Kentucky had probably their best opportunity to beat a decent UT team last year. I don’t think they have ever beat us when we were ranked, definitely not in recent history.
They actually had a great game plan. Tennessee had been exposed last year as having a fairly weak run defense, while still having a dangerous quick strike offense. Kentucky wasn’t a great matchup for us…..decent defense, with a good running game led by an excellent offensive line. They ran the ball pretty well with CRod, Smoke and some designed runs and bailouts from Levis. They used a ton of clock, having the ball for 46 minutes of game time. They put up points, 42. All in all, that should have worked. But, as has happened time and time again, the Vols under Hooker hit the quick strikes, gaining 33 yards per minute on Kentucky, and putting up 38 points on offense. Taylor housed a poorly thrown pass to add 7 from the defense. Vols win.
So what has happened this year? Tim Banks has fixed what was our single biggest defensive issue from last year. We now have a Top 10 (almost top 5) run defense. So, you have to throw to beat us, and we run a secondary scheme that makes it near impossible to get behind us. The “terrible Tennessee defense” gives up .288 points per play. The “Kentucky defense that is better than Bama” gives up .309. Bama is .260……not that we want facts to get in the way of Kat delusion.
So, statistically, how does Kentucky beat Tennessee? You have to run at least 50% more plays on offense, and you have to force the Vols into short yardage plays. Basically, you need to play like Tennessee. Bama played fast against us. Florida played fast against us. If either had been able to adjust to stop the deep ball, or if we had a QB with a little less talent than Heisman Hooker…..we would have been in trouble.
Kentucky’s chance was last year. It didn’t happen, and now the machine is even better on both sides of the ball, and Kentucky is far worse off. A defense that has shown no improvement, an offensive line that is getting Levis killed, and a run game that is about to run into a wall.
Can Kentucky win? Sure, but they’re going to need help from Tennessee to do it, and that help is a lot less likely to come with a thunderous, sold out Neyland at night. Sorry Kat’s, but you’re walking into a buzzsaw. A confident, battle tested, talented team that never quits with 100,000 plus screaming maniacs at their back. See you in Neyland.