Why I'm still not panicking (caution: a hint of optimism here!)

[sjt18]

To your first point, if you can't distinguish night from day, you are summarily disqualified to speak on either.

The rest is moot.

I can distinguish a gameplan that is too conservative to beat VANDY from one that is not... with the season on the line.

And no... the rest is not moot... just inconvenient.

 

[sjt18]

So how much better was Saban's first regular season record than Shula's last? You keep making comparisons but ignore what you are comparing it to.

How much better was the whole season? Both he and Shula went to low level bowls those years. Saban won his... and then let's talk about what he did his first year at LSU.

And you keep ignoring the context of that first year at Bama. Jones has boasted that this team bought in better than either of his previous two stops. Saban had to kick guys of the team.

 

[itouchedthe_bUTch]

People calling for butchs head don't realize that if we lose another coach we will be worse than we are now. He inherited probably the single worst Tennessee football team of all time and people are bashing him. Yeah our offense was horrible but if Saban was coaching this team do you think he would win? I do think our offensive coordinator has been poor play calling and things but he does have a freshman quarterback and kids who have run this style of offense for one year. Butch Jones is the best thing to happen to Tennessee football in years and I know it's rough times but you don't appreciate the highs if you've never been low and with his recruiting and his determination we will be better. The future is bright. Last years team was loaded with talent and they under achieved unlike this years team which finished where everyone thought we would. Trade our Carolina win with the vandy loss and we still finish 5-7 so there is absolutely no reason for anyone to disapprove of butch jones. I mean he was willing to leave a program that he had contending for conference championships each year to come and rebuild a great program. I believe in our coach.

 

[daj2576]

How much better was the whole season? Both he and Shula went to low level bowls those years. Saban won his... and then let's talk about what he did his first year at LSU.

You constantly shift the paradigm.

Saban's first year showed great improvement, you say. Then you admit the difference between the season that got Shula fired and Saban hired was a low level bowl game. 1 win, and same regular season record was what you are citing as ample improvement. Then when I point that out you shift to Saban at LSU (as if the cupboards were bare and he waived a magic wand and won).

Saban kicked guys off the team? How many walk ons did he start? Context indeed.

If it is only coaching, why no national championships while he was at MSU?

But you arent here to argue justifiable reality. You are here to attempt to justify your angst by throwing up straw men. You know, like your claim that somehow Franklin and Muschamp are similar tiered coaches, when in fact they are night and day different in their impact on talent.

I think you are completely justified in feeling however you wish about Jones. In fact, I don't disagree with some of your thoughts. I just find your method of supporting those feelings to be a disingenuous attempt to appear grounded and rational.

 

[sjt18]

I bet Bama fans felt assured after a loss to a highly inferior La-Monroe team. Again, Saban ended with the same regular season record as Shula yet you give him a pass because that somehow assured fans of brighter days?

You are relying on probably the weakest argument there is when you cite Saban's one bad year at Bama. And you keep ignoring the actual "context" of that year. They had ALOT of internal problems that Jones has denied UT has had.

You are using what you know about Bama now to ignore that his first year was of little change than the previous year. You also justify it because he had won a championship at LSU. Frankly winning one championship doesn't prove he is capable of ever repeating that. See: Fulmer, Chizik, Trussel, Brown, Spurrier, Stoops.

You are not seriously trying to say that Saban wasn't more of a sure bet than Jones are you?

 

[sjt18]

You constantly shift the paradigm.

Saban's first year showed great improvement, you say.

Really? I said that year specifically showed "great" improvement? Where did I say that?

Then you admit the difference between the season that got Shula fired and Saban hired was a low level bowl game. 1 win, and same regular season record was what you are citing as ample improvement. Then when I point that out you shift to Saban at LSU (as if the cupboards were bare and he waived a magic wand and won).

The UT cupboard was not bare enough to justify the last 4 games... and especially the last one.

If Saban's first year at Bama is relevant then his first year at LSU was as well. He took over a program there that had not won in a long time. Dinardo was 6-15 in his last 21 games. Saban took them to 8-4 in his first year there. That's what good coaches do. Sumlin did. Freeze did. Malzahn has.... It is "typical" that good coaches make an immediate positive impact in both play and wins. It is atypical when they don't.

Saban kicked guys off the team? How many walk ons did he start? Context indeed.

Yes. He had a lot of turmoil that first year and was roundly criticized here and elsewhere for not renewing some scholarships.

If it is only coaching, why no national championships while he was at MSU?

Where did I say it was "only" coaching? That kind of tactic is really pretty unbecoming of you.

But you arent here to argue justifiable reality. You are here to attempt to justify your angst by throwing up straw men.

LOL... I would say the EXACT same thing of you... and cite the two obvious ones in the very post I'm responding to.

You know, like your claim that somehow Franklin and Muschamp are similar tiered coaches, when in fact they are night and day different in their impact on talent.

That's not a strawman. It is an opinion and an example... could be wrong or better... but it isn't a "strawman".

I think you are completely justified in feeling however you wish about Jones. In fact, I don't disagree with some of your thoughts. I just find your method of supporting those feelings to be a disingenuous attempt to appear grounded and rational.

That's mostly because you don't seem to want to really consider that the hire might have been a huge mistake. I don't want it to be... but am willing to consider that possibility and see the things that point that direction.

 

[daj2576]

Really? I said that year specifically showed "great" improvement? Where did I say that?

The UT cupboard was not bare enough to justify the last 4 games... and especially the last one.

If Saban's first year at Bama is relevant then his first year at LSU was as well. He took over a program there that had not won in a long time. Dinardo was 6-15 in his last 21 games. Saban took them to 8-4 in his first year there. That's what good coaches do. Sumlin did. Freeze did. Malzahn has.... It is "typical" that good coaches make an immediate positive impact in both play and wins. It is atypical when they don't.

Yes. He had a lot of turmoil that first year and was roundly criticized here and elsewhere for not renewing some scholarships.

Where did I say it was "only" coaching? That kind of tactic is really pretty unbecoming of you.

LOL... I would say the EXACT same thing of you... and cite the two obvious ones in the very post I'm responding to.

That's not a strawman. It is an opinion and an example... could be wrong or better... but it isn't a "strawman".



That's mostly because you don't seem to want to really consider that the hire might have been a huge mistake. I don't want it to be... but am willing to consider that possibility and see the things that point that direction.

Here is the bottom line: we can go round and round but you are apparently convinced of your position. You believe based on the losses that hiring Jones was a mistake. I get that.

I greedily seek information. I love it. Good information helps me decipher and formulate hypothesis of how I view the world. That is why I tend to engage you, as you appear to be presenting a conclusion based on indisputable facts. The problem I have, is that I tend to agree with your conclusions, so I dig into what you are saying. I can't find any linear argument that you make that doesn't devolved into a reliance on questionable data presented as fact. (ex: Franklin and Muschamp are third tier coaches - only one is, the other is the largest over-performer in the SEC; That the measure of a coach should be improvement in the first season, except that doesn't comport to a factual reading of Saban's first at Bama, or Malzahn's first at Auburn [According to talent, an evaluation that you loosely adhere to, Malzahn lost to a less talented LSU team, hence a -1 talent predicted performance modifier]; etc). Obviously I could go on, but it is pointless-moot.

If you are really after data, here is some, and the context to go with it: In relation to talent, Dooley had more than Jones and under-performed by 4 games last year. IF (big IF) Jones beats Kentucky, he has only under-performed by 2 games (an improvement by half from the previous season), and will have 2 SEC wins (double from the previous 2 seasons). One of those two wins comes from a ranked team (something that hadn't happened at UT since 2009). Continuing on with this hypothetical, Jones will then end the season 7 points from a 7-5 season. All of this during a season where a new system is being installed on both sides of the ball from the previous year.

So that ultimately contextualizes the season that you are, apparently, viewing as an abject failure. It is an under-performance in my book. But to read too much into the losses against teams who have exceptional talent gaps against us (Auburn/Alabama), takes away from attempting to decipher the losses against the teams that don't (Vanderbilt/Mizzou). Both of those teams are over-performing this season at an undeniable and quantifiable rate (3 & 5 games respectively). It is also ignoring context (your favorite) to look at our losses to UF and UGA as being significant without looking at the attrition of those rosters post UT game. In that respect, I can hold out UF, who not only had talent issues when we played them, but who also has the largest under-performing coach in the SEC. That game was certainly a lost opportunity, in context. UGA conversely, suffered a couple game under-performance due to injuries but finished the SEC season exactly as talent predicted their season would in win/loss totals.

So what is my conclusion? We won against APSU, WKU, USA, and SCAR as talent would predict. We have over a 70% chance to beat KY, as talent would predict. We missed an opportunity to beat a questionably coached Florida team. We lost badly against Bama and Auburn who had substantial talent gaps against us. We "barely" lost go UGA, who has the best attrition adjusted roster in the SEC, pre-injury. We lost to Mizzou and Vandy whom we had substantial talent gaps against, but who are the two biggest over performing teams in the SEC.

Ultimately, the games that hurt the worst insofar as my view of coaching ability and performance based on talent are UF and Vandy. Those are two winnable games against key opponents that could have completely changed the trajectory of the season. I believe you would agree that Bama and Auburn were games we "should" have lost, but you are worried about how we lost. I believe that "context" requires a different talent view of the Mizzou game, that team is doing something exceptional and did so after having a bad season last year. There are things to like, things to dislike, and many questions yet to be answered. If you see this season as a failure, or the hire of Jones to be a failure, I would submit that you are premature but you are entitled to that position.

 

[CountVolcula]

Auburn fan here. The problem with poor coaching staffs and clueless head-coaches is that "5-star" talent all of a sudden looks like 2 and 3-star talent if you dont have the right leadership in place.

Gene Chizik recruited. He won 3 games last year. The great majority of his highly recruited players looked like they didn't even understand the basic fundamentals of football.

If you guys are "holding out hope" on your recruiting saving you then I have some bad news for you. This league is too hard for that; all of the top teams recruit. Butch Jones and company are going to need to start showing that they can actually make some sort of impact on the field for you guys to win.

Thank you

You " get it "