Around 50%.
I'd give us a 40% - 45% chance of beating Florida and maybe a 10% - 20% chance of beating Oregon.
Florida's defense looked impressive against Miami, but their offense was more suspect. It's true that turnovers held them back, but they had difficulty getting into the end zone in spite of that. Also, not really impressive running the ball. If our D plays well, we have a great shot against Florida.
Oregon, on the other hand, seems like a bad match-up for us. They are going to relentlessly attack our secondary from the first snap onwards. Feel like our best chance against them is to slow the game down and run, run, run. Still, tough to see our D stopping that offensive machine enough to win.