3 games over .500 in conference with less than 10 losses will get the nod before UT over and over. But thats JMO, OMO.
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So Uconn is 15-8 (5-6)in big east, they finish the big east season 3-4 finish season 18-12(8-10) and they get in over us at 19-12(11-5). With us beating them?
 
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#15
#15
Like I've been saying this whole time, it's not gonna happen in all likeliness. We'd have to win the tourney.
 
#16
#16
How the hell did we lose so
Many games out of conference... Besides the Maui... Htf did we lose to teams like pee
 
#17
#17
I'm with the Win out the regular season plus 2 in the SEC tourney crowd.
We will see what we do in gainsville. They are looking for payback for the loss in Knoxville and the humiliation of their last game to Kentucky. Should be a battle. I hope.
 
#18
#18
bleedingTNorange said:
So Uconn is 15-8 (5-6)in big east, they finish the big east season 3-4 finish season 18-12(8-10) and they get in over us at 19-12(11-5). With us beating them?
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No, neither of the stipulations you just listed are compatible with what I said. If they are 2 or 3 games OVER .500, and have a SINGLE (or lost 10) digit loss column. In other words, If UConn went 5-2 the rest of the way out and finished at 10-8 in conference and 20-10 overall, then they are likely getting in before UT, because they would have wins over Syracuse. But they ain't running the table, that ship is headed straight for bottom.
 
#19
#19
ImTheCrew said:
How the hell did we lose so
Many games out of conference... Besides the Maui... Htf did we lose to teams like pee
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Inconsistent shooting and poor defense to start the season. Defense starting clicking after the second memphis loss but the offense still is sporatic.
 
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#20
#20
ImTheCrew said:
How the hell did we lose so
Many games out of conference... Besides the Maui... Htf did we lose to teams like pee
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The team played poorly. They decided they didn't want to play defense, and their offense isn't good enough to win ball games. Plain and simple. However only 2 of the losses are really "bad" losses, Peay and UGA. And there is the argument that UGA was on the road in the SEC.
 
#21
#21
Our RPI is just too high to recover. We can win out and win 2 games in the SEC tourney and it will still be too high to get a bid. Too much damage to overcome.
 
#22
#22
Hardwood_fanatic said:
No, neither of the stipulations you just listed are compatible with what I said. If they are 2 or 3 games OVER .500, and have a SINGLE (or lost 10) digit loss column. In other words, If UConn went 5-2 the rest of the way out and finished at 10-8 in conference and 20-10 overall, then they are likely getting in before UT, because they would have wins over Syracuse. But they ain't running the table, that ship is headed straight for bottom.
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I thought you meant 2 or 3 games over 500 at seasons end not remaining games. My apologies. With your scenario you're absolutely right, my bad.
 
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#23
#23
bleedingTNorange said:
I thought you meant 2 or 3 games over 500 at seasons end not remaining games. My apologies. With your scenario you're absolutely right, my bad.
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No, thats what I did mean. If they end up at 10-8 in the conference, then that is 2 games over .500. I think were riding the same horse here, just in different saddles.
 
#24
#24
Hardwood_fanatic said:
No, thats what I did mean. If they end up at 10-8 in the conference, then that is 2 games over .500. I think were riding the same horse here, just in different saddles.
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Yea I thought you were talking overall being just over 500 not conference. I gotcha now. Meaning te are 15-8 they could go 3-4 down the stretch. Simple misunderstanding.
 
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