What method is more effective?

#76
#76
Darth_Shiveman said:
Counterpoints:

Our only reliable TE the last two years ends up at Bama.

2 of our key OL recruits enroll early at schools that didn't slow play them.

We're 2 men deep at CB after Michael Williams is thrown off the team in 2014

A large number of special teams contributors and players in the two deep of the best team we've had in a decade never enroll.
Click to expand...

Wolf at Bama?

Thanks for making my point why he shouldnt be listed here. Very well thought of kid during he process.


Moseley would have flipped at any point


Hall and Thomas could have been flipped or held off as well IMO.
 
Last edited:
#77
#77
Darth_Shiveman said:
You're assuming that it's impossible for the approach with a lower rate of success to be a more effective overall approach to building a roster.

That's very debatable.
Click to expand...

Perhaps a mixture.

Instead of taking 3-4 guys every class that are fringy just take 1-2
 
#78
#78
BruinVol said:
I am sorry I missed that part.


Even using rivals it's pretty clear where this is heading with which option has a higher rate of success
Click to expand...

The only conclusions I draw is that we take more 3 stars early than we do late (probably because we are chasing 4 and 5 stars who have waited to make their choice). It seems more of our earlier 3 stars become busts simply because there are more of them to begin with.
 
#79
#79
BruinVol said:
Wolf at Bama?

Thanks for making my point why he shouldnt be listed here. Very well thought of kid during he process.


Moseley would have flipped at any point


Hall and Thomas could have been flipped as well IMO.
Click to expand...

Lol complete conjecture that you can in no way back up regarding the others flipping.

As for Wolf, you're forgetting that his recruitment started blowing up AFTER we took his commitment. But yeah, you're totally right, we should've just told him we needed to see his senior film and waited for Saban to stumble on tape of him and offer him first.

Solid strategy, Bruin.
 
#80
#80
Dust10 said:
The only conclusions I draw is that we take more 3 stars early than we do late (probably because we are chasing 4 and 5 stars who have waited to make their choice). It seems more of our earlier 3 stars become busts simply because there are more of them to begin with.
Click to expand...

Agreed except for the last line. Not just more are bust but also a higher %
 
#81
#81
Darth_Shiveman said:
Lol complete conjecture that you can in no way back up regarding the others flipping.

As for Wolf, you're forgetting that his recruitment started blowing up AFTER we took his commitment. But yeah, you're totally right, we should've just told him we needed to see his senior film and waited for Saban to stumble on tape of him and offer him first.

Solid strategy, Bruin.
Click to expand...

Lol

Again I am courting wolf as a success just for you. That's gets that option all the way 25%.

An alarming low success rate iMO.
 
Last edited:
#83
#83
BruinVol said:
Agreed except for the last line. Not just more are bust but also a higher %
Click to expand...

Unless you bring in the 2013 class like you originally wanted to.

3 star successes: Kendrick, Smith, Sutton, Vereen, Dobbs, Foreman, Vickers, Weisman

3 star busts: Ferguson, Bransiel, Brown, Jenkins, Johnson, Jones, Lee, Miller, Quinn

That's 8 successes and 9 busts. Also, 6 of 9 busts were late additions.
 
#84
#84
Dust10 said:
Unless you bring in the 2013 class like you originally wanted to.

3 star successes: Kendrick, Smith, Sutton, Vereen, Dobbs, Foreman, Vickers, Weisman

3 star busts: Ferguson, Bransiel, Brown, Jenkins, Johnson, Jones, Lee, Miller, Quinn

That's 8 successes and 9 busts. Also, 6 of 9 busts were late additions.
Click to expand...

Most of those were dd recruits
Sutton
Vereen
Kendrick
Smith



Dobbs,
Foreman
Vickers
Foreman
Wiesman

They Go into the category of successes for late commits. Option 2
 
Last edited:
#86
#86
BruinVol said:
Most of those were dd recruits


Dobbs,
Foreman
Vickers
Foreman

Go into the category of successes for late commits. Option 2
Click to expand...

I do not deny that, but was stating that Bransiel, Brown, Jenkins, Jones, Lee, Miller, and Quinn all belong to Butch. Late additions, all busts.
 
#87
#87
BruinVol said:
Most of those were dd recruits
Sutton
Vereen
Kendrick
Smith


Dobbs,
Foreman
Vickers
Foreman

Go into the category of successes for late commits. Option 2
Click to expand...
Branisel, Miller, Brown, Jones, Lemond Johnson, Jenkins, Quinn were not Dooley recruits.


But FTR, I don't think that class should count for much anyway because it was basically Butch and co slinging their s*** at the wall for 2 months and seeing what would stick.
 
#88
#88
Dust10 said:
I do not deny that, but was stating that Bransiel, Brown, Jenkins, Jones, Lee, Miller, and Quinn all belong to Butch. Late additions, all busts.
Click to expand...

Yes any butch committ belongs in this

Still a much higher rate of success even when including those
 
#90
#90
Darth_Shiveman said:
Branisel, Miller, Brown, Jones, Lemond Johnson, Jenkins, Quinn were not Dooley recruits.


But FTR, I don't think that class should count for much anyway because it was basically Butch and co slinging their s*** at the wall for 2 months and seeing what would stick.
Click to expand...

Funny thing is butch did a much better job evaluating the lower ranked kids in that class than he has since. Much higher than 25%
 
#91
#91
We really need to revisit this topic in two to three years when there is more data and more time to determine which players were successes and busts. This current class has 9 3 stars so far, some were early additions, some were late. I'll be interested to see how they turn out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#92
#92
Dust10 said:
We really need to revisit this topic in two to three years when there is more data and more time to determine which players were successes and busts. This current class has 9 3 stars so far, some were early additions, some were late. I'll be interested to see how they turn out.
Click to expand...

Agreed

Can you list the 9 and separate them into early and late?

Honestly I haven't even followed the individual threads this year much at all
 
Last edited:
#93
#93
BruinVol said:
Funny thing is butch did a much better job evaluating the lower ranked kids in that class than he has since. Much higher than 25%
Click to expand...

Or maybe the overall talent on the roster has gotten better and it's harder to get on the field. Also, guys that haven't been here as long haven't had enough time to tell if they are hits or misses in some cases.
 
#94
#94
BigZiti09 said:
Or maybe the overall talent on the roster has gotten better and it's harder to get on the field. Also, guys that haven't been here as long haven't had enough time to tell if they are hits or misses in some cases.
Click to expand...

That's why I didn't include anyone in last years class unless they left before fall camp
 
#95
#95
Early 2013 Busts: Ferguson
Late 2013 Busts: Bransiel, Brown, Jenkins, Lemond Johnson, Jones, Lee, Miller, Quinn

Early 2013 Successes: Kendrick, Smith, Sutton, Vereen
Late 2013 Successes: Dobbs, Foreman, Vickers, Weisman

These are 3 star Rivals players only btw.

Edit: Looks like you meant 2016, my bad.
 
#96
#96
This thread really doesn't make any sense Bruin. No offense. This is one of those things where it only really makes sense in your head. You are trying to compare two things that aren't really comparable.

I'm really not even sure you're going for here.

Tim Hart was asked to blueshirt and he didn't want to. BFD.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#97
#97
BruinVol said:
Funny thing is butch did a much better job evaluating the lower ranked kids in that class than he has since. Much higher than 25%
Click to expand...

Sample size + time.

At this point last year many on here assumed Wiesman, Foreman, and Vickers (who still shouldn't really count since he kind of just happened to fall into our laps the summer after signing day 2013) had all been recruited over and would be buried on the depth chart the rest of their careers. Wiesman because he couldn't snap the ball, Foreman because he was outplayed by Moseley in 2014 and almost moved to offense, Vickers because he never saw more than mop up duty and was a 260 lb DT behind 2 returning starters and 2 incoming 5*s.

Part of the reason not to close the door on the other 3*s we have yet (as well as some of the guys we lost to attrition who could end up proving their evaluation to be correct at another school).
 
#98
#98
2016 Early: D Henderson, Brooks, CFA, C Henderson, Johnson, Pope
2016 Late: Buchanan, Niehaus, Tatum
 
#99
#99
BigZiti09 said:
This thread really doesn't make any sense Bruin. No offense. This is one of those things where it only really makes sense in your head. You are trying to compare two things that aren't really comparable.

I'm really not even sure you're going for here.

Tim Hart was asked to blueshirt and he didn't want to. BFD.
Click to expand...

Makes perfect sense


Lower rated kids we take early are at best successful at a 25% rate

Lower rated kids we take late are successful at a much higher rate

The above are facts.

Now for the opinion. We should take less lower rated kids early to avoid bad PR and Low success rates
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top